Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 270954
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
354 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 302 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Low clouds have hung on over all but the far western cwfa so far
tonight. We have started to see some erosion of the western
edge, and based on 925/850mb humidity progs, the clearing line
will continue to shift east as low level winds begin to back to
the west and southwest and warm advection (albeit weak initially)
kicks in in the lower levels. The clouds may, however, hang on for
a bit over the eastern cwfa today.

Sfc high pressure will keep winds light today. A s-se sfc wind
will eventually start to kick in as the high exits off to the east
tonight. Temperatures might drop quickly this evening then level
off with the increasing sfc wind.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Gusty s-sw winds will kick in Friday with a sharp warming trend.
Progged soundings show a shallow moist layer underneath a capping
inversion/elevated mixed layer Friday night and into the weekend.
We might see some shallow advection stratus/fog develop late Fri
night into early Saturday. Given the shallow depth, it look like
the moisture will mix out, even with low seasonal sun angles, but
this bears watching since it may affect daytime temperatures.

For Friday-Saturday, went with a general consensus of guidance on
temperatures with most if not all areas reaching the 60s over the
weekend.

A split mid level flow pattern will gradually develop over the
western and central CONUS with a northern stream shortwave
supporting a cold frontal passage with some light rain late Sunday
night with cooler/colder temperatures Monday-Tuesday. Quite a
difference between the ECMWF and GFS by Tuesday/Wednesday with
just basic placement of large scale features. In general, both
models don`t show any real cold air surging south, but they vary
on the timing and degree of warm air advection by mid/late week.
Again, the forecast represents a blend which in affect warms
temperatures a bit by day 6 and 7 (Tuesday/Wednesday) but with low
confidence.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: The southwest edge of a large area of
mvfr ceilings is affecting the taf sites and based on trends will
keep mvfr ceilings at all sites early in the taf period through
15z. Northwest winds will diminish over the next few hours as a
ridge of high pressure moves east into the area.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...DSA





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