Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 201650
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1150 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1144 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Showers had ended across far southwest Missouri by mid morning as
they pushed south into Oklahoma and Arkansas, in association with
a frontal boundary and upper level shortwave. Have removed any
mention of precipitation for the remainder of the day in the
forecast products. High pressure will begin to build into the area
with a clearing sky during the afternoon from north to south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Gathering showers were concentrated the most in southwest Missouri
out toward McDonald County, as an upper level disturbance approached.

Robust updrafts are not anticipated, therefore we decided leave
out any mention of thunder. The shower activity could continue into
your morning commute mainly south of Highway 60.  Nearly all shower
activity will dissipate by the afternoon period. Highs today will
likely warm into the 70s with mostly sunny skies. Water Vapor was
showing dry air spreading in, increasing sunshine this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

We have been monitoring a pattern conducive for mild and dry weather
in our region for the next several days, as an upper level ridge
navigates over the nations mid section through Wednesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday will be our next decent shot for showers
or maybe even some isolated thunderstorms. Both the GFS and the ECMWF
ramp up QPF amounts over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Moisture
levels will be low amongst the Ozarks air mass due to north winds
directed across the Gulf of Mexico, mitigating deep moisture return.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will be short lived Thursday, moving
east of the region by Thursday night. Yet another anomalous ridge
recharges across the desert southwest, and expands over the Ozarks
into the upcoming weekend. This pattern will bring warm weather
eastward over much of the nation`s mid section. Readings in the
seventies will be well above average for the last week of October.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

High pressure will build into the area and should be overhead
during the overnight hours. Wind should diminish to light and
variable after sunset and continue there through the overnight
hours. A clear sky will also be present and allow for quick
cooling and should drop below the crossover temperature during the
overnight hours. As a start, will diminish visibilities to 1 mile
around 09-10z at SGF/BBG overnight as we are expecting some fog to
develop. Future forecast might need to be adjusted downward if it
is looking like a dense fog situation may develop, but will start
the trend downward with this issuance. Clearing back into VFR
should then take place by around 15z Tue.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg






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