Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 280426

1126 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Like last night and early today, another area of forcing will
develop along a nw-se oriented baroclinic zone ahead of subtle
shortwave moving southeast across the region. A band of precip
will move into the area late tonight toward 09z and then exit
toward midday/18z Saturday. Progged soundings support snow over
the eastern cwfa transitioning to rain or rain/snow over the west.
Expecting a healthier coating of snow over central/south central
MO compared to early this morning where sfc temperatures will be
somewhat colder. All-in-all still expecting some areas could see
between 0.5-1.0"of wet snow.

Precip will end by early afternoon with chilly temperatures,
although the far western cwfa could see some low 60s with less
clouds and being under less of an influence of the departing cold
air mass.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

The highly amplified upper level pattern over the CONUS will
transition to a more w-e zonal flow with milder temperatures. A
shortwave will push a sfc trough/"front" through the region Sunday
with modest chances for showers. Warm weather will continue as an
upper level ridge moves into the central U.S.. Guidance by the
mid/late week period indicates a frontal passage ahead of a
somewhat positively tilted upper level trough moving into the
Plains. Run-to-run consistency of guidance hasn`t been great. In
general, a more highly amplified upper level pattern is indicated
toward the end of the week with a slower sfc frontal approach.
The 12z GFS and GEM are faster with the fropa versus the ECMWF and
a middle of the road approach is reflected in the fcst with rain
shower/tstm chances increasing Wednesday into Thursday and early


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Another upper level shortwave and speed max will dive south-
southeast tonight and bring additional chances of light snow/rain
to the area towards morning into Saturday. Most of the light qpf
will likely be over areas east of the terminals and will not be
mentioning any precipitation in the TAFs for the 06z taf period.
Have gone with VFR conditions through the period, and will likely
see winds shift to the east-southeast during the day Saturday and
increase speeds.




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