Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 292046
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
346 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

...Nice Weather Tuesday, then Unsettled Weather heading into the
Holiday Weekend...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

Overall, not a bad start to the work week across the Missouri
Ozarks and far southeast Kansas. Upper level northwest flow should
continue through the period. Temperatures are slightly below
average, humidity is manageable and skies are clear, minus a few
fair wx CU. That being said, a mid level vort upstream is moving
down the eastern side of an upper level Ridge across the western
states. This might be enough to spark an isolated shower or
T`storm this evening, however, coverage and intensity will not be
that great.

Tomorrow will be similar to today...however, there will be an
uptick in POPs along with a higher coverage of T`storms Tuesday
evening and beyond.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

Rain/storm chances increase mid to late week. Several vort lobes
will move SE down the eastern side of the western ridge each day.
With each wave, MCS potential will increase, especially when
nocturnal jet initiates. A higher concentration of upper level
energy will lead to an increase likelihood of rain and storms
Friday through Sunday. Don`t think Independence Day will be a
complete washout, however, with multiple rounds of rainfall
expected, some hydro concerns do exist given soil moisture and
elevated river/stream levels. Severe looks to be marginal at this
point, however, enough instability and shear will be present for
at least a conditional severe risk with Gusty Winds being the
primary concern.

Looking beyond the upcoming holiday weekend, it looks like the
western high will migrate eastward. Temperatures will likely
increase and become more noticeably warm compared to what we have
experienced as of late.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

We expect VFR conditions at all southwest MO airports for the next
24 hours as a relatively dry air mass spreads southward across the
Ozarks. Winds will remain northwesterly through the afternoon and
evening before gradually backing to southwest Tuesday morning.
There may be a rogue shower or storm over the region later this
afternoon as a weak disturbance drops southeastward from Iowa, but
think the better chances will be east of Springfield from 22Z -
03Z.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Frye
LONG TERM...Frye
AVIATION...Terry







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