Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 172038 AAA

338 PM CDT Sun May 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

After early morning severe storms, a much calmer day has been
observed across the region today. Airmass recovery has been slowed
considerably by ample mid/high level cloud cover, which is just now
starting to exit from west to east. Mesoanalysis shows marginal deep
layer shear (30-35kt) and surface based CAPE on the order of
500-1000 J/kg. However, when looking at mixed layer CAPE, values
drop considerably, into the low hundreds. With an overall lack of
focusing mechanisms and weak thermo in place, it will be rather
tough to get more than just scattered shower and storm development
over the next few hours. Severe weather is not expected with
anything that can develop.

Heading into tonight, models continue to hint at some shower and
thunderstorm potential across south central Missouri. The NAM is an
overly aggressive outlier. This is likely due, in part, to not
handling the current low level environment all that well (dewpoints
across the area are not in the 70s). As a result, that solution has
been discarded. At this time, the best PoPs have been placed across
south central Missouri, but if trends continue, PoP values will need
to be lowered area wide for the rest of this afternoon through

A cold front will move into the area from the north first thing
Monday morning. The airmass change will lag a bit, as a result
another day of near or above average high temperatures is expected.
The potential for scattered showers and storms remains for areas
along/southeast of the I-44 corridor through the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

A cooler airmass will enter the region Monday night, setting the
stage for what will likely be a period of at or below average
temperatures for the remainder of the workweek.

Quiet weather conditions Monday night and Tuesday will be short
lived as another disturbance moves through the area Tuesday night
and Wednesday bringing a very good chance of rain and embedded
thunder to the region. Severe weather is not expected with this

Well below average temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday
with highs in most areas in the 60s. Temperatures will begin to
moderate Friday, returning to at/above average next weekend as the
upper pattern returns to an unsettled state and opens up low level
southerly flow.

Rain chances will increase next weekend as yet another closed upper
low moves from the central Rockies into the Plains. Will need to
keep an eye on the potential for robust convection given this
pattern coinciding with the holiday weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

Primary forecast challenge is south-southwest winds gusts this
afternoon. Partial sunshine has led to decent mixing, with wind
gusts approaching 25-30kt at times at SGF and JLN. This will
continue through the afternoon, lessening considerably this
evening. Attention then turns to rain chances later this afternoon
into tonight. There is much uncertainty as to just how much
activity can be mustered given a recovering airmass and weak
forcing aloft. Scattered showers and storms will be possible
southeast of the I-44 corridor, and have included a mention at
SGF/BBG. There is an additional, low, chance for showers and
storms later tonight. However, confidence is too low to include at
this time. A cold front will enter from the north late tonight and
tomorrow, and winds will shift to the northwest. Will need to
watch for scattered shower and thunderstorm development once again
Monday afternoon.




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