Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 221223
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
723 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015
Shortwave depicted well on water vapor leading to the development
of thunderstorms over the TX panhandle . This wave to advect into
the Central Plains today however 00z SGF/OUN and LZK soundings
show a significant dry layer that will need to be overcome before
precipitation is realized at the surface. Have reduced POPs over
the region this morning with a gradual increase in the west this
afternoon as the column saturates.
While yet another MCS to impact the Southern Plains tonight, the upper
ridge to sharpen on Saturday which will again keep best rain
chances skirting the western CWA.
Perhaps the greatest impact will be the resultant cloud cover
which will keep the region unseasonably cool.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 405 AM
CDT THU MAY 21 2015
00Z models continue to depict good continuity enhancing confidence
for at least moderate rainfall over the Memorial Day weekend.
Meriodonal flow to slowly push east into the SGF CWA during the
weekend with precipital water reflecting the increasing low level
flow to reach 1.5 - 1.75 inches by Sunday which is 1-2 standard
deviations higher than normal this time of year.
Considered the issuance of a 5th period Flash Flood Watch though
current QPF falls short of FFG and best shortwave energy to arrive
during the day Sunday so while low level jet will be higher than
normal lift will not be fully realized. Partners over southeast
Kansas and western Mo should monitor this situation over the
holiday weekend for updates.
Upper flow to transition to a zonal flow through midweek with
periodic shortwaves generating thunderstorm chances.
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 719 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015
High pressure will remain in control of the areas weather through
the afternoon allowing for VFR flight conditions to continue. An
approaching storm system will bring slowly increasing clouds and
rain chances to the region this evening and into the overnight
hours. The system will need to work its way through dry air in
place. As a result, no impacts to aviation is expected though
showers from 5kft ceilings will be possible overnight.