Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 220903
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
303 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Gulf moisture continues to stream into the Ozarks region this
morning in advance of an approaching disturbance. This disturbance
will force widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms today
While no severe storms are expected, sufficient elevated cape will
facilitate some thunderstorms, which is evident this morning over
south central Oklahoma.
Specific for today, this rainfall will be somewhat scattered in
nature, with the best areal coverage southeast of Interstate 44.
Rain will become more widespread after midnight tonight and into
Sunday, covering the entire region.
By Monday morning, all rain will exit the Ozarks, leaving behind
rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50 to 1.75 inches.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Deep northwest flow will become established over much of the lower
48 through the upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down the
Gulf of Mexico, bringing an extended period of dry weather.
As a matter of fact, we are not forecasting any precipitation all
next week. Temperatures in the 40s are expected on an afternoon
basis through Thursday. Another shot of Canadian air will then
surge through southern Missouri by Friday, bringing colder
As of now it looks as though Thursday night`s frontal passage will
be dry due to the lack of available moisture.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
Low level moisture will remain abundant across the region through
Saturday evening as a warm front remains in the vicinity of
southern Missouri. Flight categories into early Saturday morning
will generally be in the IFR category, but some brief improvement
to MVFR can be expected at times. Weather models then continue to
struggle with consistency regarding flight categories from later
Saturday morning into Saturday evening. Some models keep southern
Missouri in IFR while others lift ceilings into MVFR and even VFR.
We have chosen to go middle of the road for now and gradually lift
ceilings into the MVFR category sometime later Saturday morning or
Saturday afternoon. We are confident that scattered rain showers
will develop across the area on Saturday. Meanwhile, surface
winds will remain brisk out of the southeast to south and will be
gusty again on Saturday. Low level wind shear will continue into
early Saturday morning.