Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 280527

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1227 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Convection has been ongoing across the area for a couple of hours
now. Surface boundary extends from southern Illinois across
southern Missouri to a surface low over north-central Oklahoma.
The environment is extremely unstable with SBCAPE from our 18z
sounding over 5000 J/kg and 0-6km shear at around 50 kts.  This
initial round is starting to become more linear with outflow
pushing the boundary southward.

The second round looks to be developing both in southeast Kansas
and northeast Oklahoma per SPC discussions. Will need to monitor
this closely as models...such as the HRRR...are tending to keep
the convection tied to the surface boundary. If this were to
materialize...would need to monitor for training of cells and
locally heavy rainfall along this east-west boundary.

Surface front will begin to push through the area during the
morning hours on Sunday. Rain should be out of all but south-
central Missouri by Sunday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

The upper level system then remains across the northern Great
Lakes region through Tuesday before an upper level ridge over the
western states begins to push it eastward. This will keep us in
northwest flow for the first half of the forecast period. Monday
and Tuesday should be dry but conditions will become unsettled
from Wednesday on.

By upper level trough begins to move out of the
desert southwest which will once again increase our rain chances.
Temperatures during the period will be at or slightly above
seasonal normals with highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 50s
and 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact the regions
terminals through the much of the overnight hours. MOst of the
activity will diminish before sunrise. Ceilings will be VFR to
MVFR through sunrise as well depending on where storms occur.
After Sunrise, improving conditions are expected through the day
Sunday with cloud cover scattering out by early evening.


MO...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MOZ082-083-088-



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