Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 211810

National Weather Service Paducah KY
1210 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

Issued at 1210 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

Updated the aviation discussion for the 18Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 217 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

Above average confidence in the short term period due to decent
model agreement.

At the time of this writing precipitation just now moving into the
northwestern and western sections of our CWA will continue to spread
eastward across the area with the approach and passage of a fast
moving cold front. Precipitation should be exiting the eastern
sections of our CWA somewhere between mid to late afternoon in the
wake of the front. Due to lack of instability don`t expect any
thunder, only rain showers. Temperatures will fall throughout the
day, and that coupled with gusty winds and the rain will make for an
unpleasant day, especially for anyone planning outdoor activities.

Beyond today, high pressure at the surface and rising heights aloft
will keep the region dry with below normal temperatures through the
short term period. In fact, this area of high pressure will usher in
the coldest air of the season thus far. All areas should get a hard
freeze tonight and Sunday night with overnight lows expected to
bottom out in the lower to mid 20s. Lows Monday night will still
remain below freezing with most areas dropping to around 30.  Highs
in the period will generally range from the mid to upper 40s today,
low to mid 40s Sunday, and upper 40s to mid 50s on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 217 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

Higher than average confidence starts off the long term with good
agreement among model solutions. Timing differences lower confidence
somewhat by late week, but not enough to throw much doubt on the
outlook for a wet holiday weekend.

An upper level low coming onshore over the Pacific Northwest late
Monday is forecast to dig into the Rockies by mid week. The low will
eventually phase with the main upper level trough over Canada by
late week. Successive perturbations ejecting east from the low will
bring more clouds and eventually rain to the area by mid to late

Dry weather is forecast to persist over much of the region through
Wednesday. The only exception would be if a stray shower made it far
enough east to impact the Ozark foothills of southeast Missouri, but
chances of that appear low at this point.

Rain chances begin to increase from west to east Wednesday night and
particularly Thanksgiving Day, but this is where model timing begins
to diverge. Both the GEM and GFS indicate rain across the entire
region by dusk Thanksgiving Day, while the ECMWF keeps dry weather
in place until Thursday night. Overall, the ECMWF continues to be
about 12 hours faster than the GFS through the extended. Until the
two come together, will keep the forecast close to the consensus
blend. This brings a chance of rain into much of southeast Missouri
and southern Illinois Thanksgiving afternoon, spreading east into
southwest Indiana and western Kentucky Thanksgiving night.

The likelihood for rain showers continues into Friday before showing
some sign of coming to an end on Saturday. Showalter indices are
largely positive through the event, but show some sign of very
marginal instability by Friday. However, with a moist adiabatic
temperature profile, will keep the mention of thunder out of the
forecast at this time.

Temperatures are forecast to moderate to above seasonal norms
through Thanksgiving Day and Friday, with sharply colder conditions
anticipated by next weekend.


Issued at 1210 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

A band of light to moderate rain will continue its rapid ewd
movement across the PAH forecast area early this afternoon, as
colder drier air invades the region. Mostly MVFR vsbys will be seen
with the pcpn. Winds will turn to the nw shortly this afternoon if
not already there, gusting above 25 kts during the daylight hours
before diminishing in the evening and overnight. MVFR cigs, with
some breaks, will prevail throughout the afternoon MVFR "wraparound"
cigs are expected well into the overnight hours mainly east of the
Wabash River and the KY Lakes region.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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