Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 191722
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1222 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Fair weather persisted over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were a little chilly this morning,
with readings in the 40s.

For today, a few high level clouds will stream overhead as a weak
upper circulation approaches from the west. No precipitation is
expected with this feature. Look for temperatures to warm into the
middle and upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

The upper pattern becomes more amplified early in the work week.
This will result in strong ridging gradually shifting over the
nation`s mid section. This is a fair weather pattern, that will
bring plenty of sunshine to the Ozarks, with temperatures warming
into the 70s on an afternoon basis through Wednesday.

The next decent chance for rain will occur Thursday. Both the GFS
and the ECMWF suggest weak troughing approaching from the west,
forcing some showers to develop. We have added anywhere from a 20
to 30 percent chance for rain on Thursday`s period. Would like to
keep values in check, since the Ozarks air mass will be fairly dry
through the week.

The dry air mass is a result of persistent northeast trajectories
across the Gulf, keeping Gulf moisture at bay the entire week.

Models all show the main belt of westerlies to remain positioned
over the northern Plains heading into next weekend. More quiet and
warm weather is likely if this regime materializes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions expected across all terminals through the forecast
period. Upper level wave currently transiting through southeast
Kansas. While radar is indicating some echoes...but surface obs
do are not indicating any rain and so think that rain is not reaching
the ground.

A surface front currently extends from southwest Minnesota through
eastern Nebraska to a surface low over northwest Kansas. This
front is forecast to be moving through the terminal area near the
end of this forecast period. However...with the lack of low level
moisture...confidence and PoPs are not high enough at this time to
include any mention in this forecast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gaede





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