Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 131130
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
630 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Warm advection based persistent patchy light rain to be initial
forecast challenge. Wavy flow aloft has provided some support
however very weak low level flow suggests any additional shortwave
support to be minimal and existing showers to diminish by early
morning in line with the HRRR.

Isolated TSRA development later this afternoon cannot be ruled out
but again identifying a shortwave to support lift is a challenge.

Easterly winds will dominate most of the day today keeping temps
unclimatologically cool...with the mercury only climbing a few
degrees higher then on Monday as thicknesses show limited
response.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 318 AM Sun Aug 13 2017

Temperatures will rebound closer to normal levels during the
middle of the week as the upper flow turns a bit more to the
southwest. This will also support a better chance for TSRA as lee
side cyclogenesis occurs and the surface low moves across the
Central Plains Wednesday into Thursday.

Models are then showing differences late in the workweek into the
weekend leading to lowered confidence for the development of any
significant waves/precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Scattered light rain showers were found
across southern Missouri this morning. Along with the showers were
some MVFR ceilings and visibilities, mainly affecting the KBBG
and KSGF taf sites. Expect ceilings to rise to VFR later this
morning. There could be isolated storms this afternoon, with the
slightly better chances at KBBG and KJLN.

Short term models indicate lowering ceilings tonight across the
area, likely impacting all the taf sites after 06Z. Lower MVFR to
possibly IFR conditions likely to spread northward out of Arkansas
through the overnight hours, with the lowest ceilings likely
toward the end of the taf period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Raberding



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