Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 211155
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
555 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 554 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Updated Aviation Discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 247 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Southerly flow early this morning has generally resulted in both
temps and dewpoints rising since the late evening hours. Temps have
exceeded 50 degrees in several locations, helping to erode what
still remains of our snowpack.

Patches of drizzle or light rain are expected to develop into the
morning hours, gradually transitioning to more of a showery nature
this afternoon. However, PoPs will remain rather low, in the slight
to low chance range until late this evening. May be some patchy
fog that develops this morning for a time, but confidence low at
this point.

A potent shortwave trough currently over the Four Corners region
will translate eastward today. By this evening, a 500mb low will
be located over western Kansas, and will deepen as it pivots
eastward into the Great Lakes region by Monday night. Shear
parameters continue to be quite high with this system, as a 90 kt
jet develops at 500mb, with 60+ kts at 850mb tonight. Concern
continues to be the degree of surface based instability that can
work into our CWA. Short term guidance does hint at some surface
instability off to our west that weakens as it pushes east into
our southeast Missouri counties. Also, dewpoints look to rise into
the mid 50s in portions of southeast Missouri ahead of the line
of convection. Otherwise some marginal elevated instability tries
to translate eastward across the region into Monday morning,
although it may be a real struggle to get it into our eastern
counties. Decided to go ahead and include a slight thunder mention
into the morning hrs.

The Hi-Res models are in agreement on a line of convection
developing off to our west this evening, which will be knocking on
our western doorstep around midnight, or slightly after. This line
will quickly sweep eastward through the area overnight into Monday
morning. Figure if any storm were to become strong to severe it will
be over our far western counties in Missouri (Ozark Foothills). This
matches up with the SPC Day 1 convective outlook which places our
four western counties in a marginal risk. Strong wind gusts would be
the main threat.

QPF amounts will generally be highest in southeast Missouri and
lowest in our eastern counties. 0.3" to 0.7" on average, but there
could very well be some localized higher totals around 1" or a bit
more.

Dry slot should quickly sweep from west to east Monday morning into
the early afternoon. However, several of the OOz models depict a
secondary line of convection that develops as the upper low pushes
by to our north. This would most likely be mainly north of our
area. Otherwise there may be some wrap around precipitation
across our far northern counties Monday evening into early Tuesday
morning, but this also looks to stay mainly north of our CWA.
Continues to look quite breezy on Monday into Monday night with
wind gusts up around 30 to 35 mph across much of the area.

High temperatures today and tomorrow look to range from the mid 50s
to low 60s, before dropping back into the 40s on Tuesday. Tonight
looks quite balmy with lows holding around 50, before dropping back
into the 30s tomorrow night and 20s on Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 247 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Wednesday through early Friday continue to look dry with a
warming trend, with models showing high pressure sliding to our
south Wednesday and Thursday and sitting over the central East
coast by Friday. Winds will shift to the south by 12z Thursday. We
will have near to slightly above seasonal normal temperatures
Wednesday into Wednesday night, then the south winds will bring us
up to 6 to 12 degrees above normal for Thursday and Friday.

After mostly clear nights and mostly sunny days Wednesday into
Thursday night, clouds will begin to increase ahead of our next
weather system. ECMWF and GFS are in close agreement taking a low
pressure system from eastern South Dakota/eastern Nebraska at 18z
Friday to the northwest Great Lakes region by 12z Saturday, with
the GFS just a bit farther west then the ECMWF. This brings the
associated cold front into western portions of the PAH forecast
area by 18z Saturday. Models show showers spreading into western
portions of the PAH fa Friday evening, spreading east across the
rest of our region by early Saturday morning. Models indicate a
good chance of showers through the day Saturday across the entire
region. Temperatures will remain very mild Saturday with the front
making fairly slow progress across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 554 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

A noticeable lowering of cigs has been noted within last couple
hrs across northwest half of region. Expecting this to continue
and lead to IFR cigs for this area through much of the day. Low MVFR
cigs will be found further to the southeast. Some potential at
MVFR vsbys as well, especially at KCGI and within other areas that
have the lower stratus deck. Patches of drizzle or light rain
expected through the day. A surge of drier low level air is
expected late this afternoon and evening from the southeast. This
should lead to cigs improving into VFR category, first at
KPAH/KOWB and last at KCGI. As pressure gradient tightens up,
winds will pick up and become gusty towards end of period. Before
this happens, some LLWS concerns exist again at KEVV/KOWB this
evening as winds just off the deck increase again. Line of SHRA
with possibility of some thunder expected to move from west to
east from 06z tonight through 18z on Monday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...SP



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