Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 230447
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1147 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)

It was a tremendous day over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Warm temperatures, low humidity, and northerly
breezes were ideal conditions for outdoor activities.

Warm and sunny weather will continue into the weekend, as
temperatures approach 80 both Saturday and Sunday.

Sunday will be a little breezy with south winds at 10 to 20 mph.
Some gusts up to 30 mph can not be ruled out for areas along and
west of Interstate 49.

For Sunday night, a few storms will be possible over the Osage
Plains, as a short wave trough clips this area. The more frequent
storms will be north over Kansas City and Topeka`s regions.
Otherwise, the weekend looks dry for nearly all locations across
the Ozarks.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

Severe weather chances will increase at the beginning of the work
week, and persist through at least Wednesday morning. A pattern
quite favorable for organized storms will occur from the Central
Plains into Missouri, as a negatively tilted upper trough
approaches from the west.

Plenty of Gulf moisture will combine with sufficient shear across
Kansas, Oklahoma, and portions of Missouri as this forcing
triggers convection.

We will need to monitor for any passing shortwave disturbances
Monday through Tuesday morning as both the GFS and ECMWF are
signaling warm sector initiation.

However, a signal for more widespread organized storms is shown
to occur Tuesday evening and night. We have decided to upgrade our
severe risk from a limited to an elevated for the Tuesday evening
and night period.

A cold front will swing across southern Missouri Wednesday, which
could also trigger additional convection during the day time.

A Pacific air mass will move over the Ozarks for the end of next
week, bringing slightly cooler and drier conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. A ridge
of sfc high pressure will move though the region early in the taf
period with light winds gradually veering to the southeast and
south.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA



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