Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 220517

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1117 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

...Update to Aviation for 06Z TAFs...

Issued at 0216 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

After a brief period of light snow this morning which was around a
trace in most locations, clouds have quickly cleared from
northwest to southeast this afternoon with only cloud cover
remaining over south central MO. Despite the continued cold air
advection, temperatures have rebounded slightly in areas which
have received some sunshine into the lower 40s. Winds will
continue to diminish as we head through the afternoon.

Main focus will be on the temperatures in the short term and with
the precipitation over Thanksgiving into the extended holiday


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 0216 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

Will be pretty chilly tonight across the area as surface ridge
traverses the forecast area. Currently have lows dipping into the
teens to low 20s. Another shortwave will push through the area on
Sunday, but with little to no moisture to work with, it will move
through dry. Low level warm advection will begin on Sunday and
should see temperatures back into the mid to upper 40s despite the
cold start to the day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 0216 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

Northwest flow early in the week will become more westerly in the
wake of the trough that pushes through on Sunday. Another storm
system will drop southeast into the western U.S. by the middle of
the week and we will see a broad area of southwest flow aloft
develop across the Plains and into the Mississippi valley. In the
lower levels, there should be decent warm air/moist air advection
into the region, sufficient for showers and isolated thunderstorms
to begin developing as early as Wednesday night, but more likely
Thursday into Friday. Last couple of model runs have really sped
up the progression of this trough and clearing out of this
precipitation to the southeast by Friday night now. While we
haven`t completely eliminated pops on Friday night yet, we have
diminished them from previous forecasts. Temperatures would
eventually be cold enough for a transition to light snow if
precipitation does hang around Friday night, so have gone with a
chance of rain/snow during that period for now.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFs: VFR conditions will prevail
across the TAF sites tonight and Sunday. High pressure will be
over the area tonight with light winds and clear skies occurring.
As the area of high pressure starts to spread off to the east
south to southwesterly winds will develop Sunday morning and
continue through the rest of the day.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
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