Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 250509
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1109 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Morning)
Issued at 1213 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

High pressure sitting over Texas today was allowing temperatures to
be a bit warmer than the past few days. Southerly winds were
helping also bring a bit more moisture into the area as well. This
will continue overnight into Wednesday morning as the weak surface
high moves east across the Gulf coast as a surface low moves
southeast across the northern plains.

There is a slight chance that portions of the Ozarks may see sum
light fog early Wednesday morning as the warm air moves over whats
left of the snow cover. The most likely areas will occur where
winds become light and variable.

Temperatures Wednesday will again climb into the middle 30 across
the eastern Ozarks to the middle 40s west of I-49/Highway 71.

The advertised clipper system is continuing to show a slower
movement as was the case with the previous model runs. The main
area of lift still looks to be across central Missouri which will
be where the best chance for accumulating snow to occur.
Accumulations should be around an inch with the best chances again
in central Missouri with the possible southern extent reaching as
far south as the Highway 60 corridor as the system shifts east
into Thursday afternoon with as few flurries hanging around until
sunset.

Another cold air mass will move over the region behind The clipper
system and bring another shot of cold air to the area for Thursday
into Friday with afternoon temperatures staying in the 20s and
overnight lows Friday night falling into the middle single digits
above zero to around 10 degrees with wind chills Friday morning in
the 0 to -9 degree range.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1213 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

GFS/ECM depicting similar mean solution of a digging southwest
upper low that will set up a quasi stationary front over the
weekend. Confidence in where the front will set up is relatively
low but its impact on sensible winter weather will be potentially
high. Of note is the positioning of the next surface high over the
northern high plains along with the positively orientated upper
trough which approximates a favorable pattern for freezing
precipitation. Way too far out to be too specific but model QPF
tied to this pattern makes the forecast one to closely monitor.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1104 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Conditions are clear and 10 sm visibility throughout the CWA as of
05z and generally expecting this to continue through the
overnight. Only fly in ointment will be the potential for some
light fog once the wind diminishes during the overnight, but have
removed from the forecast at this time. Should start to see some
mid level ceilings develop by Wed evening as an upper level
shortwave begins to track southeast into the region.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Lindenberg





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