Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 011936
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
236 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 236 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

Busy day with lots of flooding, water rescues, etc. MCS from last
night into this morning brought widespread moderate to heavy rain
and 3 to 5 inches of rain over central and south central MO with
isolated amounts up to 7 inches. Scattered light rain continues in
the wake of the MCS with ongoing flooding over parts of central
and south central MO. Atmosphere has struggled to recover in areas
affected by the rainfall and cloud cover today, with readings
still in the 70s. Further west on the other side of the boundary,
temperatures have shot up into the mid 80s to around 90. 18z
sounding from SGF shows quite a bit of elevated instability and PW
values around 1.75 in. along with a low level veering wind profile.

We also have some shortwave energy dropping southeast out of the
Plains which will move into the area tonight.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

Despite morning MCS and remnant cloud cover keeping the
instability in check across the eastern 1/2 to 2/3 of the CWA,
there will still be a risk of severe storms this evening into the
overnight hours. The shortwave energy will drop southeast into the
area with increasing low level jet south of the low across
southern MO. Instability along and west of the boundary has really
increased this afternoon with surface based CAPES increasing into
the 3500-4000 j/kg range over the southwest corner of MO. In
addition, the CIN has decreased to almost nothing there. Should
have a decent amount of shear develop this evening, especially as
the shortwave begins to push into the area and low level jet
increases. Those things combined, we are thinking all modes of
severe storms will be possible initially this evening with storm
modes beginning out as supercellular. Storms are expected to form
into an MCS overnight and affect roughly the same locations which
received the heavy rain and flooding last night into this morning.
With an additional widespread 1-2 inches over these same locations
we can expect additional flash flooding to occur and will keep the
flash flood watch going through 12z Thursday for the same
locations.

Rain should come to an end during the morning Thursday with
additional development possible south of highway 60 over southern
Missouri on Thursday afternoon. There will be a slight risk of
severe storms there along and south of the boundary.



.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

It looks like we will remain in a northwest flow pattern with
continued shortwave energy pushing into the area through the
Holiday weekend. While the most organized convection is expected to
remain south of the area this weekend, there will remain a daily
chance of thunderstorms across the forecast area so those with
outdoor interests should stay tuned in to the forecast.

Another frontal boundary will begin to slowly work southeast into
the area early next week and will bring another more organized
round of thunderstorms. With the front possibly becoming
stationary over the area, the risk of thunderstorms will linger into the
middle of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: Biggest question is on both convective
potential this afternoon/evening and its exact timing for the taf sites.
Currently, water vapor imagery showing shortwave over southeast
Nebraska with short term models pushing this southeast across
western Missouri and eastern Kansas this afternoon/evening. Although
clouds have been prevalent at the taf sites, some breaks are
occurring and expect atmosphere to destabilize across southwest
Missouri. Convection likely to develop late this afternoon and
evening and then traverse to the southeast overnight maintained by
an increasing low level jet/moisture transport. Short term models
suggesting these cells could affect the taf sites from mid
evening on, especially at KSGF and KBBG. Due to uncertainties did
only go with a prob30 group at KSGF and KBBG and VCTS at KJLN.
With strengthening low level jet again tonight expect some LLWS to
develop once again.

As for ceilings/visibilities, mainly VFR expected with lower MVFR
and possibly IFR in the stronger convective elements. Models do
suggest more widespread MVFR ceilings late tonight and early
Thursday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-079>083-091-092-096>098-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Raberding





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