Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 282333
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
633 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 227 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

This weekend will not be a wash out by any means...but we will
see isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorm
possible tonight through Sunday.

A weak frontal boundary is currently northwest of the area. A weak
upper mid level trough is currently moving south-southeastward
across the Midwest. This energy will shear off and a shear axis
will basically be overhead in the area or near by through the
weekend. This means there will be a potential for unorganized
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. The instability is not
terribly high and the Bulk shear values are also not that great.
The main hazards for tonight through Sunday will be a few
lightning strikes and brief heavy downpours. No severe weather is
anticipated at this time.

The greatest potential for scattered convection will be late
tonight across portions of southeast Kansas into southwestern
Missouri after midnight through sunrise tomorrow. This area will
gradually and slowly move east during the day on Saturday with the
greatest potential for scattered convection over the eastern half
of the Missouri Ozarks Saturday into Saturday night. Precipitation
chances will diminish to 20 percent or isolated by Sunday over
the eastern half of the area.

Added cloud cover will keep temperatures in check near or just
slightly below average with highs in the middle to upper 80s this
weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

12z model output is in decent agreement with the overall upper
level pattern next week. A broad ridge of high pressure will
spread across the Midwest. This will result in temperatures
returning to above average, and southerly winds will promote a
modest increase in humidity. Model consensus indicated 850mb
temperatures in the upper teens to around 20C nearly each day.
This correlates to high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s
and have positioned high temperatures around the 90 degree mark
all week.

Will need to keep an eye out for the location of a weak shear
axis aloft. This will be related to the disturbance that shears
out over the region this weekend. If this feature stays together
and sits overhead, this will result in a few diurnally driven
showers and storms. This will be no means be a washout scenario,
but something to keep in mind each afternoon/early evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 0623 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

An approaching cold front will bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms into southern Missouri late tonight and early
Saturday. Confidence is high enough in timing and coverage of this
activity to warrant a TEMPO group at all three southwest Missouri
TAF sites. MVFR conditions can be expected with any thunderstorms
with a brief stint of IFR also possible.

A low level jet stream will also develop and shift into the region
overnight resulting in low level wind shear conditions at both
Joplin and Springfield.

Showers and thunderstorms are then expected to shift east of the
area for a time later Saturday morning, but additional development
will then be possible in the afternoon. At this time, it appears
that the best chance for redevelopment will be in the vicinity of
the Springfield and Branson aerodromes. A PROB30 group was
inserted to cover this threat.

Outside of thunderstorms, surface winds will remain out of the
south to southeast below 12 knots.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann


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