Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 212331

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
531 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

Issued at 0216 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

After a brief period of light snow this morning which was around a
trace in most locations, clouds have quickly cleared from
northwest to southeast this afternoon with only cloud cover
remaining over south central MO. Despite the continued cold air
advection, temperatures have rebounded slightly in areas which
have received some sunshine into the lower 40s. Winds will
continue to diminish as we head through the afternoon.

Main focus will be on the temperatures in the short term and with
the precipitation over Thanksgiving into the extended holiday


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 0216 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

Will be pretty chilly tonight across the area as surface ridge
traverses the forecast area. Currently have lows dipping into the
teens to low 20s. Another shortwave will push through the area on
Sunday, but with little to no moisture to work with, it will move
through dry. Low level warm advection will begin on Sunday and
should see temperatures back into the mid to upper 40s despite the
cold start to the day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 0216 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

Northwest flow early in the week will become more westerly in the
wake of the trough that pushes through on Sunday. Another storm
system will drop southeast into the western U.S. by the middle of
the week and we will see a broad area of southwest flow aloft
develop across the Plains and into the Mississippi valley. In the
lower levels, there should be decent warm air/moist air advection
into the region, sufficient for showers and isolated thunderstorms
to begin developing as early as Wednesday night, but more likely
Thursday into Friday. Last couple of model runs have really sped
up the progression of this trough and clearing out of this
precipitation to the southeast by Friday night now. While we
haven`t completely eliminated pops on Friday night yet, we have
diminished them from previous forecasts. Temperatures would
eventually be cold enough for a transition to light snow if
precipitation does hang around Friday night, so have gone with a
chance of rain/snow during that period for now.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 0507 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the period. High pressure
will settle into the region limiting clouds and reducing wind
speeds overnight. Surface winds will be light and variable through
Sunday morning. Surface winds will be southwesterly/southerly on
Sunday and should stay around 10kts or less.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Frye is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.