Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 220906
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
406 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015
Shortwave depicted well on water vapor leading to the development
of thunderstorms over the TX panhandle . This wave to advect into
the Central Plains today however 00z SGF/OUN and LZK soundings
show a significant dry layer that will need to be overcome before
precipitation is realized at the surface. Have reduced POPs over
the region this morning with a gradual increase in the west this
afternoon as the column saturates.
While yet another MCS to impact the Southern Plains tonight, the upper
ridge to sharpen on Saturday which will again keep best rain
chances skirting the western CWA.
Perhaps the greatest impact will be the resultant cloud cover
which will keep the region unseasonably cool.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 405 AM
CDT THU MAY 21 2015
00Z models continue to depict good continuity enhancing confidence
for at least moderate rainfall over the Memorial Day weekend.
Meriodonal flow to slowly push east into the SGF CWA during the
weekend with precipital water reflecting the increasing low level
flow to reach 1.5 - 1.75 inches by Sunday which is 1-2 standard
deviations higher than normal this time of year.
Considered the issuance of a 5th period Flash Flood Watch though
current QPF falls short of FFG and best shortwave energy to arrive
during the day Sunday so while low level jet will be higher than
normal lift will not be fully realized. Partners over southeast
Kansas and western Mo should monitor this situation over the
holiday weekend for updates.
Upper flow to transition to a zonal flow through midweek with
periodic shortwaves generating thunderstorm chances.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015
VFR conditions will be the rule for the next 24 hours. High
pressure is in control, for now, though this will change over the
next 12-24 hours as a weakening storm system enters from the west.
Dry air in place at this time will fight incoming moisture and we
will see a gradual increase in high, then mid level cloud cover. A
few light showers will be possible at JLN during the mid to late
afternoon hours, otherwise most locations will likely see
sprinkles (if anything). Model output does indicate that ceilings
will gradually lower heading into Friday evening, though stay in
the VFR range.