Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 181732
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1232 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

...Update for 18Z TAFs...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Weak, diffuse cold front now over Arkansas will wash out today
with southerly low level flow re-establishing itself over the
forecast area. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough will track northeast
across the area. Scattered showers/storms already occurring ahead
of the wave in Kansas and Oklahoma. Short term models indicate
this activity will spread east-northeast into the area this
morning. The best rain chances look to be from southeast Kansas
into central MIssouri, with lesser amounts as you you head south.
Given clouds and rainfall potential instability looks rather
meager for any severe weather threat at this time. Highs will be
warmest along the Arkansas border with readings in the middle 80s,
tapering off to the middle 70s in central Missouri.

For tonight, low level jet re-establishes itself across Kansas, with
the jet then nosing into northeast Kansas late. Storms will be
possible again in the vicinity of the jet across mainly Kansas and
into northern Missouri. However, cannot rule out some isolated
activity further south and east of the area in broad warm
advection regime. Will keep lower end probabilities going given
flow pattern. Lows will drop into the middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Vigorous trough begins to dig across the northern Rockies on
Tuesday, while zonal to slightly southwesterly flow continues across
the local area. With ample sunshine could see some isolated
showers/storms develop, which should diminish by Tuesday night.
Pressure gradient tightens and will likely see breezy and warm
conditions, with temperatures rising back into the mid and upper
80s.

For Wednesday through Sunday, highly amplified pattern will persist
across the conus with a longwave trough across the west and strong
ridging east. The forecast area will be between these two system,
with more influence from the ridge. At this point it looks like
mainly a dry pattern for the most port, with most of the widespread
precipitation chances remaining well to our west. However we will be
on the edge of the deeper southwesterly flow so cannot rule out
precipitation chances from time time. Temperatures look to remain
above normal through the period with the warmest days looking to be
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

VFR conditions will continue this afternoon with just occasional
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two across the region.
Flight impacts should be minimal unless thunder moves directly
overhead.

Most of the precipitation should lift out this evening, with some
fog potential across the eastern Ozarks after midnight. Some of
this may make it into the Branson terminal, but SGF and JLN should
remain far enough west to remain VFR. Winds will become southerly
overnight, with some gustiness developing by late morning on
Tuesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Boxell



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