Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 042304
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
604 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A few showers have developed over extreme south central MO this
afternoon in an area of instability near the mid level shortwave.
Not much else across the CWA with fairly flat cumulus field
elsewhere with drier and less unstable air mass there. Fair
weather appears to be short-lived however with another unsettled
and potential setup for more heavy rain and flooding next week.
The forecast focus will be centered on this potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

May see some residual pop-up showers over south central Missouri
through early evening, but otherwise looks like a dry night for
fireworks viewing across the CWA.

May see a little bit of convection over the southwest CWA very
light tonight into Sunday with a shortwave dropping southeast out
of the Plains, but most areas are expected to remain dry through
Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

By Sunday night, a strong upper level wave will begin pushing
through the northern into central Plains with a frontal boundary
moving into the upper Mississippi valley into the southern Plains
from northeast to southwest. This front will slowly progress
southeastward on Monday with showers and thunderstorms starting to
push into the northwest CWA and eventually spreading across the
remainder of the area on Monday night. Both the GFS/ECMWF bring in
heavy rain to the area, but the ECMWF continues to paint a bad
picture with continued chances of thunderstorms and heavy rain
through much of the week as the front continues to meander through
the area as a series of shortwaves move through the westerly flow
aloft. PW values are forecast by the GFS to be in the 1.75 to 2.0
in. range throughout the week. With the recent significant
flooding from this week, would anticipate that we would need
another flash flood watch at some point upcoming.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 559 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

Pilots can expect VFR conditions to be the rule at area terminals
tonight through Sunday. Some patchy fog and MVFR visibilties may
develop overnight especially at the Branson terminal. Otherwise
surface winds will become more southerly Sunday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster





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