Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 140844
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
244 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 244 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

Average confidence in the short term due to continued subtle model
differences and multiple chances for precipitation. A soggy period
for sure with temperatures remaining above normal through the period.

At the beginning of the period a quasi-stationary front lay E-W to
the south of the region. The lower troposphere is virtually
saturated from the surface through the mid levels with occasional
ripples of upper level energy tapping into the moisture producing
overrunning precipitation. At the time of this writing the first
wave of precipitation is just now moving into the far western
sections of our CWA. With such limited observation sites in that
area, hard to know what surface temperatures are but one thing for
sure they are near freezing. HRRR and RAP both show temperatures
warming a degree or two in the next couple of hours but haven`t seen
any evidence of that in the surface data yet. These areas are at the
very eastern edge of a very shallow arctic airmass that seems to be
holding fast.

Latest temperatures (08Z) still hovering around 32 degrees so issued
a Freezing Rain Advisory generally west of a line from Greenville to
Marble Hill and Perryville Missouri to Carbondale and Mount Vernon
Illinois. Most accumulations should occur on elevated or untreated
surfaces. See the advisory for additional details.

Precipitation chances should remain high today but starting tonight
the boundary will begin to move slowly north in response to a
developing system over the plains thus lowering chances a bit. In
addition the axis of a weak H5 ridge will build northwestward from
the southeast US into the central plains. This will tend to deflect
the better precipitation chances to our north and west tonight into
Sunday.

Precipitation chances in the short term period will be lowest Sunday
night as the aforementioned front lifts north of our CWA putting us
in the warm sector. Precipitation chances begin to increase Monday
into Monday night with the approach of a cold front associated with
the plains system lifting northeast toward the Great lakes region.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 244 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

The long term period begins with average forecast confidence as
still differing models appear to be coming into somewhat better
agreement through mid week. Forecast confidence decreases to below
average as model variability continues to elevate uncertainty in the
late week period.

Starting with Tuesday, a weak cold front extending from low pressure
over the Great Lakes region is forecast to pass through the forecast
area. This should shift the best chance of showers and perhaps a few
lingering thunderstorms into southwest Indiana and western Kentucky
during the day. By Tuesday evening, the associated upper level low
should move east as well, bringing at least a temporary lull in the
extended period of wet weather. The GFS continues to be slightly
faster with the passage of this low, but it is not dissimilar enough
from the ECMWF and GEM at this point to make a huge difference.

Dry and unseasonably mild conditions are expected Wednesday through
at least much of Thursday as drier air aloft works in behind the
passage of the low. Highs on Wednesday are forecast in the lower to
mid 50s, then upper 50s to lower 60s by Thursday.

By late week, energy from an upper low over the Baja peninsula and
Gulf of California is progged to pivot northeast into the southern
Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. How and when this occurs is a
point of contention with the models at this point. The end result is
at least a chance of showers as early as Thursday night continuing
into Friday. More certain is the forecast of unseasonable warmth
courtesy of south to southwesterly flow through the greater depth of
the atmosphere. In fact, highs on Friday are forecast in the 60s
across much of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1147 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Ceilings across the region will remain LIFR throughout the 06Z TAF
period as a disturbance aloft approaches the region overnight. Vsbys
are expected to continue to deteriorate overnight as fog (and
drizzle) becomes more likely, and LIFR vsbys in fog may occur at
some terminals. The aforementioned disturbance will result in an
area of rainfall around daybreak, which will move west to east,
probably keeping vsbys at least IFR for much of the day. Surface
winds, while light, should back somewhat Sat morning for at least a
few hours.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ILZ085>094.

     Freezing Rain Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ILZ075-
     080-084.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MOZ087-
     110>112-114.

     Freezing Rain Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MOZ076-
     086-100.

IN...None.
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for KYZ001>017-
     021-022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...DB



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