Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 241751
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1251 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

H7 Temps AOA 11C may effectively cap updrafts today, but may
linger a slgt chance depending on how the pm progresses thru press
time. Will monitor.

Tonight, the cap looks to hold, and save for a potential heat of
day early evening mention being a possible holdover (see
aforementioned), will lay off overnight convection, despite
inheriting northwest fringe pop...as new NAM keeps any such
activity just outside bounds of CWA.

Tmrw-Tue look to be more convectively active, and perhaps even
Tuesday as much/moreso than Monday now, if the NAM plays out.
However the GFS is still equally active both days. High PWs and
CAPEs should be enough for at least robust scattering of
convection, with likelys possible if the upper High circulation both
models feature does not center overhead. This could back some pops
off Monday moreso than Tuesday, if it plays out to be true.

Heat Index may exceed 100 again both days, but with generally more
active convection and associated debri clouds, will hold off on
2nd period extensions of short fused Advisory...with no
collaborative stomach for that either. MEG has already dropped
theirs today, but we`ll let ours die naturally, as HI is already
in triple digits and AOA 105 in several locations.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Forecast confidence is high for the overall synoptic pattern
through the extended, but as usual the day to day details of
sensible weather will be tough to pin down.

The upper-level ridge will remain anchored over the Great Basin
throughout the extended portion of the forecast. As a result there
will be more troughing over the mid and upper Mississippi Valley and
Great Lakes. A series of relatively minor disturbances will stream
eastward over the region as the larger-scale trough develops. These
disturbances will likely support areas of convection generally
moving eastward across the region through the period. There is some
evidence especially in the 00Z GFS that a cold front may eventually
bring an end to this wet pattern next Saturday or Saturday night as
the primary upper-level trough moves eastward across the region.

The forecast will have a steady stream of chance PoPs through the
period, but higher PoPs will eventually become necessary. At this
time it is too difficult to try to pinpoint individual disturbances
and rounds of thunderstorms in time and space.

The primary concerns with thunderstorms next week will be locally
heavy rainfall and lightning. Some flooding issues may eventually
develop in areas that experience heavy rainfall from multiple areas
of thunderstorms through the week. A few severe storms cannot be
completely ruled out Thursday into Friday, as the flow aloft
increases a bit. If the GFS solution is correct, there may be a bit
better chance of severe weather on Saturday with the main upper
trough and the associated cold front.

Temperatures will start out just a bit above normal and end up near
normal levels, which will feel nice after the heat and humidity of
the last week or so.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Scattered MVFR bases may temporarily CIG/BKN but will be
transitioning to Scattered low VFR for duration of late afternon
and early evening. Isolated convective chances appear too low to
warrant mention. Overnight patchy fog again a possible, offering
possible MVFR vsby restrictions. Tmrw should see convective
chances grow during the day, with scattered MVFR bases to start
out and potential CIGS by late morning or early afternon from
upper end MVFR to low end VFR.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-
     086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     KYZ001>009.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KYZ010>022.

&&

$$


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