Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 290840
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
340 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

An upper level ridge of high pressure will spread east across the
region today resulting in dry weather and mostly sunny skies.
Persistence will continue to be the way to go for temperatures
with highs once again getting into the 81-84 degree range.

Little change is expected for tonight with mostly clear skies
continuing. Winds will increase just a bit out of the southeast
across western Missouri which will result in slightly warmer
overnight lows. Lows tonight will range from the middle 50s across
the eastern Ozarks to the lower 60s along the I-49 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

As we head into Tuesday, an upper level trough of low pressure
will deepen over the western U.S. with a lead short wave trough
ejecting northeast across the northern Plains. About the only
impact we will see across our neck of the woods will be a slow
increase in southerly winds.

A diffluent southwesterly flow aloft will then overspread the
region from Tuesday night into Wednesday. As this happens,
surface low pressure will slowly organize across the
Oklahoma/Texas panhandles. We will also see a baroclinic
zone/front begin to sharpen up and extend northeast from that low
into the Corn Belt region. A low level jet stream impinging on
that baroclinic zone should promote shower and thunderstorm
development Tuesday night across central and eastern
Kansas...extending southward along the I-35 corridor into
Oklahoma. Some of this activity may creep into west-central
Missouri as we approach daybreak on Wednesday.

Shower and thunderstorm location and coverage then becomes more
questionable for Wednesday as Wednesday night as that front
continues to sharpen up ahead of what will then be an ejecting
surface low. The 00 UTC suite of models paint a fairly consistent
picture with this front setting up shop from northwestern Oklahoma
into northeastern Missouri from later Wednesday into Wednesday
night. While global models (GFS/EC/GEM) all paint quite a bit of
QPF in the warm sector of this storm system, our current mode of
thinking is that most of the precipitation will occur closer
to...and especially north of the front. We therefore have a
considerable gradient to PoPs as you go from northwest to
southeast across the Ozarks.

Global models then remain consistent in bringing the main upper
level trough axis out across the central U.S. from Thursday into
Thursday night. This will give the entire area its best shot at
showers and thunderstorms as that frontal boundary sweeps across
the region. Severe thunderstorm potential still remains somewhat
of a question mark out that far. The overall structure and track
of this system warrants at least a limited risk for severe storms
from later Wednesday into Thursday given what should be sufficient
deep layer shear and at least marginal instability. Severe
potential will become much better understood as the midweek period
approaches.

High pressure will then slowly build into the Ozarks behind this
departing system from Friday into next weekend. This will result
in dry conditions and temperatures dropping back to slightly below
normal values.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

Little change is expected across the Ozarks region over the next
24 hours as an upper level ridge slides over the area from the
plains. Some light fog will impact area terminals with mvfr
visibilities after 08z through sunrise.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Hatch




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