Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 142235
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
535 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Rather raw day underway across the Midwest. Temperatures have gone
nowhere, bouncing around in the 30s for most locations (low to mid
40s southeast of the Plateau). Bands of light snow flurries and
drizzle continue across the area, but should make an orderly exit
by early this evening.

Biggest weather story by far is the freeze expected for tonight.
Not much to change forecast wise. Well advertised freeze is on
track,. Skies will clear by mid/late evening and the combination
of cold/dry air advection will result in several hours below the
freezing mark and lows in the hard freeze range for most if not
all locations.

Sun returns tomorrow, but it will remain chilly as forecast
925/850mb temperatures remain well below the seasonal norm.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Another round of frost is expected Tuesday night. Temperature
forecast is not as straightforward as tonight. Southerly winds
will develop across the area, particularly after midnight, and
there will be cirrus clouds to contend with. Lows will definitely
flirt with the freezing mark again, and frost is expected before
winds pick up. Lows will likely be around midnight, steadying off
and slowly rising toward daybreak.

Warming trends begins Wednesday and seasonably early Spring
temperatures are expected for the rest of the forecast. Fast flow
aloft will send a couple of disturbances our way. The first is
pretty well agreed upon by the 12z suite of model output and
should arrive late Thursday, with the best rain chances Thursday
night. This system will exit during the day Friday. A decent
chance of (welcome) rain is expected with this system, though
instability will be lacking and thunder is questionable.

Another system is possible over the weekend. Models continue to
exhibit inconsistencies from run to run, so timing rain chances is
tough at this juncture. There are signals for a rainy Sunday, so
this is something to keep in mind. Once again, rain chances look
decent, but instability is lacking. Something to watch in the
coming days as new guidance should be able to better hone in on
periods where rain will be more probable.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 533 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Clearing is starting to take place from west to east and should
see that happen at the 3 TAF locations in the first few hours of
the TAFS. Winds should diminish shortly after the onset of the TAF
and become light and variable overnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Tuesday FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Tuesday FOR
     KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Lindenberg





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