000
FXUS63 KSGF 122041
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
341 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

Weak boundary making its way south of I-44 may yet lead to
isolated convection over the eastern CWA where MLCAPES are in the
500-1200 range and CIN is limited though upper support is lacking
and lift along the front insufficient to maintain any storms that
could break the cap. Also, a dry airmass in the mid level is also
limiting updraft potential.

Long wave trough will dig southward toward the Great Lakes driving a
second cold front through the region on Sunday. MLCAPES of
1000-2000 without CIN to lead to scattered storms along and ahead
of the front Sunday afternoon. Weak shear though will make it
difficult for convection to become organized.

High temperatures Sunday will be the last day in the 90s before a
dry Canadian air mass descends into the eastern U.S.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

Models all carve a significant upper trough through the Great
Lakes during the period resulting in unseasonably cool weather for
the coming work week.

A short wave and associated height falls will descend the western
side of the trough on Monday providing the best chance for rain
during the forecast period.

Upper flow will turn west-northwest on Thursday allowing
temperatures to begin to recover on Friday into the coming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail over southwestern Missouri
Airfields for the duration of the TAF forecast period. High
pressure over the southeastern States and Gulf Coast will continue
to push a warm and moist southerly flow of air into the area. A
weak cold front will bring the risk of some shower or thunderstorm
activity to the area later on Sunday Evening.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Colucci