Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 201135

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
635 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

...12z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

An upper level ridge of high pressure will remain centered over
the region resulting in another day of hot temperatures. While
some locations may add a degree or so to high temperatures
(compared to Tuesday), we are looking at very similar temperatures
and dew points. With that being said, areas of the far eastern
Ozarks and south-central Missouri (especially Shannon and Oregon
Counties) have already seen a couple of days of heat indices
around 105 degrees. After collaboration with our neighbors to the
east, we decided to upgrade the far eastern Ozarks to an Excessive
Heat Warning.

It does appear that mid-level moisture profiles will be supportive
of isolated to perhaps widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
from late this morning into this afternoon. This will especially
be true along and east of a Lake of the Ozarks to Table Rock Lake

Any convection should then quickly come to an end early this
evening with another warm and humid night on tap. Lows across
portions of far western Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas
may struggle to fall out of the upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Even warmer temperatures are then expected for the Thursday
through Saturday time frame as models warm 850 mb temperatures a
few degrees. Most areas should see high temperatures in the middle
to upper 90s during this period. While dew points may decrease
ever so slightly, heat indices are actually expected to be
slightly warmer than what we have seen early this week. We are
looking at afternoon heat indices in the 100-110 range through
Saturday with the highest readings across west-central Missouri.
We have therefore extended the heat headlines into early Saturday

We could see a few isolated storms again on Thursday...mainly
across the eastern Ozarks. However, most areas are expected to
remain dry. Chances for thunderstorms then dwindle as we head into
early this weekend as mid-level moisture becomes less supportive
of convection.

Global models have then come into better agreement on the
potential for a cold front pushing south into the region from late
this weekend into early next week. This may bring at least a
little bit of relief from the heat by next Monday if these current
model trends hold. This front would also bring a chance for
showers and thunderstorms to the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

VFR will remain across the Missouri Ozarks through today and
tonight. Light southerly winds will continue. There are no
aviation concerns through the next 24 hours.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ077-079>082-088>097-

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-

KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ097-101.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ073.



SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Griffin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.