Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 051800
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1200 PM CST Wed Mar 5 2014
Issued at 1031 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
Cloud cover was increased for the remainder of today into the
mostly cloudy to cloudy range as high clouds continue to thicken.
We have also raised expected high temperatures 3-8 degrees along
and north of Interstate 44...basically where there is no snow
pack. Despite the cloud cover (and somewhat limited mixing), the
KSGF morning RAOB indicates areas void of snow should at least
warm into the middle 40s. Locations across central Missouri may
push 50 degrees where mixing should be a bit deeper.
For fire weather purposes, we did lower dew points and relative
humidities over many areas for the remainder of today given the
dry sounding. Snow melt will compensate somewhat across southern
Missouri. Overall, we bumped down afternoon relative humidities
around 10-15 percent.
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
Main themes for today and tonight are slower and drier. The slower
evolution of this pattern is evident this morning as southerly
winds have held on longer across the area than previously
anticipated. As a result, temperatures are warmer than expected
with reading generally in the 20s. We should see winds weaken over
the next few hours as the weak boundary to our north finally
enters central Missouri. This will allow temperatures to fall a
few more degrees, especially where there is remaining snow pack,
though increasing cirrus coverage will prevent true radiational
The "warmer" start will help buoy milder temperatures today.
Should see cirrus continually stream into the area, however deeper
moisture will lag considerably, hugging tightly to the shortwave
currently traversing the central Rockies. With light winds and
mixing to around the 925-900mb range, temperatures should
gradually warm into the lower and middle 40s.
The core of the shortwave to our west will most likely pass to our
southwest tonight. In addition, this wave is running into a wall
of dry air. Still do think that there will be enough moisture to
produce some flurries across extreme southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri, but just not enough to support more than a
dusting of accumulation.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 253 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
Quiet and warmer conditions are on tap for the region Thursday and
Friday. Have increased temperatures a bit given increasing
southwesterly flow and mainly clear skies. In fact, we may still
be too cool for Friday with current forecast highs in the upper
50s/lower 60s. There is room to go warmer given 925/850mb temps in
the 6 to 10 C range.
00z suite of model output continues to suggest rain chances for
Friday night and Saturday. There is a slightly different look/feel
to the evolution of the upper level pattern with a strongly
positive tilt to the system, with hints of cut off across the
southern Plains. Regardless of the evolution, there is enough
moisture and forcing to keep at least chance PoPs. Given the past
few days of model runs, more tweaking is likely for Friday night
The trough axis slides south of the region by Sunday and a nice
stretch of weather is expected from Sunday into early next week.
At or above average temperatures are expected before the next
storm system looks to affect the region during the middle portion
of next week.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
An upper level disturbance will bring lowering ceilings to
southern Missouri from later this evening into the overnight
period. Confidence has increased that a period of MVFR ceilings
will impact the aerodromes from late tonight into Thursday
morning. We have therefore added prevailing MVFR to the latest TAF
issuance. Meanwhile, a weakening band of light precipitation will
push into western Missouri late tonight. We are not sure whether
or not it will reach the Joplin aerodrome, but it will be light
snow if it does. We have included a PROB30 group at Joplin to
cover this potential.