Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
085
FXUS63 KPAH 310558
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1158 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1158 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016

Updated aviation discussion for 06Z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 846 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016

All available guidance indicates that the surface pressure
gradient will be tightening up significantly overnight, which
means that most of the area is likely to see lows this evening,
with a modest warming trend overnight. So far this evening, winds
have been weaker and temperatures have been lower than originally
forecast. Have updated to catch up to the most recent
observations, but the end result by 12Z Sunday will be the same.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 116 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016

Main stories in the short deal first with the unseasonably mild
temperatures through Sunday...then the chances for showers with a
cold frontal passage Sunday night into early Monday.

Brisk south-southwest winds ahead of the front will ensure very
mild conditions for late January through Sunday. After highs well
into the 60s today, we may not see much of a diurnal fall off
tonight as southerly winds continue and high clouds begin to
increase. In fact, will probably challenge record high minimums
overnight...which are running in the mid 50s (55 at PAH and 53 at
EVV).

Clouds will in turn keep readings from getting too far out of
hand on Sunday, but readings will still make it back into the 60s
at most locations. Aforementioned cold front crosses the region
Sunday night into early Monday, bringing with it our next good chc
of showers. Not much mid/upper support with the front and low lvl
convergence looks meager, so should not be a big rain maker, and
am leaving thunder out at this point. High pressure will then
bring us a brief cool down and drying trend for the rest of the
day Monday, ahead of the next stronger system that will be
approaching the region Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 116 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016

Fairly high confidence on thunderstorms Tuesday. Medium confidence
on the rest for the extended.

There is the typical timing difference among the models. With the
GFS being a little faster than the ECMWF. However the Canadian GFS
and the ECMWF agree on Tuesday as favored time. Now looking at
instability in a layer 1000-850mb we picked up CAPE 150-200+ j/kg2.
Lifted index around negative 2 across the area with elevated
instability as well with K index readings in the 30s. We have 38
knots of shear from surface to 1 kilometer and 60 knots sfc to 2
kilometers. So this system has the potential for severe weather.
Most likely it will be in the form of a squall line. A tornado can
not be ruled out with this magnitude of shear and respectable
instability for this time of year. Also with the slower or later
arrival time it would bring the brunt of the storm through later in
the day than previously thought. This will only increase the chance
of severe weather. It definitely deserves close monitoring.

This system should exit the area overnight be east of us by sunrise
Wednesday morning. After Tuesday we remain dry with temperature very
close to normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1158 PM CST SAT JAN 30 2016

VFR conditions will deteriorate as a cold front approaches on
Sunday. Strong southwest flow brings increasing low level
moisture, which results in MVFR cigs, and at times IFR cigs,
through most of the period. Light showers are likely in SW IN and
W KY tomorrow evening ahead of the front, with lesser chances in
S IL and SE MO. Southwest winds will increase to AOA 10 kts with
higher gusts early this morning, then peak to AOA 12 kts with
higher gusts during the afternoon. Front will push through during
the evening, causing winds to shift west and eventually northwest
by the end of the period.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION UPDATE...BP2
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...KH



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.