Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 230446
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1046 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 130 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A ridge of sfc high pressure over the area today will shift off to
the south and east with west and southwest winds developing. Will
see a 24hr warming trend with dry conditions for the Thanksgiving
holiday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 144 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Friday-Sunday: South winds and a continued warming trend are
expected into Friday. Winds will become gusty as another
shortwave and associated (dry) cold front approach. Fire weather
will be a heightened concern as fuels continue to dry out with
recent winds and continuing drought. Pacific based high pressure
will move through the region over the weekend with mild
temperatures.

Monday-Wednesday: South winds will increase again Monday between
high pressure over the southeast U.S. and low pressure moving into
the High Plains. This will again heighten fire weather concerns
with very warm temperatures. A strong shortwave is expected to
dig into the central Rockies with a sfc front moving across the
Plains. Lots of differences w/global model guidance in the
evolution of this system as it moves into the Plains ranging from
a strong/slow closed low (ECMWF) to a weaker/faster positively
tilted trough (GFS/Canadian GDPS). GFS ensemble members vary
widely. Our fcst looks more like a general fcst guidance blend
with precip chances late Tue into Tue night. The timing of the
front is low confidence as are any precip chances. A slower
solution would yield better precip chances into Wed with more
time for moisture return from the Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1044 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Surface high pressure will be in control across the area with the
center of high pressure shifting to our southeast. This will bring
a return to a light south to southwest wind, but we should remain
VFR through the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg



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