Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 162353
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
653 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Gusty winds will continue across the Ozarks into this evening.
After sunset, winds will begin to diminish as the surface
gradient weakens. Overnight temperature us will be a bit warmer
with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s expected.

The low pressure center over western Iowa and associated cold
front extending southwestward across Kansas and the OK/TX
panhandles will shift eastward into the forecast area on Thursday
with mainly post-frontal precipitation developing ahead of the
upper level trough through Thursday evening. Very dry lower
levels will take some time to saturate...so expect precipitation
amounts to remain on the lighter side...averaging around one
tenth of an inch.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Once the main upper trough shifts east of the Ozarks on Thursday
night and Friday...we will see a warming trend and dry conditions
through Saturday as a lee side trough deepens over eastern
Colorado. A surface high will keep Gulf moisture south of our area
through Saturday before shifting east and allowing a decent fetch
of low level moisture to stream northward from the Texas Gulf
Coast on Sunday. The models may be bringing in precipitation a
little fast but think overall moisture availability will be better
with this system. Model soundings show some modest instability so
will include isolated thunder potential for early Sunday through
early Monday.

Another round of upper level ridging commences on Tuesday and
Wednesday with upper level flow becoming more southwesterly by the
end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs, south winds will diminish with the loss of
sfc heating/mixing along with some weakening of the pressure
gradient over the next hour or two. A cold front will approach and
slowly move through the region toward the 15z-21z time frame late
in the taf period. Dry conditions in the lower levels should
prevent anything other than lowering vfr ceilings, especially
after the frontal passage.

&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>069-077>080-088>090-093-094-101.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TERRY
LONG TERM...TERRY
AVIATION...DSA
FIRE WEATHER...Hatch






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