Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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816
FXUS63 KSGF 182348
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
548 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 215 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Temperatures were slightly cooler today than we had yesterday,
especially where we have had mostly cloud cover. Still, readings
were well above normal for this time of year with normals from the
mid 40s to low 50s. The upper level low which brought some light
showers, mainly to the eastern Ozarks overnight and early this
morning has shifted to the east of the area, but some cloud cover
remains in place. Upper level ridging should begin to build into
the area from the west later today and tonight.

The main forecast focus will be with near record to record
temperatures on Sunday (see climate section below) and then with
showers/thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 215 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Upper ridge will begin to push east into the area tonight along
with some weak low level warm advection, which should increase on
Sunday. Once again, mild temperatures are expected tonight with
low from the mid 40s to around 50. Highs on Sunday will approach
or eclipse record readings.  (see climate section below).

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

The upper ridge axis will be short lived over the area and should
slide to the east on Sunday night allowing for a stronger
southwesterly flow aloft to develop with approaching trough.
Better low level moisture transport and warm air advection will
take place so that likely showers with scattered thunderstorms
will be possible in the western CWA by the 06-12z Mon time frame.
The better instability and lift with the shortwave will be on
Monday across the whole CWA. Most of the shortwave trough should
push through the area by 12z Tue, with only low pops remaining in
the far eastern CWA Tue morning.

More above normal temperatures will be in place for much of the
remainder of the week, but a stronger storm system will begin to
push into the area on Thursday night into Friday and will bring
the next round of showers and thunderstorms to the region.

Cooler temperatures are then expected for Friday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 541 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Expect VFR conditions and relatively light surface winds through
the evening hours as upper level ridge axis moves across the
region. As low level winds become more southerly and dewpoints
increase from the south, we may see some light fog and MVFR stratus
to build in by around 12Z, give or take an hour.

Pressure gradient tightens up after sunrise with deepening lee
side low, which should help mix the ceiling back up to VFR by
afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 215 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Record Highs/YearFeb 18thFeb 19th    Feb 20th
Springfield 74/194871/2004     77/2016
Joplin78/198675/2011     78/2016
West Plains         77/1986     73/1981     76/2016
Vichy-Rolla         72/1991     70/2004     75/2016

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Terry
CLIMATE...Lindenberg



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