Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 250835
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
335 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

...Another Round of Active Weather This Afternoon and Tonight...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Our first round of severe storms in quite some time was observed
across the region Tuesday evening. Several hail reports were
received as relatively high based supercells sprinted eastward
across the region. Yet another active afternoon/evening is on tap
for the area today. Although the forecast for today/tonight is a
bit more challenging.

Effective front has shifted south of the area, with temperatures
and dewpoints falling through the 50s and into the 40s across much
of the area. Observing an increase in ground fog reports during
the past hour, especially in areas where rainfall was received
yesterday. This ground fog will be patch in nature, occasionally
dropping below 1 mile at times.

The big question for today is just how far north the boundary to
our south will travel. Blurring ones eyes when looking at the
entirety of the short term guidance, it looks like it will make it
close to the highway 60 corridor this afternoon. To the south of
the boundary, dewpoints in the 55-60 degree range are expected, to
the north of the boundary, upper 40s/low 50s will be common. As
was the case last night, a few models are a bit too aggressive
with producing low/mid 60s dewpoints south of the boundary across
southern MO. Given upstream observations, such values seem a bit
high. Regardless, steep lapse rates aloft will support mixed layer
CAPE values in the 1000-1500 J/kg range by this afternoon.

Large scale lift will gradually increase this morning, but ramp up
considerably this afternoon as surface cyclogenesis gears up over
Oklahoma and a strong, backbuilding upper level jet sets up near
the Great Lakes region. Initial convective development across
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas will likely be discreet
supercells given deep layer shear in the 40-50kt range. This
activity will lift north into extreme southeastern Kansas and
southwestern Missouri during the afternoon. Large hail will be the
main concern with this activity, however given the proximity of
the low level boundary and a decent low level jet, damaging wind
gusts and a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

The window of opportunity for discreet cells may turn out to be
fairly short. The Midwest will quickly become located in the right
entrance region of the aforementioned strong upper level jet.
Strong synoptic scale lift will result in a broad increase in
convection along/north of the low level boundary and storm mode
will come into question. Current expectations are for a shift in
storm mode to line segments, which will expand across the area
from late this afternoon into tonight. The risk of hail and wind
will continue. The risk for a few tornadoes will remain limited,
tied to mesovortex development with any line segments that can
surge/bow to the northeast.

The 00z suite of models continues to indicate a large swath of QPF
across the area, with between 1 and 3 inches of rain possible
through tonight. As a result, have expanded the flood watch
westward to the Oklahoma state line.

Widespread showers/storms will gradually shift to the southeast
with time tonight, lingering across southern Missouri into
Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Rain will gradually exit south central Missouri during the
daylight hours of Thursday morning. A mix of clouds/sun the rest
of the day along with cold air advection will result in
temperatures well below average for late March. Highs in the upper
40s/low 50s will be common, which is a good 10+ degrees below
average.

Northwest flow will set up over the region through at least the
first half of the upcoming weekend. This will leave the area prone
to the occasional frontal passage and passing chances at a few
light showers (possibly mixed with snow Thursday night and Friday
night). Temperatures will remain well below average into Saturday,
with moderation expected Sunday into early next week. 00z suite of
model guidance exhibits increased spread from Sunday onward, with
cutoff energy over the southwestern CONUS a prime reason for the
model variability. GFS is quite a bit wetter than the ECMWF,
especially just to our south. After conferring with surrounding
offices, will be downplaying rain chances for the time being until
there is better agreement amongst the models. For now, have gone
near climo PoPs and at/just above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Pilots can expect VFR conditions the remainder of tonight with more
active weather returning Wednesday. Surface winds will become
light and variable overnight.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop Wednesday afternoon
bringing areas of MVFR conditions. Flight conditions will continue
to deteriorate into Wednesday night as a cold front moves across
the region and widespread rainfall continues. Widespread MVFR to
areas if IFR conditions can be expected Wednesday evening.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH from this afternoon through Thursday morning FOR
     MOZ070-071-081>083-090>092-094>098-102>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Foster





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