Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 231919

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
219 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Issued at 219 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

It has been another hot and humid day across the Missouri Ozarks
and southeast Kansas. Some mixing of drier air has allowed
temperatures to shoot into the upper 90s here on the plateau over
the past hour. Heat index values were ranging from 101 to 108 as
of 2 pm. A few pulse showers/thunderstorms have developed across
south central MO so far this afternoon, but we are not expecting
much more than that today. Our main short term focus will be with
heat and humidity through Sunday. More convective precipitation
will be possible throughout the week as the upper level pattern
undergoes some transition.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

For tonight, pulse showers/thunderstorms should rapidly come to an
end this evening with the diminishing of instability. Main
convective activity will be centered on the upper MS valley into
the western Great Lakes in the vicinity of an upper level jet
streak and surface front. Temperatures will again remain rather
warm overnight with lows only in the mid 70s. Our record highest
low temperatures on record range from the mid 70s in the eastern
Ozarks to low 80s in SGF/JLN so we could approch those records

A strong upper level shortwave will traverse eastward from the
upper midwest and upper MS valley on Sunday which will send a cold
front south into northern MO. The upper pattern will begin to
flatten out with main ridge axis retrograding to the west which
will begin to allow some shortwave energy into the area from the
west-northwest. Main area of convective potential on Sunday will
again be over the southeast CWA. With the front remaining to our
north, it will be another hot and humid day across the area with
the heat warning continuing into Sunday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

More cloud cover and precipitation coverage through the upcoming
week will keep temperatures slightly cooler than what we have had
this week, enough to keep out of heat products at this time.
Thunderstorm coverage will increase as west-northwest flow
develops aloft and more bits of upper level energy move through.
Outflow boundaries from nighttime thunderstorm complexes could
make it into the area and be a focus for additional
afternoon/nighttime convection across our area, in addition to
continued pulse type afternoon thunderstorm coverage.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected with
continued high pressure aloft. Some broken cumulus VFR ceilings
may be possible at times over the next few hours.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ055>058-

KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ073-097-101.



SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.