Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 312312
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
612 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 0215 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A few storms have developed just south of MO near the BBG site. We
still have a weak upper level disturbance across southern Missouri
which was underneath the ridge axis. Also, afternoon instability
has increased as temperatures have risen into the upper 80s and
surface dewpoints have climbed into the upper 60s to around 70.
Surface based capes were in the 3000 to 3500 j/kg range across the
area.

Main forecast focus in the short term will be with temperatures
and widely scattered thunderstorm potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 0229 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Will maintain scattered convection through the mid evening
across the southeastern portion of the CWA until the instability
wanes after sunset. Most areas will remain dry, but can`t rule out
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms due to instability and
weak shortwave energy hanging around southern MO.

Temperatures tonight are expected to drop to around the crossover
temperature. With afternoon dewpoints in the upper 60s to around
70, we could see some patchy fog develop late tonight. Surface
wind doesn`t go completely calm, so will not go too low on
visibilities and plan on 3 miles at this point.

For Tuesday into Wednesday night, not expecting much change in the
day to day forecast. Thunderstorm chances look to be lower than
today but probably not zero yet as weak energy hangs around.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 0229 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Not many changes are expected as we progress through the week. As of
now, temperatures around average, perhaps a touch above can be
expected as UL ridge continues across the southern plains. Towards
the weekend, southerly surface flow should bring in better quality
moisture from the GOMEX.  This should begin to impact 1) POPs/Tstorm
chances and 2) a bump in heat indices.  At this point, kept
diurnally driven POPs low. As for heat indices... values look to
remain at or below 95F, at least for now.

Guidance is signaling a southward moving cold front toward the end
of the period. Long range guidance vary with placement and timing,
however, this will be a feature to follow as it will be likely the
better shot of widespread precipitation we`ll have...at least over
the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 0606 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Showers and thunderstorms in the general vicinity of Branson will
quickly diminish early this evening. VFR conditions are expected
from this evening through Tuesday across southern Missouri. There
is a low-end chance for some MVFR visibilities towards daybreak,
but confidence was too low to include this potential in the TAFs
at this time. Winds will remain out of the south to southeast
below 12 knots.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Frye
AVIATION...Schaumann


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