Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 271942
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
242 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

An upper level low was currently moving into the Great Lakes
region this afternoon. Associated surface front is located from a
low over northeast Iowa across northwest Missouri...northeast
Kansas into central Oklahoma. Widely scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms have begun to develop along and behind the front as
the airmass is being lifted isentropically.

Front should approach the CWA after 00z and be all the way through
by 12z. Expect the rain area to increase in coverage through the
evening hours. Some of the stronger cells over the southwest
portion could produce some one inch hail this evening per the SPC
discussion.

Rain should diminish from northwest to southeast throughout the
day on Tuesday. Temperatures on Tuesday should be about 10-15
degrees cooler than today...but closer to seasonal normals.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

Once the upper level low makes its way through the Great Lakes
region...an upper level ridge will reestablish itself over the
Rockies. An upper level impulse moving along the ridge will bring
some cloudiness on Thursday along with a secondary surge of
Canadian air. Temperatures will be slightly below normal Friday
and Saturday. Will need to monitor the possibility for some
patchy frost over central and south central Missouri on Saturday
morning as lows dip into the mid 30s.

As the upper level ridge approaches the area this weekend...a return
to more seasonal temperatures will occur. The next upper level
system and associated cold front will approach the area Sunday into
Monday bringing the next chance of rain to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: Breezy southwesterly winds will
continue through the first half of the afternoon, then will gradually
decrease late this afternoon. A cold front will push through the
region this evening into the overnight hours. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible along and right behind the front.
MVFR conditions will be possible under any thunderstorm that
develops.

Winds will shift to the northwest behind the front and will be
gusty for a bit overnight but will relax by around sunrise
Tuesday morning. VFR conditions and northerly winds less than 10kt
are expected Tuesday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Wise






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