Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 240442

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1142 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

A trough noted on the 700/500mb heights combined with two MCV`s
moving across eastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma were
working to produce slow moving showers and thunderstorms across
areas just west of the Ozarks and extreme southeastern Kansas.

Across the Ozarks this afternoon, filtered sunshine through high
broken to overcast clouds and dry air over much of the region was
working against precipitation development across the region.
Models and radar trends would indicate that the area of showers
and storms will make its way into the region later this afternoon
and this evening, but will continue the current weakening trend
as it does so.

Temperatures this afternoon were in the middle to upper 70s and
remain expected to climb to around 80 degrees this afternoon.

Several short waves will move over the flattening ridge tonight
and through Tuesday. Slowly increasing surface dew points,
increasing mid level moisture and continuing southwesterly flow
aloft will bring the potential for showers and thunderstorms to
move across the region through the day Tuesday. There remains a
marginal risk for strong to severe thunderstorms to impact the
region with all modes of severe weather possible, but the primary
concern will be for large hail.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

The overall pattern will change little from Tuesday evening
through the end of the work week as the Ozarks remain on the
western edge of an upper level ridge over the southeastern CONUS.
The Ozarks will stay under upper level southwesterly flow as
rounds of ejecting short waves continue to produce periods of
showers and thunderstorms each day this week.

The combination of Gulf moisture with dew points climbing into
the 60s to near 70 degrees, outflow boundaries from daily
convection, periods of sunshine and the aforementioned shortwaves
will produce the potential for strong to severe storms each day.

By Saturday, a more potent and negatively tilted trough is
expected to move across the plains. This may bring potentially the
best day for severe weather to the region but will need to watch
how the system shapes up through the week. The current system
seems to want to move much slower than current models have been
handling it. The current timing of the system would bring it
through the region Saturday morning. If it does slow down a bit,
this could be a bit more problematic.

The overall upper level flow will remain out of the southwest
through the weekend and into next week. At this point there
appears to be little indication from the long term models of a
significant upper level pattern shift , which may keep the region
in the same weather regime for next week.

Through the forecast for this week, the potential for all modes of
severe weather will be possible. The primary concern each day
will be large hail but strong straight line winds, tornadoes and
localized flooding may all occur.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Have some IFR stratus that has built in to the SGF terminal
location. Otherwise, we have some mid level cloud cover around and
also moving in from the western convection in the Plains.
Convection not expected to occur until morning and then best
chances will be from late morning through the mid afternoon hours.
Outside of patchy areas of stratus/fog, should remain mostly VFR
overnight, but these patches could drop conditions into IFR
quickly. Convection on Tuesday will drop conditions into MVFR/IFR,
but outside of that should be VFR.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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