Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 230621
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1221 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 832 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

We have lowered PoPs for the remainder of this evening into the
early overnight period. We really are not seeing any sources of
sustained lift or focus to support organized shower activity.
Regional radar composite imagery confirms this with an overall
decreasing trend in rain shower activity.

Large scale lift will begin to increase late tonight as short wave
energy approaches the Arklatex region. We are therefore expecting
an uptick in shower activity late tonight with perhaps a rumble of
thunder or two.

One other final note regarding the tail end of this system. Models
(including the 00 UTC NAM) are showing an increasing signal for a
changeover to wet snow Sunday night before precipitation ends.
Given that air temperatures, ground temperatures, and road
temperatures will be above freezing, we are not expecting impacts
at this time. However, we could see some minor accumulations on
grassy surfaces...primarily along and north of the U.S. 60
corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

An upper level storm system was currently over the Big Bend of
Texas and slowly moving northeastward. This system is picking up
moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. One shield of
rain and even isolated thunder will continue to move from Oklahoma
and northern Arkansas into southern Missouri through the evening
hours.

Another shield of rain with isolated thunder will develop late
tonight into Sunday morning and spread across the area. No severe
weather expected but light to occasional moderate downpours can
be expected through Sunday. There are no changes in the forecast
through Sunday. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50s
tonight and highs in the lower 60s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night along with
another upper level disturbance. This will bring the last round of
showers Sunday night. Model soundings indicate there may be just
enough cold air aloft and the mid levels late Sunday night for
some of the showers to mix with some wet snow before ending. This
will be mainly north of I-44 and temperatures will be in the
middle to upper 30s. If this does occur...there will be no
accumulations.

Skies will slowly clear Monday and turning windy. Temperatures
will struggle to reach the middle 40s. There will be a northwest
flow for most of next week. Temperatures will be below average and
a mostly dry forecast. There will be several dry frontal passages
to reinforce the cooler and dry air mass. Travelers on Wednesday
can expected quiet weather and dry weather around this area.
Thanksgiving looks cool and sunny. Slightly colder and dry weather
continues for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Flight conditions are expected to deteriorate from late tonight
into Sunday morning as a low pressure system approaches from the
southwest. Rain showers will also develop with the potential for
isolated thunderstorms Sunday morning. We are primarily expecting
MVFR conditions as the precipitation moves in with embedded
pockets of IFR.

The rain may then end for a time Sunday afternoon but pockets of
drizzle will remain possible. That low pressure will then move
through early Sunday evening and will drag a strong cold front
through the area. We are expecting another shot of showers and
possible thunderstorms with the front. Confidence is then
increasing in a changeover to snow before precipitation ends later
Sunday night...especially at Joplin and Springfield.

As for winds, low level wind shear will continue for much of the
overnight period with brisk southeast surface winds. Brisk and
gusty west to northwest winds will then develop behind that cold
front...with gusts around 30 knots at times.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann





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