Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 162312
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
512 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

...00z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 225 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Southwest winds have picked up this afternoon as pressure gradient
has tightened and we have started to mix down some higher winds.
The dry southwest air has caused RH values to also dip into the
teens to 20s across the area...meeting red flag conditions across
the red flag warning region. This red flag warning will continue
until 6 pm. Winds should relax this evening and should start to
see humidity levels improve as well.

Main focus in the short term will continue to be with temperatures
and fire weather conditions on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Winds are expected to diminish at the surface this evening and
there should be some recovery in the dewpoints and rh values as
well. At this point, will continue the red flag warning through 6
pm as it currently stands. Low level warm advection will persist
through tonight and Friday which will keep mild conditions at
night and even warmer high temperatures on Friday into the upper
60s to low 70s. Fire weather conditions are maintaining in the
elevated category for now (as opposed to todays significant
levels) with higher RH values and lower winds expected on Friday.
So for now, we are not planning any additional headlines.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

A closed low will slowly track to our south Friday night and we
may see some shower activity across the eastern Ozarks, but
probabilities look pretty low at this point with most of the
moisture and lift staying south of our CWA. Saturday may be
slightly cooler than Friday with a bit more cloud cover in
association with the low passing to our south, but will still be
well above normal in the 60s. By Sunday, we warm back into the
70s, and we should see 60s and 70s for much of next week.

As the low passes off to the east by Saturday night, will start to
see upper ridging build back into the area along with low level
warm advection, which will bring us continued well above normal
temperatures.

Will eventually see the ridge pass to the east of us early next
week, but with the blocking pattern, it will be a slow go. Once
the ridge shifts east, will see some upper level southwest flow in
advance of the next trough and eventually some shower/thunderstorm
chances during the first half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 510 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

VFR will continue through the next 24 hours across the area.
Mostly clear skies and south-southwesterly winds. Winds will relax
somewhat overnight but become gusty again by midday and afternoon
on Friday. There might be some non convective low level wind
shear potential late tonight with a strong low level jet right off
the surface.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 6 pm for locations
along and north of a Neosho to Hartville to Rolla, Missouri line.

Gusty southwest winds will continue until the early evening with
some gusts over 30 mph. Humidity levels have dipped into the teens
to 20s within the red flag warning area.

Will gradually see winds diminish this evening as the sun sets and
humidity levels should begin to recover this evening.

We will also see elevated fire weather conditions over much of the
area Friday afternoon due to brisk southwest winds and low
humidities. At this time, we may see just enough of a moisture
increase to preclude fire weather headlines. However, models are
usually too quick to return moisture. Thus, interested parties
should also monitor fire weather forecasts for Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 518 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

We will be in range for more record high temperatures possibly
this weekend.

Record Highs/YearFeb 17th Feb 18thFeb 19th
Springfield 73/191174/194871/2004
Joplin77/191178/198675/2011
West Plains 77/1986 77/198673/1981
Vichy-Rolla73/201172/199170/2004

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>082-088>094.

KS...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Griffin
FIRE WEATHER...Lindenberg
CLIMATE...Griffin



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