Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 272008
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
308 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

...HEAT ADVISORY WILL NOT BE EXTENDED...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)

Scattered thunderstorms will persist through the afternoon and
early evening hours. With mixed layer capes running about 2000 -
2500 j/kg, a few severe wind gusts are likely with the stronger
updrafts. This evening`s rain chances should completely end by 930
or 10pm.

We barely touched 100 on our heat index here in Springfield this
afternoon, however, cloud cover, along with the gradual break
down of the summertime high, allowed for slightly cooler
temperatures today.

With the summertime high breaking down further tomorrow, we have
decided to not extend the Heat Advisory at this time. The midnight
shift can take another look at it tonight, just in case one is
needed. The ongoing heat wave is finally about over.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)

As a much anticipated storm system approaches from the west on
Friday, so shall the rainfall. Perhaps Friday into Saturday could
be the best signal we`ve seen for more than a month for widespread
rainfall.

These showers and thunderstorms could pose concerns for boaters,
campers, floaters, and anyone that plans to participate in outdoor
activities throughout the holiday weekend.

We`re not talking about a complete washout through the weekend,
however, hit and miss thunderstorms will need to be monitored, and
it`s associated impacts revolving around cloud to ground
lightning. Weak wind shear and low confidence in instability
levels kept us from mentioning a severe weather risk at this time.
This could certainly change with future model analysis.

Cloud cover and precipitation will bring temperatures back into
the 70s and 80s on an afternoon basis Friday through Sunday.
Overnight lows will fall into the upper 60s to around 70.

Additional thunderstorms can not be ruled on Monday (Labor day).
The region will be underneath the main belt of westerlies,
meanwhile, a surface front could exist somewhere near the Ozarks
region, providing a trigger for additional convection.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Satellite imagery trends show a
blossoming cumulus field behind an outflow boundary along and north
of Hwy 54 and over southern MO along and south of I-44. Modified
12z KSGF sounding supports continued development of slow moving,
high based pulse convection, similar to yesterday. Strong winds
and hail will occur with or in the vicinity of stronger storms.
Thunderstorm coverage should gradually decrease after 28/0000z-7
pm CDT.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA






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