Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 041740 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1240 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...


.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 0325 AM CDT TUE AUG 04 2015

SEVERAL AREAS OF CONVECTION OCCURRING THIS MORNING. THE FIRST OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THE SECOND
AREA OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA. SHORT TERM MODELS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING
NORTHERN MISSOURI ACTIVITY GENERALLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING, ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM MAKING IT INTO THE
FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND HAVE INCLUDED LOW PROBABILITIES TO
COVER THIS. OTHERWISE, ATTENTION TURNS TO PROGRESSION OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA ACTIVITY LATER TODAY. NAM/GFS KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST UNTIL AFTER 00Z TONIGHT, HOWEVER ECMWF
WANTS TO BRING IT INTO THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NONE THE
LESS HIGHER PROBABILITIES WARRANTED ACROSS THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

BY TONIGHT LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A SHORTWAVE
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. GIVEN WEAK STEERING
FLOW COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 0325 AM CDT TUE AUG 04 2015

MAIN THRUST OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES NOSING INTO THE OZARKS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. IF MCV FORMS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THIS
COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE COULD MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL FLOW FOR
ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PER SPC DAY
2 OUTLOOK MUCH OF AREA IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE WIND AND HAIL, HOWEVER MODELS SO SHOW THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW WHICH COULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. CONVECTION LIKELY
TO EVOLVE INTO A MCS AND THEN PUSH EAST. AGAIN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION TEMPERTAURES LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST IN THE 80S FOR
HIGHS.

MODELS LINGER PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS INTO
THURSDAY THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES EXIST FOR CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
THE EASTERN OZARKS. AFTER A REPRIEVE FROM TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S
ON WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN CLIMB BE AROUND THE 90 MARK
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS WITH MIDDLE 80S
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI ON THURSDAY.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE OZARKS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S AND CENTRAL MISSOURI IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO AROUND 90
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, ANY SHORT WAVES THAT MOVE OVER
THE RIDGE AND THROUGH THE REGION MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BUT NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE AUG 04 2015

AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ADDED VICNITY SHOWERS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE THEN POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
INTO THE AREA. HARD TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS JUNCTURE
THEREFORE WENT WITH PROB30. A BRIEF BREAK IS POSSIBLE TOMMORROW
MORNING BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA.
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH BE VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, HOWEVER ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE A DROP TO MVFR-IFR. WINDS OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RABERDING
LONG TERM...HATCH/RABERDING
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD


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