Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 011136 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
636 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

A cool and cloudy morning is underway across the region, as the area
largely remains under the influence of an upper low slowly spinning
east across east central Arkansas.  This upper low should finally
move far enough east of the area by this afternoon to allow for
partial clearing.   Owning to cool air aloft and the partial cloud
cover, temperatures will remain some 5 to 10 degrees below average,
with highs in upper 60s to mid 70s.  The warmer readings can be
expected over southeastern Kansas and western Missouri, where the
opportunity for sunshine will be higher.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

Easterly flow will remain in place at the surface for the next
couple of days, as ridging builds aloft and surface high pressure
remains anchored across the Great Lakes.  Temperatures will recover
a few degrees each day starting Wednesday, with low to mid 80s
expected by the end of the workweek.  With surface winds coming from
the east, dewpoints are expected to stay relatively comfortable
(especially by June standards), as readings remain in the 50s and
low 60s.

Winds will become more southerly, and eventually
southwesterly, starting late Wednesday.  Increasingly muggy
conditions will follow, along with increasing chances for
thunderstorms as dewpoints increase to near 70 degrees by Friday.
Thunderstorm chances Wednesday and Thursday will largely be
suppressed by large scale subsidence associated with ridging aloft,
though a couple of storms during the heat of the afternoon can`t be
ruled out.  By Friday into Saturday, however, a couple of shortwaves
will top the ridge and at least try to carve out a modified
northwest flow aloft. Ascent associated with these features, along
with an associated surface front, should result in a decent shot for
convection through at least the first part of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 636 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

Stratus maintains a tenuous hold on the regional aerodromes this
morning and gradual improvement is expected over the next 6 or so
hours. Lowest flight conditions will be at BBG, where IFR
ceilings will persist through mid morning before lifting to MVFR
and eventual VFR during the afternoon. JLN and SGF ceilings have
improved to low end VFR, but bouts of MVFR will remain possible
for a time this morning. By late this afternoon into tonight, VFR
conditions are expected with easterly winds. Will need to watch
fog potential at BBG late tonight as mid/high level clouds clear
late.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Gagan






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