Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 020459 AAB
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1159 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

Convection currently underway across central Missouri and the
eastern Ozarks will continue to slowly move southeast with time
this afternoon and early evening. This activity has developed in
response to a weak mid level wave pushing across northern Missouri
interacting with the remains of a surface boundary. The airmass
further south and west is quite a bit drier, and it is unlikely
that activity will move any further southwest than a Warsaw to
Salem line. Locally heavy rain and frequent lightning, along with
wind gusts to 30 MPH, can be expected. Widespread severe weather
appears unlikely at this time.

Convection should dissipate with the loss of sunshine, with low
temperatures tonight dropping into the mid to upper 60s to around 70.

Another short wave will then descend into the Central Plains on Sunday.
A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible across central MO in
associated with a weak wave moving across the northern portion of
the state.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

Seasonably warm weather to continue through the coming week with
upper ridge to retrogrades to an axis from the northern Rockies
into the southern plains. The atmosphere to be initially too dry
within this northwest flow pattern to generate more than isolated
storms on Monday as a weakening frontal boundary reaches the
region...though PW and rain chances will increase on Tuesday
through the end of the work week as split flow develops on the
periphery of the flattening upper ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours and beyond.
Light/variable winds will give way to southwest winds during the
day Sunday, becoming gusty at times. Aside from a few mid/high
clouds, no ceiling/visibility restrictions are expected. There is
a slight chance for isolated/widely scattered shower/storm
development east of the TAF sites Sunday afternoon.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell/Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Gagan





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