Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 150735
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
235 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tuesday night)

A few sprinkles were moving into southern Missouri this morning in
response to weak isentropic ascent over Oklahoma. It`s unlikely
that measurable rainfall will occur with this activity, and we
think the radar echoes will decline through the morning hours.

This will give way to a mostly dry morning across the Ozarks,
under cloudy skies and southerly breezes.

Rain chances however, will increase this afternoon and evening, as
an upper level disturbance forces a cold front into southern
Missouri.

We think sufficient instability will result in some thunderstorms,
particularly along the Interstate 44 corridor late this afternoon.

Eventually this area of rainfall will drift south near the
Arkansas border into the overnight hours. Some models suggest that
convection will persist overnight near the Arkansas border. So we
have left precipitation chances down there into Tuesday morning.

Eventually the stalled out front over Arkansas begins to wash out
and we lose our forcing mechanism for rainfall. This will lead to
dry conditions from Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)

Precipitation chances ramp up again on Wednesday as an upper speed
max passes over a mid level zone of baroclinicity. Additional
showers and thunderstorms will occur, and we think most locations
will receive some measurable rain. Specifically if this same
pattern continues into Thursday, which both the GFS and ECMWF suggests.

By Friday and the upcoming weekend, a ridge of high pressure will
build back into the nation`s mid section. This will result in
mostly dry weather along with a warming trend. As a matter of
fact, readings could trend back into the 80s this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...High and mid level clouds are
increasing across the area ahead of a weak disturbance pushing
east across Oklahoma. Some light showers or sprinkles are beginning
to develop across Oklahoma late this evening. Cloud bases are
high and there is also some dry air over the area that has to be
over come which will limit widespread showers overnight. Still
think some scattered showers or sprinkles will still occur across
the area overnight with the best potential farther south. Have
included a tempo group for showers overnight at the KBBG site and
have left out of the KJLN and KSGF TAFs as confidence is a little
lower that they will be affected.

Winds will be out of the south to southeast overnight and will
increase some and become southwesterly during the day on Monday.

A cold front will then drop south through the region Monday
evening. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
front as it drops through the area. Behind the front winds will
switch to the north to northeast and ceilings will drop into the
MVFR range.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Wise





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