Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 220337
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
937 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Based on latest trends in surface observations and on satellite
images, went ahead and expanded the dense fog advisory eastward
into Oregon and Shannon Counties and westward into McDonald and
Newton counties. Also bumped up the start time to now.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

The upper level low pressure system currently spinning over the
Mid South and Mississippi River Valley Region will continue to
slowly move away from the Missouri Ozarks tonight. Scattered light
showers and drizzle will continue the rest of the afternoon from
areas along and east of Highway 65 till about sunset.

With wet ground from recent rainfall...light winds...and skies
clearing tonight, this is a text book setup for widespread dense
fog. Afternoon dewpoint depression are already running less than 2
degrees at some locations...including SGF, VIH, BBG, and TBN. We
have followed closely with the RAP13, HRRR, and NAM12 short term
guidance on location and timing of the dense fog potential. Fog
will be most likely along and east of the Highway 65 corridor and
along and south of the I-44 corridor.

Fog will burn off by mid to late morning Wednesday with the fog
hanging on longest over the eastern Ozarks. Plenty of sunshine and
a warm south-southwest wind will boost high temperatures in the
middle to upper 70s. We couldn`t rule out an 80 degrees over far
western Missouri or southeast Kansas. See climate section below
for current record highs on the books.

Gusty winds up to 20 mph and lower humidity values Wednesday
afternoon will develop locally elevated fire weather conditions
for portions of southeast Kansas into west central Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Surface low pressure will develop across the Central Plains region
on Thursday. Winds will be breezy across much of the region as the
low will track from southwest Kansas towards northwest Missouri.
Low level moisture will be lacking across much of the area
Thursday afternoon and evening. Some CAPE will develop and model
guidance show 1000 to 1500 J/KG by Thursday afternoon. There will
also be a very strong cap. With that said...will mention a very
limited chance for an isolated shower or storm to develop as this
system moves across the Midwest. The actual cold front will move
through the area on Friday and will continue a very small chance
for a shower or storm possible over the eastern Ozarks. But
overall, the ingredients don`t appear to match up for anything
more than that.

Colder but more seasonable like weather for the weekend returns. A
quick moving mid level wave will move across the Upper Midwest
Sunday morning which may bring a few sprinkles or snow flurries
across central Missouri. No impacts are expected. Southwest flow
develops in the mid and upper levels by Monday and Tuesday which
looks a little more active with the weather pattern. It appears a
better chance for rain and maybe storms return early next week
with mild temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 535 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

As mentioned in the short term discussion...dense fog potential
looks high for the Springfield and Branson airport so will be
taking visibilities and ceilings down to LIFR late tonight. Will
also bring fog in for Joplin but overall expect fog to not be as
thick or last as long.

Decent mixing and rapid warmup should erode fog by mid morning
over most of the region. Will likely be bumping up wind speeds
for Wednesday afternoon in the 06Z TAF issuance.


&&

.CLIMATE...
There will be the potential for additional record highs through
mid week with highs in the middle to upper 70s...

Record HighsFeb 22nd Feb 23rd
Springfield 76/1995 79/1982
Joplin 87/199679/1982
Vichy- Rolla76/1995 81/1982

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for MOZ057-058-
     069>071-079>083-089>098-101>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Terry
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Terry
CLIMATE...Terry



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