Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 181036
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
536 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

...12z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

A weak surface high pressure is currently over northern Arkansas
this morning and fairly comfortable temperatures being reported.
Generally fair skies being seen. The local weather cameras show
some very localized dense lake fog affecting the Branson area near
Table Rock Lake this morning. We are expecting temperatures to
warm up into the upper 80s this afternoon. High-res short term
models indicate a small chance for an isolated shower or storm by
this afternoon across portions of southeast Kansas and western
Missouri.

A decent mid level wave will move across the region this evening
into overnight. Model guidance suggest a complex of storms will
develop somewhere near eastern Kansas or western Missouri and
move southeastward. Exact placement is still questionable but
development timing looks like late evening and affecting the
Missouri Ozarks area between midnight and 6 am Saturday morning
before moving out of the area. Due to pretty decent lapse rates
between 500 and 700 mb and shear values, there will be at least a
limited threat for isolated damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and
large hail up to quarter size with the strong storms. Will also
mention a very limited localized heavy rainfall threat depending
on the movement of these storms.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Saturday looks like a decent day across much of the area. Another
weak wave of energy make develop widely scattered convection again
very late Saturday night into Sunday. The overall confidence is
low at this time but will mention the potential for a few showers
or storms around. It will be typical warmth this weekend with
highs near 90 and humid.

The most important day for weather and sky conditions obviously
will be midday Monday. The GFS is a little more bullish on QPF
and scattered shower or storm chances than the ECMWF. At this
time, we will lean a little more to the ECMWF with pops and
overall sky cover. We will mention about a 20 pop for isolated
showers or storm Monday afternoon and mainly partly cloudy skies
with high around 90. During the solar eclipse, we may see a slight
dip in temperatures of 2 to 5 degrees between noon and 2 pm.

An unsettled weather pattern will continue by middle of next week
with front through by Wednesday. Showers and storm chances will
come with that frontal passage followed by cooler and drier air
end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 517 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

VFR conditions are expected today into this evening with light
southerly winds less than 10 knots. There is low confidence at
this time of a complex of convection affecting TAF sites
overnight between 05z to 10z. Have mentioned a PROB30 group for
this possiblity.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Griffin



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