000
FXUS63 KSGF 220510
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1210 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA WITH ONE AREA PUSHING INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS AND ANOTHER
PUSHING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ARE CLIPPING FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH THIS ACTIVITY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER FROM THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH
HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS IS LIMITING HEATING WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. THE AREA WAS ALSO
WORKED OVER FROM THE STORMS THAT OCCURRED MONDAY EVENING AND
DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 60S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS
A RESULT OF THESE...INSTABILITY IS MUCH LOWER THAN IT HAS BEEN
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS GENERALLY ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO EXPECT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO THE WEAKER
INSTABILITY BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS THAT MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.
THE MAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. THE MAIN RISK WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL
BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH.THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE CONVECTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL VORTEX OVER NORTHEASTERN IOWA WEDNESDAY EVENING
OPENS INTO A TROUGH AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN RIDGE
BY FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
SLOPE OF THE ROCKIES BUILDS SHARPLY NORTHWARD AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD
WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM TEXAS TO FAR SOUTHERN CANADA
BR FRIDAY MORNING.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD AND
EXPAND INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. A NORTHEAST...THEN EASTERLY FLOW ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE CWA UNDER FAIR SKIES
AND NORMAL TO JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATER MAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:

PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS STATES
SHIFT VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ALIGNING ON A LOUISIANA TO MINNESOTA AXIS
BY MONDAY MORNING...LOSING AMPLIFICATION SOMEWHAT AS WELL. AT THIS
TIME THE ECMWF TENDS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN THE
GFS BUT BOTH MODELS DO DEPICT A SERIES OF WEAK BUT PROGRESSIVE
DISTURBANCES (RIDGE RUNNERS) TRANSITING THE RIDGE FROM SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL KICK OFF INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. EXPECT TOTAL QPF VALUES TO RANGE
FROM ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH FOR THE ENTIRE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER WESTERN MISSOURI
AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AS LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE FLOW...CAPE
VALUES AND ANY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE VALUES ARE STRONGEST IN THESE
AREAS.

TOOK A LOOK AT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THIS WEEKEND AND BELIEVE
WHILE WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY. PARTICULARLY...UPPER LEVEL AND DYNAMIC
SUPPORT IS WEAK AS THE UPPER RIDGE...ALTHOUGH WEAKER...IS THE
DOMINANT FEATURE AND ANY SHOT WAVE ACTIVITY IS RATHER WEAK. BOTH
MOST UNSTABLE AND SURFACE COMPUTED CAPE VALUES ARE
AMPLE...GENERALLY IN THE 1500J/KG TO 2500J/KG RANGE...BUT ZERO TO
SIX KM BULK SHEAR VALUES GENERALLY REMAIN WEAK...IN THE 20 TO 30
KT RANGE.

SOME RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL TAKE PLACE ON TUESDAY
AS THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY ON
TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY...PLACING THE CWA IN
A STEADY AND WARMING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SMALL
BAND OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT BBG OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...
OTHERWISE SLOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF GROUND
FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW. WEST WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY TODAY.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...COLUCCI
AVIATION...GAGAN