Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 020837
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
337 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Showers and thunderstorms continue to sag southward early this
morning across from extreme southeastern Kansas and far southern
Missouri. Expect this trend to continue as the low level gradually
veers and a minor shortwave traverses to the east. The flash flood
risk will continue early this morning generally south of highway
60.

Expect most if not all of the activity to diminish by midday but
cannot rule additional development this afternoon mainly from
southeastern Kansas into far southern Missouri in closer proximity
to the residual outflow boundary.

This boundary will lift north tonight as a warm front as the low
level jet once again asserts itself. Expect scattered convection
to develop tonight on the nose of this low level jet as it
interacts with the warm front. It appears development will be
focused from southeastern Kansas into central Missouri. A few
strong storms along with locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Very warm and humid weather will return Wednesday through Friday
as the upper level ridge expands northward. Cannot rule out lingering
isolated convection Wednesday mainly from central Missouri into
the eastern Ozarks as as the warm front lifts north of the area.

A shortwave trough tracking east along the Canadian border will
push a cold front southward into the region Friday. This will
result in an increasing chance for showers an thunderstorms. The
chance of showers will persist into part of Saturday as the front
pushes to the south.

A much cooler and drier airmass will overspread the region behind
the front this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A temporary lull in shower and thunderstorm activity can be
expected for much of this afternoon with VFR prevailing. We will
continue to see brisk and gusty southerly winds this afternoon. We
are then expecting more thunderstorm development from late this
afternoon into this evening with periods of thunderstorms
overnight. MVFR and brief reductions to IFR can be expected with
these storms. The thunderstorms are then expected to end sometime
early Tuesday morning. We may see residual low clouds behind the
departing storms.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ082-083-088-
     090>096-098-101>103.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg





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