Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 221756
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1156 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1151 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
Loss of satellite data has messed up interpreting the exact cloud
trends, but return of imagery indicates that clouds have thinned
over most of the FA over the last few hours. Cloudiest area should
be over south central MO, but the remainder of the area receiving
at least filtered sunshine. However, we do expect another wave of
mid and high clouds to thicken back up over southern sections of
the FA heading into the evening.
Update for afternoon trends will be out shortly.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
An extended spell of relatively mild and quiet weather can be
expected through this weekend into early next week.
The storm system to our south will track across the gulf coast
states Friday. The associated precipitation shield will nudge
farther north across Arkansas as the primary shortwave trough
swings eastward. A few drops of rain cannot be ruled out near the
Arkansas border to the south and southeast of West Plains.
Otherwise the only impact will be the mid to high level cloud
A northwesterly flow aloft will become established heading into
the weekend as an upper level ridge builds over the western U.S.
and an upper level trough deepens along the east coast.
The core of cold air will remain east of our region with no
intrusion of Arctic air anticipated through the middle of next
The result will for the Ozarks and Osage Plains will be dry and
seasonably cool temperatures with readings be near to slightly
above normal for later January. Temperatures could rise well above
normal next week as the upper level ridge expands eastward.
Forecast Confidence: Given model consistency in projected trends the
confidence in this forecast is high.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015
Model guidance and current trends indicate that the SW MO area
will stay VFR though the period. Stratus to the northeast and
south of the area are forcast too stay in their respective areas,
as the primary storm system moves well south of the arae. Light
northeast winds will give way to a more westerly flow on Friday.