396
FXUS63 KSGF 171107
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
607 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...12z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Showers and isolated storms working their way through far
southern Missouri and the eastern Ozarks early this morning,
while Infrared satellite imagery shows back edge of clouds
extending from northeast through south central Kansas. With the
heavier rains out of the Flash Flood Watch area, will go ahead and
cancel watch before its 12z expiration. HRRR indicates
showers/storms to exit the area this morning. This will be
followed by clearing skies and quiet conditions for the afternoon
hours, with a slow decrease in dew points and a bit more
comfortable conditions.

High pressure settles overhead tonight with clear skies and light
winds expected. There could be some fog potential through the
overnight hours. The caveats to this is boundary layer mixing as
model forecast soundings indicating some stronger winds just off
the surface and a continuation of drier air advecting in from the
north. Lows look to be comfortable with readings in the lower to
middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

A quiet day is expected for much of Friday. However, as the high
slides eastward low level moisture will return rather quickly across
Oklahoma and Kansas as a shortwave trough drops southeast across
Iowa and northern Missouri. This will likely spawn some
showers/storms over Kansas and western and northern Missouri late in
the day and overnight Friday. GFS/NAM have been consistent with an
MCS skirting our southeast Kansas and far southwest Missouri
counties Friday night, which may lead to some heavy rains and at
least a limited flooding threat. Will have to watch closely later
model runs with its exact track.

Medium range models continue the trend of building a ridge across
the area from the weekend into early next week. This will lead to an
uptick in temperatures and humidity levels from Saturday into
Tuesday. Despite the rising heights it looks like there will be some
chances for precipitation during this time. Early indications for the
eclipse on Monday is looking like partly cloudy skies with the
possibility of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
However, confidence is rather low this far out.

A cold front slips through the area Wednesday with a continued
chance for rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Some MVFR to IFR ceilings may be around for SGF and JLN. The IFR
ceiling potential will be mentioned through 14z this morning with
gradual improving to VFR by late morning for all TAF sites. VFR
will continue this afternoon and tonight. Winds will be shifting
from southerly to westerly today around 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Griffin