Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 261746 AAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1146 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014
...Updated Aviation Section...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Saturday night)
Southerly breezes persisted overnight as low pressure expanded
across the Plains. Warmer temperatures resulted with lows only
falling into the 40s. Temperatures today should be similar to
yesterday with highs in the 50s. We could experience some high 50s
in areas out toward Joplin and Pittsburg.
These south winds were also bringing an increase in moisture,
which will set the stage for some light rainfall starting late this
afternoon out near the Kansas and Missouri border.
For locations along the I-44 corridor, the better chances for
light rain will occur overnight tonight, with light rain tapering
from west to east Saturday morning.
For areas of south central Missouri, this rain could linger
through Saturday and into Saturday night, as upper level flow
continues from the southwest the entire weekend.
Rainfall amounts will range from 0.15 to 0.40, with the better
amounts occurring over south central Missouri.
A cold front will shift through southern Missouri Saturday,
bringing a Canadian air mass with it.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Dry weather and seasonal temperatures are expected next work week.
Upper flow will be fast and zonal, as northerly trajectories
continue at the surface.
Moisture over the Gulf of Mexico should remain suppressed near coastal
areas under this pattern, giving confidence to an extended period
of dry weather.
Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate the approach of a vigorous storm
system late in the week toward next Friday. Given the storm
track from a perfect prog stand point, the Ozarks would receive
more rain than anything. Chances for severe storms would occur in
the deep south, as heavy snow would be favored over the corn belt.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014
Challenging forecast over the next 24 hours. Moisture on the rise
across the area and this will lead to the development, expansion
and lowering of stratus this afternoon into this evening. Just
starting to see signs of high end MVFR/low end VFR developing to
the southwest of the TAF sites, and this should continue to spread
northeastward. Timing is still a bit of a mess so have covered
onset with TEMPO groups. By late this afternoon and this evening,
stratus will be entrenched and lowering, eventually to IFR. Light
rain showers and drizzle will develop with the lowering cloud
bases as southerly winds continue. Potential for LIFR exists where
drizzle is heaviest. Cold front will enter from the northwest
late tonight into Saturday. IFR/low end MVFR will persist through
the end of the TAF cycle.