Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 042317
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
617 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...00Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 0237 PM CDT TUE AUG 04 2015

MCV WAS PUSHING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WAS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI
INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA. CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S SO FAR TODAY AND WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN MO,
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S THERE.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE
WEEK AND FOCUS WILL BE CENTERED ON THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH FLOODING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 0237 PM CDT TUE AUG 04 2015

MCV WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SEVERAL FORCING
MECHANISMS IN PLACE.

THINGS WILL BECOME MORE INTERESTING AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY IF EXPECTED NIGHTTIME AND MORNING CONVECTION CLEARS TO
THE EAST. MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
WITH CAPES FROM 2000-4000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
START TO BRING IN 35 TO 40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR DURING THAT
SAME TIME FROM IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. IF THE INSTABILITY CAN
MATERIALIZE, THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. RIGHT NOW, WE ARE MAINLY
FOCUSING OVER THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL, WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND AND WE CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, THERE WILL BE A HEAVY
RAIN RISK AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. WE ARE GOING WITH
TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN OVER OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA AND
WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH STARTING AT 12Z WED AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 12Z THU.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 0237 PM CDT TUE AUG 04 2015

ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND
BUILD MORE INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
BUT MAY STILL HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER OUR NORTHEAST CWA ON
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN BE
ON THE RISE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA AND WILL START
TO SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES CREEP BACK INTO THE POTENTIAL ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 0612 PM CDT TUE AUG 04 2015

MESSY NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE IN STORE FOR AVIATION INTEREST ACROSS
THE REGION. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY APPEAR POSSIBLE, THOUGH NAILING DOWN EXACT COVERAGE AND
TIMING IS QUITE CHALLENGING AT THIS JUNCTURE. IN GENERAL, CARRIED
VCTS AND PROB30 GROUPS FOR THIS SET OF TAFS GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES.
BEST CHANCES RIGHT NOW APPEAR TO BE EARLY THIS EVENING, THEN LATE
IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. AT LEAST
SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

VFR SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WITH MVFR
OR EVEN IFR POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND CONVECTION.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-067>071-078>083-089>092-094>096-098.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LINDENBERG
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...BOXELL


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