Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 262011

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
311 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

...Added Record Highs For The Next 5 Days...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

The cold front currently extending from northeast MO to southeast
KS will progress east into the forecast area through late
afternoon and evening. Cumulus field along and just east of the
front looks pretty flat and do not expect much in the way of
additional storm development along the front as clouds and showers
associated with upper level shortwave trough have decreased instability
over western/central MO considerably.

Have added patchy fog for locations mainly along and west of
Highway 65 and Lake of the Ozarks region where best chances of
temperatures dropping to the dewpoint in areas that received
light rain earlier today.

Overall expect to see similar temperatures tomorrow with decreasing
cloud cover by mid morning off-setting weak cold air advection.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Warmer temperatures return to the region by the end of the work
week as southerly winds develop in response to a deepening trough
over the northern Plains and an upper level ridge builds over the
region from the southwest. The next cold front now looks like it
will stall and weaken over northern MO late in the weekend, so
have decreased pops to below 15 percent.

The strong storm system that approaches the west coast on Sunday
is expected to shear out as it moves across the upper Midwest on
Tuesday, so have backed off precip chances with this system also,
only carrying slight chances Tuesday night/Wednesday over our
northern tier of counties.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Pilots can expect VFR to MVFR flying conditions for this afternoon
as a cold front moves into the region. A band of light rain
showers will continue to affect SGF and BBG early this afternoon
before moving eastward. Winds will be southwest this afternoon
under 10 knots with a switch to northerly very late tonight. All
model guidance indicate a low stratus deck of clouds to develop
late this evening and overnight with IFR ceilings and visibility
drop. Some guidance suggest some dense fog may develop but
confidence is low at this time. Will maintain IFR potential late
tonight and early tomorrow morning before conditions improve
greatly by late tomorrow morning.


Issued at 304 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

High temperature records for the next 5 days...

     10/27   10/28   10/29   10/30   10/31
SGF 84/1999 85/1950 86/1950 88/1937 83/1950
JLN 85/1999 84/1950 87/1950 86/1968 83/1950
UNO 88/1950 87/1950 88/1950 87/1950 86/1950
VIH 85/1977 86/1950 86/1950 88/1950 85/1950




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