Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 181808
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
108 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

It was a quiet night over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. There were a few storms over northern Arkansas,
along with a storm cluster in central Kansas that produced some
severe wind gusts.

Heading into today`s period, max temperatures will increase by a
few degrees, putting many locations in the lower 90s by mid
afternoon.

There doesn`t appear to be any triggers for convection through
today, therefore we`ll keep the forecast dry through 7 pm.

Rain chances will definitely start to increase into tonight`s
overnight hours, as a speed max located over South Dakota forces a
complex of storms to fire somewhere around Topeka Kansas or St.
Joe Missouri. Storm motion vectors along with 0-3 km shear
vectors, would suggest propagation to the southeast, and directly
into the Missouri Ozarks.

The NAM shows storms moving into west central Missouri by
midnight, and spreading southeast into the rest of the area
between midnight and 6 am.

The Ozarks environment could be sufficiently unstable for a few
severe thunderstorms, and deep layer shear is expected to range
from 15 to 25 knots. Damaging wind gusts and hail up to the size
of quarters would be possible with the stronger updrafts given
this environment. We will include a mention of severe
thunderstorms into this morning`s Hazardous Weather Outlook.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

A few residual showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday
morning, prior to completely dissipating by early afternoon. At
this point, a major warming trend will begin, which highlights the
extended forecast.

A strong summertime high will expand across the Ozarks Region late
in the week, and could persist for 3 - 5 days.

The 00z runs from the GFS and ECMWF are suggesting a stronger high
center, along with an extended period of time that it could
persist over the area.

Model guidance has been too cool the last few days, but has been
gradually increasing in values. Therefore we continued to bump
guidance numbers up about 4 degrees for the Thursday, Friday, and
Saturday periods. We currently have temps running from 96 to 100
degrees those three afternoons. Max heat indices will range from
100 - 105 degrees. This late week air mass will include the hottest
temperatures so far this summer.

It`s quite possible this heat could extend into Sunday or even
early in the following week given the latest trends from the GFS
and ECMWF slower to break down the high.

No precipitation is forecasted beyond Tuesday morning as the
summertime high should suppress any updraft attempts.

Have a great work week !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. Weak sfc
high pressure over the area today will shift east with a south and
then sw sfc wind becoming established as a warm front lifts
through the area. An area of thunderstorms is expected to develop
along and north of the front, but high res models weaken the
storms by the time they make it as far south as the taf sites.
Will continue with a prob30 group for KSGF late in the taf period,
but better chances for storms are expected to the north and
northeast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA






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