Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 270853
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
253 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Light rain was increasing in coverage over eastern Oklahoma this
morning, which will shift into southeast Kansas and the Missouri
Ozarks.

We followed the Hi-Res ARW with our precipitation and POP forecast
through today and tonight. This solution suggests placing light
rain further northwest by 12Z, and translating an axis of light
rain eastward across southern Missouri with time.

We think the areal coverage of measurable rain will be high,
however, rainfall amounts will be low. Many locations will only
experience measurements less than one tenth of an inch.

Light rain should linger across south central Missouri this
evening and tonight, eventually exiting the entire region by
Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)

A cooler airmass will have spread across southern Missouri by
Sunday bringing temperatures down into the 20s to start the day.
High pressure will be shifting directly overhead causing winds
to become light and variable under sunny skies.

An extended period of dry weather is expected heading into the
upcoming work week. Fast zonal flow will occur over most of the
nation`s mid section as northerly winds persist at the surface.
This pattern will keep moisture at bay, bringing dry weather.

These northerly winds will also allow some Polar air to move into
the Ozarks. Temperatures will plummet by Tuesday and Wednesday
with highs only in the 20s and lows in the teens.

Rain chances finally increase by Thursday night and Friday as a
storm system slowly approach from the west. Thermal fields will be
border line rain or snow for precipitation type. Therefore we have
a rain or snow worded in our forecast for Thursday night and
beyond. Details regarding precipitation type late next week should
be better understood in time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

IFR conditions are expected to persist overnight along with areas
of drizzle which will reduce visibility down into the low-end MVFR
range. We do expect pockets of LIFR conditions throughout the
night. Winds will start off southerly but will shift to the
northwest late tonight with a passing cold front. Flight
conditions will slowly improve starting Saturday morning but
timing the IFR to MVFR transition is tough at this point given
high variance in the weather models. This transition will be
pinned down in future TAF issuances.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann





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