952
FXUS63 KSGF 180505
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1205 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances (20-50%) for scattered showers and a few
  thunderstorms this afternoon into the early evening. No severe
  weather or flooding expected.

- Above normal temperatures this weekend into early next week
  with near record temperatures Monday and Tuesday.

- Return of active weather and severe thunderstorm potential early
  to mid next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

A glance at visible satellite imagery reveals a cumulus field
gradually becoming more agitated early this afternoon. The
expectation remains for this to evolve into weakly forced
scattered convection across the area this afternoon. Hi- res
guidance indicates anywhere from 1000-1600 J/kg of instability
available to tap into, so lightning will be possible. Given the
low shear environment, this activity will be pulse- like in
nature, with any one storm likely to be short-lived. Lightning
and brief moderate to heavy rain are the primary hazards.
Chances for convection wind down this evening with the loss of
diurnal heating.

Areas of fog may develop late tonight into early tomorrow
morning as clearing skies and light winds will support
radiative cooling. These factors combined with residual low-
level moisture support fog development, particularly across
low-lying and sheltered environments. The 12Z HREF probabilities
of visibilities less than 1 mile are highest south of I-44
where they range from 40-80%.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Warm Temperatures:
Temperatures will be on the rise Saturday into early next week
as mid-level ridging moves into the area. NBM (4.2) data show
fairly small 25th-75th percentile spreads of 3-4 degrees,
indicating high confidence in the temperature forecast. Global
models depict anomalously warm 850 mb temperatures ranging from
16-20 degrees Celsius Sunday through Tuesday, which is close to
the 90th percentile of climatology. This warm air will support
high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s during this time, with
some areas possibly touching 90. These temperatures would come
within a few degrees of daily records (see Climate section
below).

Temperatures look to cool down Wednesday though the end of the
week with the passage of a cold front. Forecast highs range from
the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Severe Thunderstorm Chances:
Most areas remain dry through the weekend, though a passing
shortwave will introduce some shower and thunderstorm chances
late Sunday night into Monday, mainly across eastern Kansas and
central Missouri. These storms are expected to weaken as they
shift east out of Kansas and Nebraska, and severe weather is not
anticipated at this time.

We are, however, continuing to monitor the severe thunderstorm
potential Tuesday and Wednesday. Ensemble guidance depicts an
upper- level trough with multiple shortwave impulses over the
western CONUS Monday that will shift east early next week. At
the surface, a deepening low pressure system over the Plains is
progged to track northeast into the Great Lakes region, dragging
a cold front along with it. Strong and deep southwesterly flow
will provide significant moisture advection over the region
along with deep-layer shear. While many details still remain
unclear and need to be ironed out in future forecasts, the
atmosphere may be supportive of organized convection capable of
producing severe weather. As of now, the most likely timing
appears to be Tuesday afternoon and evening. The Storm
Prediction Center has our entire area outlined in a Slight (15%)
risk for severe storms.

Notably, ensembles have trended a bit slower/later with their
timing. A slower solution may also open the door to additional
severe thunderstorm potential Wednesday, though this threat is
highly conditional and low confidence at this point. CIPS
analogs and CSU machine learning probabilities also highlight
severe weather potential during this period. Stay tuned for
further updates in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Areas of fog may develop through the early morning, reducing
visibilities to as low as 2 to 4 mile at KBBG. Visibility
reductions around 6 miles at KSGF and KJLN, though confidence is
lower on the extent of the fog this far north. Any areas of fog
dissipate around an hour after sunrise. Winds light and
variable through the morning, becoming predominately
southwesterly around 5 knots in the afternoon with minimal
cloud cover.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Record High Temperatures:

May 20:
KSGF: 90/1964
KJLN: 92/1956
KUNO: 89/1964

May 21:
KSGF: 91/1987
KJLN: 91/1987


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 20:
KSGF: 71/1902

May 21:
KSGF: 70/1902

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Perez
CLIMATE...Burchfield