Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 191718
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1218 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...18z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

The main story for today will once again be hot and humid
conditions as a summertime ridge strengthens over the region.
Temperatures and dew points should be very similar to those of
Monday. Highs will again be in the lower to middle 90s. That will
put afternoon heat indices into the 98-108 degree range. The
hottest indices will again extend from portions of extreme
southeastern Kansas into the lakes region of central Missouri.
Thus, the Excessive Heat Warning will remain intact. The going
Heat Advisory elsewhere is also in good shape.

The chance for pulse thunderstorms does not look quite as good as
previous model runs as precipitable water values will be a bit on
the low side. We could still see a few pop-up storms, but
coverage will be very limited. Perhaps the most likely scenario if
we see anything will be for storms to develop across eastern
Missouri and push a cold pool back into the eastern Ozarks
(forcing initiation). Some updrafts may also initiate along the
higher terrain across the region. Some of the convection-allowing
models (CAMs) have hinted at both of these scenarios.

The broken record will then continue for tonight with low
temperatures ranging from the lower to middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

The setup will then be similar for Wednesday regarding the heat
and humidity as well as prospects for pulse thunderstorms. Chances
for pulse thunderstorms will then decrease even further as we head
into Thursday and Friday as moisture profiles become poorer.

It does still appear that we will add a few degrees to high
temperatures in the Thursday through Saturday time frame as models
slowly warm 850 mb temperatures up towards the 25 Celsius mark.
This should result in high temperatures warming into the middle to
upper 90s. We will see a slight decrease in low level dew points,
but we are still looking at afternoon heat indices in the 100-110
degree range. It is becoming increasingly likely that the heat
headlines may need to be expanded into at least Saturday. It is
also possible that additional counties may need to be upgraded to
an Excessive Heat Warning. The best prospects for an upgrade may
be adjacent to the current warning and also across portions of far
south-central Missouri.

The 00 UTC ECMWF still holds onto some hope for cooling
temperatures with a front getting into at least northern Missouri
either late this weekend or early next week. The ECMWF does have
the backing of the GFS five wave charts and half of the GFS
ensemble members which reposition the meat of the long wave ridge
over the western United States (putting us on the western
periphery of northwesterly flow). However, the 00 UTC operational
GFS holds onto the upper level ridge with the support of the other
half of its ensemble members. With that being said, we are going
to keep temperatures at or slightly above normal for now given
that cold fronts can be hard to come by this time of year.

It does appear that we may at least have a slightly better chance
for thunderstorms from later this weekend into early next week if
that upper level ridge can relocate to our south or west. That
positioning usually offers a better moisture profile when it
comes to pulse thunderstorm climatology for the Ozarks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Generally, VFR conditions for today and tonight. A few forecast
models are suggesting fog and haze around 10z for KBBG and KSGF.
Only added in fog for KBBG due to high confidence, but left it
out for KSGF due to low confidence at this time. South and
southeasterly winds will continue around 5 knots. Mostly clear
skies for all sites today and tonight.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for MOZ058-070-071-077-
     079>083-088>098-101>106.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for MOZ055>057-
     066>069-078.

KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ097-101.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Foscato


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