Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 031159

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
659 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0253 AM CDT SAT OCT 03 2015

Little change in the short term is expected with slightly below
normal temperatures once again to be witnessed across the region
as cyclonic flow around the SE US upper low maintains the
northeasterly low level flow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 0253 AM CDT SAT OCT 03 2015

Weak ridge to remain in place across the forecast area into
midweek as SE US low advects into the Atlantic while west coast
upper low digs. By midweek the 00z GFS is suggesting a scenario
closer to the previous runs of the ECM in which the west coast
system maintains its closed low as opposed to filling and being
kicked into the Central Plains. There is also a new player...a
short wave currently rotating through the NE Pacific low that is
progged to reach the Central Plains Thursday as the northern
stream strengthens. Interestingly while the appearance suggests
the potential for a phased stream system, the remnants of the
western upper low migrates south rather than advecting east as a
progressive system. In any case, the warming trend initiates
Monday and low POPs have been maintained for Thursday into Friday
...though perhaps for different reasons.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 0653 AM CDT SAT OCT 03 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected for much
of the taf period with a sfc ridge of high pressure remaining in
place. Some signals exist in the guidance for some lower clouds
to shift westward into the area late in the taf period and have a
mention of mvfr ceilings at KBBG and KSGF after 09z.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...DSA is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.