Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 292335
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
635 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Last week, we were under the influence of High pressure at both
the surface, and aloft. Now, for the remainder of this week and
into the weekend, we will be under the influence of Low pressure
aloft, and at the surface. The Low(s) will be spinning just to our
east, across the Commonwealth and southern Indiana, thru Friday.
After that, they`ll gradually lift to the north, head back toward
the Great Lakes just prior to their permanent departure. This
means a continuation of high chance to likely pops in our east,
tapering to lower chances in our west. It will include a
convective element of instability (thunder) in the near term,
mainly tmrw, for eastern ptns of the CWA, where the highest pops
will exist as well.

Otherwise, clouds and coolish temps will continue, with Highs in
the 60s-low 70s, and lows in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

The Low lifts out by Sunday and height recovery commences
thereafter, as High pressure ridging to our west starts to work
in/overtop the PAH FA. This will occur daily as the ridge
translates west to east across the area, and as a result, temps
warm slightly each day. Sunday, Highs will be in the 70s region-
wide. Some 80s will begin to pop up in the southwest Monday, and
by Wednesday, all should see 80s for Highs. Lows will stay in the
50s, but work their way upward thru them, and approach 60 by Wed
night.

The models still show some pcpn working back into the forecast by
Day 7/night and beyond. We`ll try working within the collab pic
framework and adjust the pop accordingly.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Closed lows continue to alway generate a challenge for
ceiling/visibility/precipitation timing and placement in
TAF`s...this is no exception.

Utilized the NAM-WRF guidance to depict the best time period for
categorical precipitation, as well as climatological favored low
ceilings and visiblities with this closed low. Most ceilings will
waver between VFR and MVFR, while visibilities will be prominently
VFR, with short excursions into MVFR & LIFR categories near 12z
+/- 2 hours.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Smith



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