Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 242104
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
304 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

We have seen scattered light rain showers and snow showers off and
on all day across the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures have been in
the middle to upper 30s with no impacts from the light snow
showers. The radar as of mid afternoon still shows a few light
showers mainly east of Highway 65 and will continue to gradually
come to an end by sunset this afternoon.

The upper level trough will finally pull away from the region
tonight and clouds will clear from west to east starting around
midnight and be gone over the eastern Ozarks by sunrise. When
skies do clear...temperatures will fall into the upper 20s and
then level off as a light southerly winds will return late
tonight.

The main weather story for Christmas Day will be the return of
sunshine across the entire area. It will be a beautiful day but it
will be very windy as well. A developing low pressure area on the
Lee of the Rockies will be forming tomorrow afternoon. A strong
pressure gradient will be over the area. Southerly winds may gust
up to 40 mph especially areas west of Highway 65. At this
time...will not issue any wind advisories but the overnight
forecaster may look at this possibility again with the overnight
model data. It will be close to wind advisory criteria for areas
along and west of I-49 midday and tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures
will be about 10 degrees above average tomorrow with highs on
either side of 50.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

Our next storm system will be digging down into the Four Corners
Region of the country on Friday. We will be in a broad southwest
flow in the upper levels at the same time we will see Gulf of
Mexico moisture returning in the low levels. Friday will be
another mild day with highs in the lower to middle 50s but the
clouds will be coming back and areas of drizzle or light showers developing
by the late afternoon.

Widespread showers will develop late Friday night ahead of a cold
front moving down the Plains Region. The models have slowed down
the cold air advection somewhat for late Friday night into
Saturday. It appears that we will mostly a cold rain with this
storm system Friday night into Saturday with cold air advection
moving in during the day on Saturday and temperatures falling. The
high temperatures may actually occur early Saturday morning closer
to midnight and then slowly fall during the day on Saturday with
showers. There is a small window for some rain to briefly mix with
a few sleet pellets or wet snow flakes Saturday as the precip
moves out. Right now it appears the ground will be too warm and
temperatures above freezing for any impacts and no accumulations
expected at this time.

It will turn seasonably colder for the latter part of the weekend
into early next week. We will see a couple drier days Sunday and
Monday. All model guidance is pointing to a chunk of Arctic air
moving out of Canada down into the central U.S. middle of next
week. This airmass will be originating from the Yukon Territory
and a 1050 mb or stronger high will come down middle and end of
next week.

It appears that Arctic front will be arriving Monday night or
early Tuesday. We will have to watch the upper level pattern during
this time because the models show a lot of energy in a trough
holding back across the Four Corners Region of the country which
would put our area in a southwest flow aloft. Will go ahead and
mention light snow showers or flurries possible with the Arctic
front and behind it Monday night and Tuesday. Highs middle of next
week could be in the 20s and overnight lows down in the single
digits and teens.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

Near term concerns revolve around lingering light
rain/snow/drizzle and stratus. As discussed in the above update,
this precipitation will persist for a few more hours this
afternoon before exiting stage east. Lowest ceilings will be with
precipitation with IFR expected at SGF for a couple more hours.
All sites will be MVFR from mid afternoon into this evening.
Question becomes just how orderly the stratus will exit. At this
point, clearing at JLN will be this evening, with SGF/BBG around
midnight tonight. Attention then turns to gust south wind
potential on Christmas Day. Speeds will ramp up during the late
morning, with gusts in excess of 30kt at JLN/SGF just beyond the
end of the forecast.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan






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