000
FXUS63 KSGF 210527
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1227 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to mid 80s so far
this afternoon with dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s. An
upper level shortwave was pushing southeast across the Missouri
Ozarks this afternoon, but with PW values just over an inch and
thermal cap in place, not much more than broken deck of CU to
speak of.

Forecast will focus on the heat and humidity for Monday and
Tuesday, chance of storms Tuesday night into Wednesday night and
possible pattern change by next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Will probably see most locations with lows in the 60s tonight as
better moisture begins to shift into the region, however a few
upper 50s may still be possible in the low lying areas of the
eastern Ozarks. Southeast Kansas and far western Missouri could
have lows in the upper 60s. The shortwave currently pushing
through southern Missouri will continue shifting southeast tonight
and Monday while a cutoff low develops with this feature along the
Gulf Coast as an upper level ridge builds in the Ozarks from the
southwest. 850mb temperatures should warm into the low to mid 20`s
and will likely see surface temperatures from the upper 80s east
to mid 90`s west on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Tuesday will be the hottest day of the week with even warmer 850mb
temperatures and surface readings likely in the low to mid 90`s.
With plenty of greenery around, probably not looking at any 100
degree temperatures here, but could see more humidity and we do
project afternoon heat index values on Tuesday to be in the mid
90`s east to around 104 in the west.

Shortwave energy is then expected to track across the northern
Plains into the upper Mississippi valley region late Tuesday into
Tuesday night. This energy could dive to the southeast Tuesday
night and break up the eastern part of the upper level ridge with
surface boundary sinking to the south into the region Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible
during that time frame. Shear looks pretty weak and am not
expecting any widespread severe storms at this point.

Ridge begins to build back into the area late in the week from the west,
but another strong shortwave along the U.S. Canadian border is
expected to dive southeast over the weekend with a large scale
trough developing to our east by early the following week. After
initial convective chances late in the weekend could see a return
to cooler than normal temperatures as stronger northwest flow
develops aloft and high amplitude ridge backbuilds westward into
the U.S. and Canadian Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through
Monday.

With surface high pressure positioned to our east and low
pressure developing across the high Plains, southerly winds will
increase on Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster