000
FXUS63 KSGF 262257
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
557 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Moderately gusty southwest winds have resulted in hot temperatures
over the region with mid afternoon readings at airport/fire wx/and
many ag sites in the mid and upper 90s. The exception is somewhat
cooler KUNO/West Plains in south central MO and in the far
northern cwfa where cloud cover has been more abundant. Dew
points have mixed out in many locations (but not quite all...the
exception some forested and cloud covered areas). In general the
warmest heat index values are in the 100-105 deg F range as of 2
pm.

Cloud cover associated with an MCV will skirt at least the northern
cwfa into early evening along with some some sprinkles/light
showers along the southern edge of more widespread precip.

A sfc trough/cold front will move south through the area late
tonight and Sunday morning as a shortwave moves south into the
upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Will continue to carry some low
pops, but weak convergence along the boundary and a lack of deep
moisture will make widespread and/or prolonged precip hard to come
by this far south. Could use the rain.

Cooler air will lag the wind shift a bit on Sunday, but overall it
should be at least somewhat cooler in most areas. The far southern
cwfa will still see some heat index values in the mid 90s to
around 100 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A persistent blocking pattern over much of NOAM and the north
Pacific with keep a high latitude upper level cyclonic circulation in
place over/near southern Hudson Bay with an upper trough extending
south into the eastern CONUS. As a result, much cooler than normal
temperatures are expected over the region for the upcoming work
week. Could see some light precip by Thu and Fri as subtle
shortwaves/disturbances move southeast through the Plains. Will
carry some low pops produced by a model consensus, but it looks
like better precip chances will stay more w-sw of the region where
better moisture from the the western Gulf of Mexico will reside.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 555 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Mainly expecting VFR conditions through the period. Will have low
level wind shear from the late evening through the overnight hours
at the 3 taf sites. Have gone with VCTS wording from late evening
into a portion of the overnight for any convection that may fire
this evening to the northwest of our CWA and track this way.
Conditions could go into MVFR should a thunderstorm move over the
terminal location. The front will move through during the morning
Sunday with winds becoming northwest to north and a clearing sky
behind the front.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>057-066>070-
     077>081-088-089-093.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg