Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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821
FXUS63 KSGF 311810
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
110 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...18Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Instability will perk up a bit this afternoon with highs climbing
back into the upper 70s to low 80s and dew points maintaining in
the low to mid 60s. Focus on convection will be on any outflow
boundaries from the western convection and some upper level
energy. Deep layer shear appears to be rather weak today, so am
not expecting much in the way of severe storm organization.

Best chance at convection will occur from late today into
Wednesday as upper level energy and a surface front move through.
Risk of organized severe convection again looks to be low at this
time, although can`t rule out isolated stronger storms during peak
instability times.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

For Wednesday night through the remainder of the work week, the
better chances of convection over the area will be across far
southern Missouri, with surface high pressure moving across
northern MO and keeping the higher dewpoints and better
instability further to the south.

A stronger upper level shortwave and associated cold front will
sweep through the area late Saturday and will bring a cooler and
drier air mass into the region, and should sweep precipitation
chances southeast of the area for the later half of the weekend
through the early part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Isolated thunderstorms will continue to develop across the area
through this afternoon and evening. Through the rest of the
afternoon, have largely stuck to VCTS given the isolated nature.
Somewhat better chances for thunderstorms will develop during the
mid evening hours, and have added a TEMPO group to account.

Convection will likely start to die out late tonight, with at
least some potential for low stratus or fog for a time toward
daybreak. Additional thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell



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