Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 260808

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
308 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Early this morning convection was occurring over northeast Kansas
and portions of northern Missouri in area of moisture convergence
ahead of surface boundary. This area was moving east-southeast
towards our central Missouri counties. Meso scale models have
struggled with this activity wanting to dissipate it in the next few
hours, however radar trends would suggest they will make into
portions of our area. At this point not expecting anything severe
with this initial complex of storms.

Much like the last few days, uncertainty exists with the details
later today. Area remains in the warm sector with plenty of
instability. Most likely scenario today would be current
convection weakening as it moves east-southeast this morning,
with either an uptick later today or redevelopment along the
outflow boundary. Will go with higher probabilities across
central Missouri early this morning and then mid range
probabilities over the remainder of the area from late morning
through the afternoon.

For tonight, southwest upper low pushes into eastern Colorado and
western Kansas as attendant surface low deepens. Convection likely
to re-fire across central and northern Kansas aided in part by a
strengthening low level jet. As the jet veers overnight, storms
likely to push into portions of the forecast area with large hail
and damaging winds possible.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Upper low continues to weaken as it lifts northeast Friday with
trough axis poised to push through the forecast area late Friday
night into Saturday morning. Surface boundary never makes it into
Missouri and thus forecast area remains in the warm sector. Low
level jet/moisture transport does increase late Friday afternoon and
Friday night across southern Missouri and southeast Kansas likely
resulting in more widespread convection. Although sufficient
instability looks to be present, deep shear looks marginal from
Friday night into Saturday, but enough to warrant a marginal risk
for severe weather over much of the area, with large hail and
damaging winds the main threats.

Shortwave lifts away from the area Saturday, but broad
southwesterly flow continues into early next week, then medium
rage models begin to diverge as we head into the middle part of
the week. Airmass looks to change very little with a continuation
of the warm and humid conditions and thus rain/thunderstorm
chances will continue through the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Lowering ceilings with abundant
moisture in the low levels are occurring with mvfr and ifr
ceilings becoming more common over southern MO. We should continue
to see lowering ceiling over the next few hours before a gradual
improvement after 15z. Thunderstorm activity to the north will
need to be monitored with some guidance dropping it southeast into
parts of the during or just after the 12z-15z time frame.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
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