Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 251729
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1229 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

...Update for aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 224 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Today should be a near carbon copy of yesterday, with highs again
topping out a degree or two on either side of 100 degrees.  Will
also carry a slight chance for thunderstorms across the far eastern
Ozarks, where just enough mid level moisture will be able to bleed
over from the Mississippi/Ohio River Valleys.

The biggest forecast challenge for today will be dewpoints,
especially along the Ozark Plateau.  There`s no doubt that we`ll see
deep mixing again today, but just how low dewpoints will drop is a
tough call.  Examination of water vapor imagery suggests slightly
higher mid level moisture building in from the west, and based on
that and some extrapolation using the 00Z TOP sounding, low 60s
seems most reasonable at this point for areas along the Plateau.  As
has been the case for the last few days, dewpoints will be higher in
areas of lower terrain, more or less on the "edges" of the SGF
forecast area.

With dewpoints dropping into the low to mid 60s, heat indices
shouldn`t be too much higher than the actual temperature during the
afternoon hours.  Nonetheless, this still results in heat index
readings between 100 and 107 in most locations, and the Heat
Advisory continues unchanged.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Heading into Tuesday, temperatures look to be just a degree or two
cooler compared to today, though in the grand scheme of things, it
really won`t seem appreciably different given a corresponding uptick
in dewpoints be a couple of degrees.  It does look like we`ll have a
slight chance for an afternoon thunderstorm or two across the area,
though dry conditions will continue for most areas.

By Wednesday, the upper level ridge will begin to slowly move east,
with slightly cooler temperatures aloft expected across the area.
Surface temperatures will also be a few degrees cooler, though still
5-8 degrees above average.  A few storms will be possible again
Wednesday, and should largely be diurnally driven.

Extended guidance continues to slowly bring a weak trough into the
area Thursday into next weekend.  Rain chances will slowly increase
during the latter portion of the workweek into the weekend, with the
best rain chances over the weekend as a weak cold front sweeps
across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

VFR conditions to continue at all TAF sites.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 312 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

The following is a list of record high temperatures and the last
year of occurrence through early next week:

August 24th...

SGF...100/1938
JLN...102/1947
VIH....97/1978
UNO...100/1983

August 25th...

SGF...100/1983
JLN...101/2003
VIH...101/1973
UNO...100/1983

August 26th...

SGF...100/1938
JLN...101/2003
VIH...100/2003
UNO...103/1983

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Runnels
CLIMATE...Boxell





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