Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 072335

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
535 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

Issued at 516 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

Band of light snow continues to spread southeastward into southern
Missouri and far southeastern Kansas. Been reports of a dusting of
accumulation across central Missouri where higher radar
reflectivity returns have been noted. The "heaviest" snow and
best potential for a dusting to one half inch of snow will occur
generally north of a Joplin to Salem line. Expect a gradual
decrease in snow intensity the remainder of the evening as the
band spreads southward. There have been reports of freezing
drizzle on the backside of the precipitation across the central
Missouri. Therefore can`t rule out a relatively brief period of
freezing drizzle this evening as we lose cloud ice. Otherwise
sharply falling temperatures can be expected with the passage of
the Arctic front.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

An upper level low is currently located over the Great Lakes
region this afternoon. An upper level trough and cold front is
current pushing across the Plains. Dry air in the low levels has
kept much of the area dry this afternoon, except for east central
Kansas into west central Missouri where a band of snow was able to
develop, with lingering light snow farther to the north. This band
of snow will sag south and gradually weaken. This band of snow was able
to overcome the dry air and get snow to the surface. The snow will
likely dissipate and not see much snow in the way of snow flakes
south of I44. The snow should dissipate by mid to late evening.
Moderate to brief heavy snow will be possible within this band.
The band of snow will not stay over any given locations too long.

The heaviest snow amounts will be across eastern Kansas into
western Missouri where a dusting up to an inch of snow will occur
on mainly elevated and grassy surfaces. Farther to the south a
dusting to maybe a half inch will be possible closer to I44.

Behind the front a very cold air mass will slam into the area.
Lows will drop into the upper teens to the lower 20s tonight with
highs not warming out of the 20s on Thursday. Lows Thursday night
will drop well into the teens with single digits likely for some
of the colder sites as the cold air mass and high pressure will be
over the area. Wind chills in the single digits can be expected
during the morning and overnight hours Thursday and Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

Southerly winds will return on Saturday and will be on the breezy
side. Highs this weekend will warm into the 40s. Another system
will then track through the area later this weekend and will bring
some rain to the area, and possibly light snow on the back side.
At this time little if any accumulations are expected. There is some
uncertainty with this system as there are differences with medium
range models from run to run and from each other.

Another shot of cold air may then spread into the area during the
middle to end of next week as another system sweeps through the
region. At this time moisture will be limited and not much in the
way of precipitation is expected.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 516 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

Pilots can expect deteriorating conditions this evening as an
Arctic cold front sweeps across the region. Lower MVFR ceilings
and a period of light snow will accompany the frontal passage. A
clearing sky will occur late tonight. Gusty northwest surface
winds can be expected through the day Thursday.




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