Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 191154

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
654 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

...12z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

A sfc front extends from the western Great Lakes to northern KS
and another upstream sfc low is along the eastern CO/western KS
border. South-southwest winds will help boost temperatures into
the 80s for most locations this afternoon. We might get close to
some daily max temperature records at KVIH and KUNO.

The upstream sfc wave will move across southern Neb and IA
tonight with a low amplitude shortwave. The trailing front will
begin to move southeast as the sfc low pulls off to to the east.
Showers/tstms will move into the nw cwfa by 06z-09z/1am-3am with
the leading edge reaching close to a Osage Beach-Springfield-
Cassville line by 12z/7am Thu (high res NAM timing). A couple of
stronger storms may be possible early on, but by this time
instability is expected to be fairly limited.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

The main concern for this time frame will heavy rain/flood
potential late Thu night-Fri-Sat. Some severe storm potential is
there depending on how/where a west-east frontal boundary sets up

Thu: The front will continue to move south through the area
Thursday with continued chances for showers/thunderstorms area wide
at one time or another. Daytime heating will help boost
cape/instability during the day Thursday with 18z-21z mlcapes
1000-1300 j/kg in spots. Shear is sufficient for organized
storms. A veered sfc wind will limited storm potential to
hail/winds. Depending on which guidance you choose the timing for
stronger storms in our area might be noon(ish) to mid afternoon
before the front pushes south and east of the cwfa. The SPC
marginal risk covers the area well.

Thu night-Fri-Sat: There is good agreement on general large
scale/synoptic scale features during this time. The front will
stall south of the area over OK/AR Thu night as a shortwave/upper
level jet digs southeast through the southern Rockies. A slow
moving upper level closed low develops near the CO/KS/OK Panhandle
region by midday Fri with multiple lead impulses ahead of the
main low. Increasingly more numerous and heavier showers will
begin to develop late Thu night and continue Fri as waves of
showers move through with the small scale upper level
disturbances. Periods of heavy showers will continue Fri-Fri
night-early Sat until the upper low moves overhead on Sat. Blended
guidance utilized by our fcst database shows a solid 2-4 inch
storm total rainfall across the area with highest amounts over
southeast KS and the sw corner of MO. WPC guidance is about an
inch or two higher higher more or less. The bottom line is that
this type of rainfall over a large area will produce widespread
flooding as early as late Thu night, but certainly Fri and through
the weekend. Creeks, rivers, low water crossings, poor drainage
and urban areas will all be vulnerable to flooding.

On paper, the severe storm risk looks minimal day 3/Fri, but will
have to watch where the sfc front to our south sets up.

Sunday-Tue: Looks quiet/dry. The upper low moves off. Sfc high
pressure moves in Sunday and then shifts east with south winds
and a warming trend Mon-Tue.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 654 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

With the exception of BBG this morning, think VFR conditions can
be anticipated for much of this forecast cycle. Winds will
increase later this morning as our next weather system takes shape
across the plains. Winds will be southerly and may gust over
20kts at times. LLWS will also be a concern late tonight for the
JLN terminal as the low level jet beings to intensify.

We should remain dry, however, by the end of the forecast period
convection may begin closing in on the JLN terminal. Left precip
out for now, however, it may be added later as confidence


Issued at 219 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Record high temperatures for the date today 4/19:

Springfield89 1987
Joplin 93 1987
Rolla-Vichy 86 2011, 1966
West Plains 85 2011, 1987




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