Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 080512

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1112 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 0302 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

No big changes from the previous forecast for this period. A
prefrontal trough has veered winds to the west and wnw this
afternoon with temperatures leveling off in the lower-middle 50s.
Gusty winds are not too out of hand, and should actually decrease
a bit this evening, at least for a few hours.

Snow flurries and snow showers will become an increasing concern
late tonight. Simulated vertical temperature, moisture, and wind
profiles show a fairly deep mixed layer (and some low level
instability) to help mix down stronger wind gusts Monday. Wind
blown snow flurries/showers may produce some localized travel
hazards. High res models keep the best chances for snow showers
over the northeast half of the cwfa with decreasing chances west
and south of KSGF.

Bottom line for impacts: It`s going to get much colder and windy
late tonight and Monday. A wind advisory is out for Monday for
the western portion of the cwfa with 40 to 45 mph gusts expected
(but it will be blustery and windy even outside the advisory as
well). Where snow showers are a bit more persistent, some minor
accumulation is expected up to a half inch over central MO.
Amounts will be variable and will need to watch trends for impacts
on roads/travel late tonight and Monday. Wind chills will drop
into the single digits Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 0302 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

The main changes here were to drop temperatures a bit through
Midweek. A very dry Canadian air mass will settle into the eastern
U.S., then finally move off to the east late in the work week
with a warming trend. The high amplitude northwest upper level
flow pattern will modify a bit as the week goes on. Global models
bring a shortwave into the central Plains by late Day 7/Sunday
with some light rain and/or mix/snow possible. Will fine tune the
forecast timing and precip type with time. Still a long way to
go. Confidence in timing and precip impacts is low at this point.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1108 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

Cold front pushed through during the past hour at SGF and
northwest winds kicked up into the 20 to 30 kt range. Strong
pressure gradient over the area will remain in place through the
night and much of Monday driving in the colder air mass. A few
snow showers will be possible periodically during the day Monday.
Have gone mostly with VFR ceilings, but could see some MVFR
ceilings during the afternoon Monday. Winds will however be the
main aviation hazard through the period and will likely see gusts
over 30kts at times, especially during the day Monday.


Issued at 0302 PM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

Winds will increase tonight and become quite strong Monday. The
lack of recent precipitation has made dormant fuels and even
forest litter fuels quite dry. RH will not be close to Red Flag
criteria Monday, but fire spread will be a concern if a natural
cover fire can get going.

There will be continued fire weather concerns Tuesday with very
low dew points and daytime RH values with continued gusty
northwest winds. Winds are expected to moderate by Wednesday but
the RH will continue to be unusually low in the afternoon.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for MOZ055-066>068-

KS...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ073-097-101.



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