Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 270452

1152 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2014

Issued at 1152 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 130 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

H5 low spinning across the Upper Midwest, will gradually phase
with a low over TX and drift SE across the region through the
short term portion of the forecast. Moisture will be fairly
limited for the duration, with deeper moisture remaining to
our east and southeast. Cannot rule out small chances of
convection by Saturday evening toward KY/TN state line, with
chances lakes east Saturday night. Sunday through Sunday night
chances will only slightly increase across the SE 1/2 of the
area, given the glancing shot of slightly better moisture. Due to
the lower chances of rain, highs the past 2 forecast cycles have
been adjusted up slightly. Lows are close to a blend of MOS and
base model output.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

Models show high pressure building in for the early part of the
work week. On Thursday, GFS brings low pressure into the Great
Lakes region. This will drag a cold front across the middle
Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys, spreading rain across the PAH
fa. ECMWF is much slower with this feature and holds off any rain
until late Thursday night. Stuck with the quicker GFS and
continued with low chance pops for showers and thunderstorms
Thursday into Friday. Above seasonal temperatures are expected
through Thursday, with a cool down to near seasonal temperatures
expected Friday if the timing of the cold front is close to


Issued at 1152 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

Little change to the TAFs with this issuance. KCGI is already
starting to drop, and still expect it to at least periodically
drop to VLIFR levels through daybreak. In addition, KPAH has already
gone down to MVFR levels, so it may also try to tank later tonight.
Elsewhere, no reductions are expected. The latest guidance has
slowed down the arrival of 3-5kft clouds, mainly until Saturday
evening. Winds will be light from the northeast or east through
the period.




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