000
FXUS63 KSGF 142326
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
626 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

WARM...PLEASANT DAY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE REGION. HUMIDITY IS MAKING
A QUICK RETURN IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. INSTABILITY HAS PEAKED ALONG THE I-49
CORRIDOR...HOWEVER THERE IS A LACK OF A TRIGGER/CONVERGENCE ZONE
AND THUS A DECENT CU FIELD HAS BEEN OBSERVED. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION HEADING INTO THIS EVENING
WITH ANY RAIN CHANCES STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.

HEADING INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CONVECTION ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA. SHOULD EVENTUALLY
SEE THIS ACTIVITY CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM. PROPAGATION VECTORS
DO SUGGEST A SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT TO THIS ACTIVITY...THOUGH AT A
SLOW PACE. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR A POTENTIAL INTRUSION OF THIS ACTIVITY.

UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER BEGINS TOMORROW. WEAK UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO OOZE TO THE NORTH
WHILE ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDE A SHEAR ZONE TO OUR
NORTH. DEPENDING UPON THE BEHAVIOR OF CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH LATE
TONIGHT...THE BETTER ODDS ARE FOR A QUIET START TO THE DAY.
DAYTIME HEATING AND AN INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOURCES OF LIFT FROM OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RISK
FOR SEVERE WIND AND HAIL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR LIFT ALOFT AND A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE WITH HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS EACH PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME DRY TIME...
THOUGH TOO DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS JUNCTURE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. ANY BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL YIELD
LOCALLY HIGHER INSTABILITY AMOUNTS AND LEAD TO SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL...BUT AGAIN TIMING WILL BE KEY.

COLD FRONT CLEARS THE REGION HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND MAINLY QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
GRADUALLY AMPLIFY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SITUATED ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL OPEN
THE DOOR TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MCSS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND GRADUALLY RETURN TO ABOVE
AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

PILOTS CAN GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN AREA TERMINAL VICINITIES.

A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
THEN MAY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY
MORNING. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IF THESE STORMS WILL
IMPACT AREA TERMINALS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GAGAN
LONG TERM...GAGAN
AVIATION...FOSTER