Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 170413

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1113 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Summer has returned to the Missouri Ozarks as an upper level ridge
of high pressure continues to build over the region. Late
afternoon temperatures are generally in the middle to upper 80s
with Springfield already breaking its record high temperature for
the day. Meanwhile, brisk and gusty southerly winds continue as
pressure gradients remain tight in the lower atmosphere.

As we saw last night, temperatures will remain very mild due to
persistent southerly winds and dew points in the middle to upper
60s. It is almost a sure bet that all four of our ASOS sites will
break record high minimum temperatures for the 16th of October.
Overnight lows will range from the middle 60s over the far eastern
Ozarks to the upper 60s and lower 70s elsewhere.

Record high temperatures will again be in jeopardy on Monday as an
even warmer air mass advects into the region. Temperatures at
850 mb will be a degree or two warmer than what we saw today.
Thus, we have tacked on a degree or two to expected afternoon high
temperatures. High temperatures will range from the middle 80s
over the eastern Ozarks to around 90 degrees across western
Missouri and southeastern Kansas.

Another story for Monday will be brisk and gusty south to
southwest winds. Pressure gradients will be even tighter than what
we have seen over the last few days. Sustained winds of 20-25 mph
with gusts around 40 mph appear quite likely along and northwest
of the Ozark Plateau. There may be a few locations that are not
all that far from Wind Advisory criteria.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

A cold front will then drop south into northern and then central
Missouri on Tuesday as short wave energy moves through the Great
Lakes. We will see cooler temperatures even ahead of the front as
the warmest 850 mb temperatures shift off to our southeast.
Nevertheless, highs will still warm into the upper 70s and lower
80s. This is still well above normal for the middle of October.

Chances for precipitation initially look low along this front due
to a lack of upper level support and what will likely be a strong
capping inversion. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will then
begin to increase with the approach of digging short wave energy
from later Tuesday night into Wednesday and Wednesday night.

We will have to watch for the potential of strong to severe storms
Wednesday given what will be fairly strong deep layer shear across
the region. The amount of instability and whether or not storms
can form ahead of the front in the warm sector remain big
questions. At this point, this synoptic regime may tend to favor
storms developing behind the surface front due to a later arrival
of that upper level energy.

Both the GFS and Canadian models have then continued to trend
towards the faster ECMWF when it comes to progressing that upper
level trough through the region. Thus, the heavier precipitation
is expected to push out of the region by Thursday morning as that
frontal zone pushes well south of the Ozarks. A few light showers
will still remain possible into Thursday as that upper level wave
tracks over the region. Much cooler temperatures can also be
expected to end the work week with temperatures returning to near


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Breezy southerly winds will continue through the overnight hours
along with low level wind shear. These will be the primary flight
impacts through the forecast period. Ceilings and visibilities
will remain VFR.


Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

A much warmer air mass will spread over the area to end the
weekend to start early next week. Below are the record highs
and also record warm lows for Today (October 16th) through
Tuesday, October 18th.

Record Highs:

October 16th:

City            Record High     Year

Springfield     85              1950
Joplin          88              1995
Vichy/Rolla     87              1950
West Plains     88              1950

October 17th:

City            Record High     Year

Springfield     89              1964
Joplin          88              1964
Vichy/Rolla     89              1950
West Plains     88              1953

October 18th:

City            Record High     Year

Springfield     87              2005
Joplin          90              2005
Vichy/Rolla     86              1953
West Plains     89              1953

Record Warm Lows:

October 16th:

City         Record Warm Low   Year

Springfield     66              1897
Joplin          65              1980
Vichy/Rolla     65              1968
West Plains     61              1981

October 17th:

City          Record Warm Low  Year

Springfield     63              1971
Joplin          65              1994
Vichy/Rolla     63              1998
West Plains     65              1998

October 18th:

City          Record Warm Low   Year

Springfield     65              1971
Joplin          64              1985
Vichy/Rolla     63              1971




SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Hatch is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.