Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 171058
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
558 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions today through Tuesday.

- Sub freezing temperatures forecast for most of the area Monday
  morning and Tuesday morning.

- Rain chances return late Wednesday into Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
early this morning shows the cutoff low in about the same place
as last night at this time in Arizona. High amplitude ridge axis
extended from the Pacific west of California to the northeast
into the Pacific northwest. East of that ridge axis, a polar jet
streak was shifting southeast across the plains and upper
Mississippi valley which helped to push a front through the area
earlier today and this evening. Mid level cloud cover was over
the southern half of Missouri, however precipitation was south
of the area with the better lift and moisture. Temperatures over
the area were still in the upper 40s to upper 50s across the
area with dew points in the upper 20s to low 40s.

Today and tonight: The cold air mass will continue to plunge
south into the area today with cloud cover eventually ending
during the late morning and early afternoon. Winds will then
gust into the 20 to 30 mph range. Afternoon humidity levels will
dip into the 20 to 32 percent range which will bring about
widespread elevated fire weather conditions. Afternoon highs
will be cooler than yesterday...in the low 50s to around 60. A
cold night is in store for the area with a hard freeze over much
of the area. While we are not quite doing freeze warnings yet
for the Spring growing season, those who already have outdoor
vegetation growing may want to take preventive measuress for a
hard freeze over the next couple of nights. We are looking at
lows in the mid 20s to around 30 tonight.

Monday: While plenty of sunshine is expected with a dry air mass
moving overhead, it will be cold with highs only in the mid to
upper 40s. Normal highs for this time of year are in the upper
50s to low 60s. Another afternoon with humidity levels in the 20
to 30 percent range will lead to elevated fire weather
conditions again.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Sub Freezing temperatures again on Monday night: While the
Canadian high pressure system will push south of the area on
Monday into Monday night with a return to a southerly wind, the
dry air mass and clear sky will allow temperatures to dip back
into the mid 20s to low 30s across the area for another hard
freeze for all but the far west.

Elevated fire weather conditions continue into Tuesday: Dry air
will continue into Tuesday afternoon with humidity levels again
dipping into the 20s and 30s.

Rain chances return late Wednesday into Thursday night. The
cutoff low in the desert southwest will begin to open up with
the trough shifting eastward during the middle to later part of
the week. Some timing and location differences are still
occurring within the ensemble data, however it does bring rain
chances back to the area from late Wednesday into Thursday
night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 554 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

For the 12z TAFS, mid and upper level cloud cover remains over
the CWA, with the lower ceilings in the far southern CWA
including BBG. Ceilings were still in the VFR category. Radar
was showing some scattered light showers over northern Arkansas
into far southern MO, but given the very dry lower levels, not
expecting anything more than a sprinkle at BBG. Ceilings at
SGF/JLN were already above the reporting level which is 12kft.
Expect some VFR ceilings through the morning with clearing by
late morning and early afternoon. Should start to see some gusty
winds develop by late morning as cold high pressure continues to
build into the area. Some gusts up to 25 kts will be possible,
but should diminish by around 00z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg


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