Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 162007
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
207 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

...Bitterly Cold Tonight with Warming Trend Later Week...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 155 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

A bitterly cold Arctic airmass will remain entrenched across the
Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas tonight as Arctic high
pressure transitions southeastward into the area. With diminishing
winds this evening expect temperatures to quickly tumble below
zero across much of the area. Lowered temperatures from much of
guidance and generally going near zero to around 5 below zero.
With diminishing winds the wind chill will not be as brutal as
this morning but still in the 5 to 10 below range.

The Arctic high will slide to the southeast on Wednesday bringing
a return southerly flow by afternoon which will begin a warming
trend. However Wednesday will remain cold.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 155 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

A substantial warming trend will occur from late week into this
weekend. Southerly winds will increase with high pressure becomes
centered across the southeastern U.S. while low pressure develops
across the Plains. Persistent warm air advection will erode the
snowpack with time. Temperatures will make a more substantial jump
Friday and Saturday once we lose the snow and a pronounced
southwesterly flow develops ahead of an upper level trough moving
into the western U.S.

A strong storm system will take shape across the Plains this
weekend as the upper level trough progresses eastward. Expect
increasing wind along with a good chance of showers and possibly
some thunderstorms Sunday as deep low pressure tracks into the
Midwest and a cold front sweeps across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

An Arctic airmass had spread across the region, bringing
temperatures down into the single digits this morning.

Northerly breezes will persist through much of the day. No
obstructions to visibilities or low ceilings expected.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Chill Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for MOZ079>082-
     088>098-101>106.

KS...Wind Chill Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for KSZ101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Cramer



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