Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 082359
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
659 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 523 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

The surface front has now made it out of southern Missouri and is
at least partially responsible for the development of strong to
severe storms across northern Arkansas late this afternoon.

The 850 mb front is not too far behind the surface front and will
be clearing the border over the next few hours. With low level dry
air advection already commencing across far southern Missouri, it
appears that the window for thunderstorms has shut across southern
Missouri.

We could still see a stray shower across far southwestern Missouri
for the next few hours. Otherwise, we are looking at dry
conditions overnight.

We have already made updates to the public and Hazardous Weather
Outlook suite of products.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

A cold front is slowly making its way south through the forecast
area this afternoon, having reached roughly the I-44 corridor by 2
PM.  This front will continue south into northern Arkansas tonight
before stalling out.  A few thunderstorms will remain possible this
afternoon and evening along/ahead of the front, though with the best
moisture and low level convergence becoming focused increasingly
south of the area, any activity should be widely scattered and
generally only affect the southern-most counties in Missouri.  While
there is an outside chance of a strong storm or two this afternoon,
the overall severe weather threat is limited.

Any thunderstorms that develop this afternoon should dissipate by
mid evening as the sun sets, with a cooler night on tap as a much
drier airmass builds into the region along with an area of surface
high pressure.  With that high moving overhead tonight, some patchy
of fog might be possible, though enough dry air should advect into
the region to keep the overall fog threat to a minimum, despite
recent rains. Vis and dewpoint trends will be monitored this
evening, however.

A rather comfortable day is then on tap for the region for
Wednesday, as that surface high remains solidly in control across
the area.  Temperatures will be on the cool side of average, with
dewpoints in the upper 50s/around 60.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

As that high shifts to the east tomorrow night, the front will start
to return back over the region as a warm front.  Thunderstorms are
expected to develop along that warm front Wednesday night and may
affect western portions of the CWA Thursday morning, though they
should weaken with eastward progression on Thursday.  The warm front
will continue to move/mix northeast across the region Thursday as
heights begin to rise aloft.

Much warmer and more humid conditions will return to the region
Friday through the weekend, as the upper ridge currently over the
Intermountain West becomes established over the Central Plains.
Temperatures in the mid 90s can be expected Saturday and Sunday,
especially over southeastern Kansas and western/southwestern
Missouri.  While by no means unusual for this time of year,
Saturday`s mid 90s highs may end up being the warmest of the year so
far for Springfield (91 so far) and perhaps Joplin (94 so far).

By early next week, the upper ridge will begin to break down as
northwest flow strengthens across the Great Lakes.  This should
spell cooler temperatures for the region during at least the first
portion of next workweek, along with the potential for additional
rounds of rainfall, as a cold front moves south through the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 653 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

VFR conditions will continue through tonight with decreasing high
clouds. A few flat-topped late morning and afternoon cumulus
clouds are then expected on Wednesday. Winds will remain light
out of the north to northwest as high pressure builds into the
region.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann





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