Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 291704
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1204 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

An upper level storm system was currently located over central
Kansas this morning and slowly moving to the east. This will bring
some much needed and widespread rainfall to the area. Radar is
showing showers and thunderstorms developing over southern Kansas
into Oklahoma. This will gradually increase in coverage later
today over our local area.

Forecast Bulk shear is only about 20 knots and lapse rates are not
expected to become particularly steep. General thunder is expected
with an isolated stronger storm possible but severe weather is not
expected. The main threat will be cloud to ground lightning today
and through the holiday weekend. Thunderstorms will likely this
afternoon through tonight and Saturday morning. Average QPF for
rainfall across the area today through Saturday will be around an
1 to 1.5 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

The eastern half of the area will have the better chance for more
showers and storms Saturday afternoon with a gradual tapering off
from west to east Saturday night. Sunday will be a less active day
with only isolated convection around and that will be mainly
confine to the eastern Ozarks and south central Missouri area. The
main upper level wave will have exit our area and Sunday looks
like the best day of the holiday weekend.

Another upper level wave will move across the Central Plains
region on Monday and bring another weak front into the area.
Thunderstorm chances will increase Monday especially across
central Missouri and areas north of I-44.

That frontal boundary appears that it will stall out Monday night
across the Ozarks and linger through at least Tuesday and maybe
Wednesday. An upper level high will setup across the Arklatex
region and the Missouri Ozarks will be on the northern periphery of
that with several weak impulses moving across the area and
interacting with that boundary. It is impossible to exactly
pinpoint the times for rainfall but will generally keep in at
least scattered pops Tuesday through Wednesday. The upper level
ridge will expand and control our weather by later next week.
Temperatures appear to be seasonable warm next week. Another one
to two inches of widespread rainfall looks very possible early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue to develop and slowly spread east across
the region this afternoon. The majority of this activity this
afternoon will occur east of the KJLN TAF site. Winds will be out
of the south to southwest at around 10kt.

The scattered convection is expected to spread east of the area
this evening with the area remaining mainly dry. Then as an upper
level disturbance spreads into the region additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop Saturday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Wise





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