Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 220638

1238 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

Issued at 940 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

We have made a few tweaks to the overnight and early Saturday
morning forecast. First off, patchy fog was inserted across south-
central Missouri as the setup has become favorable for advection
fog north of a warm front which was located near I-40. We may also
see some terrain effects come into play in the form of upslope and
stratus build-down. Thus, we have generally kept the fog mention
along and south of the Ozark Plateau spine.

We have also trimmed back PoPs overnight over most areas. While we
will continue to see patchy drizzle, shower activity will be
isolated to widely scattered in nature over most areas. The one
exception may be later tonight from southeastern Kansas into west-
central Missouri where slightly better lift and instability will
exist. We have kept PoPs around 40% in this area.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Cloudy, cool conditions have been observed across the region thus
far today. As expected, rain and drizzle has been spotty, with one
batch exiting into central, MO and another entering southern and
south central MO. Temperatures do range quite a bit across the
area with near 60 degrees at Joplin and around 40 at West Plains.
Temperatures will oscillate a bit this evening, with steady/slowly
rising temperatures expected once again tonight as continued,
strong low level warm air advection continues.

As has been discussed over the past few days, we continue to
battle pockets of lift and an overall dry atmosphere. Moisture
return has been mainly confined to the low level jet level, good
enough to produce widespread stratus, but not so good at producing
widespread rain to this point. The story remains the same tonight
into Saturday as the main upper level system will be just a bit
slower to enter the region than previously anticipated. As a
result, the best chances for widespread, soaking rains will be
Saturday night and Sunday. Models continue to spit out low values
of most unstable CAPE, so will continue the slight chance mention
for thunder tonight through Sunday. Overall, expected rainfall
amounts are about the same, one to one and a half inches, with the
highest amounts over the eastern half of the area. Can`t
completely rule out a few wet snowflakes Sunday night as the
system exits, but not expecting any impacts.

Temperature wise, mild readings will persist through the weekend, a
very welcome change from the past 10 or so days. The cold front
will move into the region later Sunday into Sunday night, however,
ending our brief stretch of mild (normal) November temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A deep trough will develop over the central U.S. early next week
with below average temperatures returning to the area. Scattered
showers will end over the eastern Ozarks early Monday morning.
Monday will be a breezy and colder day. Clouds will try to clear
from southwest to northeast but the Lake of the Ozarks region will
likely hold on to the clouds all day.

Another shortwave will move across the region on Wednesday which
will bring clouds with the system but overall it will be moisture
starved. A cold will move through on Wednesday and bring another
reinforcing shot of cold air for Thursday into Friday. It will be
rather quiet with the weather for travelers on Wednesday. And right
now Thanksgiving looks to be cold and mostly sunny.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Low level moisture will remain abundant across the region through
Saturday evening as a warm front remains in the vicinity of
southern Missouri. Flight categories into early Saturday morning
will generally be in the IFR category, but some brief improvement
to MVFR can be expected at times. Weather models then continue to
struggle with consistency regarding flight categories from later
Saturday morning into Saturday evening. Some models keep southern
Missouri in IFR while others lift ceilings into MVFR and even VFR.
We have chosen to go middle of the road for now and gradually lift
ceilings into the MVFR category sometime later Saturday morning or
Saturday afternoon. We are confident that scattered rain showers
will develop across the area on Saturday. Meanwhile, surface
winds will remain brisk out of the southeast to south and will be
gusty again on Saturday. Low level wind shear will continue into
early Saturday morning.




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