Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 151113
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
513 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

...12Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Quite a bit of moisture continues to stream northeast into the
area early this morning, with widespread precipitation occurring
across the forecast area. As of 2 AM, the surface freezing line
stretched from roughly Columbus Kansas to Lamar, then to Bolivar,
Fort Leonard Wood, and on to Rolla. This line will move little
through mid morning or so today. Along and north of this line,
widespread freezing rain can be expected through morning, with a
quarter to half inch of ice accretion expected. The highest ice
amounts are still expected across the northwestern CWA (Lamar to
Nevada/Ft Scott, east to Lake of the Ozarks), where temperatures
are coldest and ice accretion will be most efficient.

Will continue the Ice Storm Warning unchanged for now, though it
is certainly possible that a few counties along the southern edge
may be able to be trimmed away early before the entire warning
expires at noon. Low level WAA is expected to increase later this
morning, and that will help the freezing line finally push north
toward I-70 by mid day.

Continued warm air advection tonight will generally offset any
diurnal drop in temperature, so lows tonight will likely be quite
similar to today`s high temperatures. Additional rain and perhaps
a few thunderstorms will move in from the west.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 230 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Rain and thunderstorms will continue Monday, as a closed upper
level low lifts north toward the region. Precipitation should
finally end Monday night as that low and associated surface front moves
east of the area. Highs on Monday will be mild, with readings in
the 50s and low 60s.

Cooler, though seasonable, temperatures are expected Tuesday
behind the front.

The overall upper level pattern gets somewhat messy and
disorganized during the middle portion of the workweek, with broad
split flow over the region. This should support generally dry
conditions, along with warmer temperatures. Highs Wednesday
through Friday look to reach the upper 50s and low 60s.
Rain chances will be on the low side, though a few stray showers
will be possible as a couple of weak waves move through the
region.

More organized rain chances then look to return by next weekend,
as the upper level flow becomes better organized and large scale
troughing develops over the western US. With southwest flow aloft,
however, temperatures will likely remain on the mild side.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 510 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

IFR to LIFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours,
with ceilings generally bouncing between 300 and 500 ft AGL.
Visibility will be quite variable, with areas of fog and rain
reducing vis to less than 2 mi at times.

A break in precipitation is expected later this afternoon, before
more rain and maybe a thunderstorm or two move into tonight. LLWS
will also become a concern late tonight, along with increasing
surface winds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Ice Storm Warning until noon CST today for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>081-083-089.

KS...Ice Storm Warning until noon CST today for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Boxell



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