Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 110533
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1133 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

For tonight, will see the winds diminish considerably this
evening, but will start to increase again as we head towards
morning with a pressure gradient increasing south of a surface
low. The surface cold front is expected to remain northwest of the
area during the day on Wednesday and then start moving into the
area on Wednesday night. Little or no precipitation is expected
in the short term period.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 238 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

The front will track through the area on Thursday before stalling
out south of the CWA. Huge differences are still showing up in the
GFS/ECMWF with how far south the surface freezing line drops to
the south which will have large implications on the precipitation
type and the amount of ice potential. Both models are holding
strong to previous forecasts with the GFS hanging the freezing
temperatures up along the Ozarks plateau while the ECMWF drives
the colder air to near the MO/AR border. As far as synoptic scale
features go, this remains a classic setup for an ice storm with
broad southwesterly flow aloft ahead of a deep trough, strong
warming temperatures above the surface, in this case model
soundings are showing +7 to +10 degrees at 850 mb and a shallow
arctic air mass at the surface. Several rounds of moderate to
heavy rainfall are expected from Friday into early next week.

We are expecting quite a bit of QPF with these rounds of rainfall
with 2 to 3 inches of QPF possible and localized higher amounts.
The main timeframe for ice potential will be Thursday night
(lighter qpf) through Saturday night with the best potential over
a larger area Friday into Friday night. Right now, we are going
with a compromise on model solutions since they are both holding
on strong to their solutions from previous runs. Highest ice
amounts will be the further north you go across the CWA with a
half to three quarters of an inch potential over parts of central
Missouri and a quarter to half inch between U.S. 60 and the I-44
corridor, with less than a quarter of an inch over far southern
MO. Due to the high contrast between model solutions at this time,
these values will likely change over the course of the next 24 to
36 hours.

Once the warmer air returns to the north over the weekend, the
main precipitation type will become rainfall, with several rounds
of moderate to heavy rain. Will be maintaining the limited
flooding risk from late in the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1113 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals for of the
overnight hours. Low level moisture will return Wednesday on
increasing southerly winds which will result in at least intervals
of MVFR ceilings. Surface wind gusts over 20 kts will be common
ahead of the next front. This cold front will push into the area
Wednesday night.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster



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