Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 281151
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
551 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Surface high pressure will continue to slide south and east of the
region this morning as the region remains under upper level
northwesterly flow. Developing low pressure over the northern
plains will allow for southerly flow across the region today and
through tonight. As a result, the surface pressure gradient will
increase through the day with winds gusting at times to 25-35 mph.
The southerly winds will also bring warmer weather to the Ozarks
with temperatures climbing into the 50s this afternoon.

Temperatures will fall little tonight as winds will remain up
through the overnight hours. The continuing southerly winds will
begin to bring a more moist airmass into the region along with the
warm temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 312 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Despite breezy conditions, Saturday will be a rather nice day as
temperatures climb into the 60s with partly cloudy skies.
Continued warm air and moisture advection into the region will set
the stage for precipitation late Sunday evening through early
Monday afternoon.

A cold front will approach the Ozarks during the day Sunday with
temperatures climbing to around 60 degrees again ahead of the
front. Models currently bring the front into and through most of
the Ozarks late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. This cold
front will usher in a starkly different airmass versus the one
that will be in place for much of the weekend. This airmass will
come out of the Northwest Territories of Canada and bring cold air
back the the region after a rather mild weekend.

Models break precipitation out across the eastern Ozarks by Sunday
afternoon and slowly push it to the west as the cold air pushes
under the warm and moist air that will be in place. Temperatures
will fall quickly to the freezing mark and below as precipitation
falls across the region. This will result in a change over from
light rain and drizzle Sunday afternoon to freezing drizzle and
light freezing rain Sunday evening and through Monday morning as
temperatures fall into the 20s Monday morning. Monday`s highs may
actually occur just after midnight with temperatures falling
through the day. While the moisture that will be in place looks to
remain rather shallow with little chance for any ice crystal
formation aloft, which takes snow out of the equation, the low
level and near surface temperatures look as though they will cool
quickly enough that a slight chance for sleet will exist, mainly
along the Ozarks Plateau. The chance for sleet to mix in with the
freezing drizzle/light freezing rain will occur early Monday
morning through mid day.

Overall precipitation amounts are expected to be light with only a
few hundredths falling in some locations to around a quarter inch
on the high end. Some ice accumulations are expected with up to a
tenth of an inch of accumulation possible...especially on elevated
surfaces. Where sleet occurs however, ice accumulations would be
lighter.

The Canadian high behind the cold front will bring cooler
temperatures to the region through mid week with a slow warming
trend into the end of next week into next weekend. The overall
upper level flow for much of next week will be zonal in nature
over the Ozarks with the next chance of precipitation coming
Thursday into Friday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 545 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

The main aviation impacts through this evening will be wind
related. Low level wind shear conditions will persist this
morning and will again develop tonight. Meanwhile, brisk southerly
surface winds will become gusty by mid-morning. Weather models do
start increasing low level moisture late tonight. This could
eventually lead to low clouds and potential fog. Confidence
remains low in flight category restrictions out that far given
that models can struggle handling low level moisture
return...especially with respect to timing. We have therefore held
off on a mention of MVFR/IFR, but will continue to assess this
potential for future TAF forecasts.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann




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