Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 211644
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1144 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

A cold front moved through the area on Saturday. Cooler and drier
conditions are expected to round out the weekend. The next system
will move through the area late Monday through midweek. This will
increase rain chances for that timeframe. A ridge will then move
back into our region by Thursday. Before it does, below average
temperatures can be expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Evening)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

It is noticeably cooler this morning behind the frontal boundary
that moved through the forecast area yesterday. Although skies
cleared overnight, low level northwesterly flow was just enough to
keep temperatures from dropping off as they could have if we had
calmed. This also should keep an otherwise foggy morning from
developing.

After a very wet and stormy week last week, today will be
fabulous. Mild temps, generally light low level flow, and of
course much drier conditions expected. A highly amplified trough
will remain over the region through the short term, which should
keep temperatures below average for late May. Surface flow will
shift to a more southerly direction on Monday, which is expected
to bring warmer and more moist air back into the region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through next weekend)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

A Canadian frontal boundary is forecast to drop southward toward
the region early to midweek next week. Rain chances will begin to
increase as the front and parent upper level wave moves over the
region and around the primary long wave situated across the
eastern one-third of the nation. Instability with this wave looks
very limited as quality low level moisture simply doesn`t have
enough time to move back into the region.

Temperatures behind the front will be relatively cool with daytime
highs midweek only warming into the 60s and overnight lows
dropping off into the lower 40s. Eventually, an upper level ridge
builds into the area by Thursday as pattern begins to evolve.
This paints a bit warmer picture through late week.

The upper level pattern will shift back to a more unsettled
southwesterly flow again by next weekend. Globals indicate several
subtle upper level disturbances progressing through the flow. At
the surface, a frontal boundary is forecast to set up parallel to
the upper level flow. Guidance is a little unclear on exactly
where this boundary sets up, however, given upper level
disturbances rounds of convection appear to be possible off and
on at least to start the Memorial Day weekend. Severity of
convection is still in question as the globals slightly differ a
bit with timing, location, and specifics related to jet dynamics.
These trends will need to be monitored as we continue through the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

Surface high pressure will drift over the area during the forecast
period with a dry air mass in place. This will provide the region
with a light wind and clear sky.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frye
SHORT TERM...Frye
LONG TERM...Frye
AVIATION...Lindenberg



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