Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 290512
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1212 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

...06z AVIATION UPDATE...


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed again this
afternoon in an uncapped air mass. There is also better upper
level support today with short wave energy tracking southeast
across eastern Missouri. The good news up to this point is that
the increased mid/upper level flow has resulted in at least slow
southeastward movement of storms.

These storms will persist into early this evening...especially
near and south of the I-44 corridor. Storms should then diminish
pretty quickly starting around mid-evening as that wave departs
and the atmosphere stabilizes. Confidence then remains high that a
mesoscale convective system (MCS) will develop later tonight
across the central High Plains. Once a cold pool becomes
established, wind fields will result in that MCS propagating east-
southeast towards southeastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma as
we approach sunrise. There will be a low-end threat for damaging
winds with this MCS across portions of extreme southeastern Kansas
and far western Missouri.

One other item of note for tonight will be the potential for fog
across portions of the eastern Ozarks. While cirrus from that
approaching MCS may eventually come into play, it appears that the
eastern Ozarks will see enough time with mostly clear skies to
support at least patchy fog.

The remnants of that MCS will then dissipate and continue to
track east-southeast across the region Friday morning. Additional
showers and thunderstorms may then develop in the afternoon if
enough clearing can take place. Remnant outflow boundaries may
provide a good source for initiation in the afternoon. There will
be a Marginal Risk for a few severe storms if the atmosphere can
destabilize enough. As for temperatures, we have gone with highs
in the middle to upper 80s for now. These temperatures may need to
be fine-tuned based on precipitation/cloud cover trends.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Northwesterly flow aloft will continue through the upcoming
weekend with models indicating multiple short wave troughs
progressing southeast across the region. This will keep the threat
going for nocturnal MCS activity. Additionally, scattered
thunderstorms will be possible during the heating of the day if
MCS activity can clear out in time.

An upper level ridge will then build back over the Ozarks starting
early next week. Global models keep this ridge over the region
through midweek and possibly for the entire workweek. This will
result in a return to hot and humid conditions. Thunderstorm
chances look pretty low once the ridge builds in, with perhaps an
outside shot over mainly the eastern Ozarks (depending on the
eventual location of the ridge axis).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Confidence not very high overnight as showers and thunderstorms to
the west attempt to move in but could weaken overnight. Will keep
a vicinity mention for now and watch trends. Additional chances
for showers and storms will occur during the afternoon and evening
hours Friday however timing and coverage is not certain at this
juncture and will carry a prob30 group for now. Outside of
thunderstorms conditions will be VFR with light winds.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Burchfield



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