Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 152026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
326 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Summer-like weather was beginning its return to the Ozarks this
afternoon as an upper level ridge was building into the region. At
the surface, brisk and gusty southerly winds were occurring as low
level pressure gradients had tightened up. Late afternoon
temperatures ranged from the middle 70s over the eastern Ozarks to
around 80 degrees over western Missouri and southeastern Kansas.

As we head into tonight, weak short wave energy will track east
across the northern and central Plains. As this occurs, a low
level jet stream will strengthen and nose into the Upper
Mississippi Valley. A few short term models break out some
convection in northern and central Missouri from this evening into
the overnight period. Inspection of forecast soundings does
indicate fairly weak inhibition for parcels lifted from around 850
mb. However, the main focus for isentropic upglide will be well
north of the area. Thus, we have gone with only slight chances for
thunderstorms tonight across central Missouri in case there are
some more localized areas of enhanced isentropic upglide on the
eastern periphery of the jet.

Otherwise, a mild and breezy night is on tap with low temperatures
ranging from the lower 60s across the far eastern Ozarks to the
upper 60s along the I-49 corridor. The breezy and warm conditions
will then continue into Sunday with any risk for thunderstorms
shifting into northeastern Missouri by morning. Temperatures will
be even warmer as 850 mb temperatures warm into the 16-20 Celsius
range. High temperatures will therefore range from the lower 80s
across the eastern Ozarks to the middle and even upper 80s along
the I-49 corridor. A few record highs will be in jeopardy (see
the Climate section below).

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Temperatures will continue to climb as we get into Monday as
850 mb temperatures warm a few more degrees. Highs in the upper
80s look probable over most areas with the 90 degree mark in
jeopardy along the I-49 corridor. Once again, record high
temperatures may be broken on Monday.

Models then continue to depict a cold front approaching the area
during the day on Tuesday as short wave energy moves across the
northern Plains. While questions remain regarding the timing and
placement of this front, it does look like at least slightly
cooler temperatures are in order. The prospects for showers and
thunderstorms initially look fairly low on Tuesday as the better
upper level support remains north of the Ozarks.

A much stronger short wave trough will then begin to dig across
the central Rockies and then central Plains from later Wednesday
into Wednesday night. This type of synoptic scale setup will favor
that front sharpening up and eventually beginning to drop south
through the area. This will lead to better chances for showers and
thunderstorms once we get into Tuesday night and especially

The question then becomes how progressive that trough will be as
we get into later next work week. Looking at the long wave charts,
upper level energy should tend to dig across our region before
eventually beginning to pivot as it crosses into the Tennessee
Valley. Thus, the faster ECMWF is preferred at this point over the
GFS and Canadian models. Even with the faster solution, lingering
showers will remain possible into Thursday or possibly Friday.
Much cooler temperatures will return as that front clears the


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

VFR conditions should generally prevail this afternoon across the
region, though a brief dip back to MVFR is possible. Winds will
remain quite gusty from the south until the sun begins to set;
expect to see a steady south breeze continue overnight. Winds will
then again pick up by mid morning on Sunday.


Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

A much warmer air mass will spread over the area to end the
weekend to start early next week. Below are the record highs and
years for Sunday October 16th and Monday October 17th.

October 16th:

City            Record High     Year

Springfield     85              1950
Joplin          88              1995
Vichy/Rolla     87              1950
West Plains     88              1950

October 17th:

City            Record High     Year

Springfield     89              1964
Joplin          88              1964
Vichy/Rolla     89              1950
West Plains     88              1953




SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Boxell is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.