Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 182016
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
216 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 215 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Gusty winds were ocurring today across the area, especially along
the plateau near Springfield where near wind advisory criteria has
been reached. An upper level trough was developing in the western
U.S. A surface front was stretching from a low in central MN into
eastern Colorado this afternoon with a tight pressure gradient
ahead of the low across our region.

This pattern shift to a main trough out west and strong ridge off
the east coast will provide our region with some active weather
over the next 7 to 10 days. Wind, thunderstorms, heavy rain,
possible flooding, sleet and freezing rain will all be in our
upcoming forecast. Pinpointing the heaviest axis of rainfall,
critical surface temperatures for duration of freezing rain and
the amount of ice will all be the forecast issues this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Winds have been fairly strong today along the plateau near
Springfield with some gusts over 40 mph earlier. Lesser wind
speeds, but still gusty have occurred outside of the Springfield
area. Southwest flow aloft and a low level warm advection pattern
will lend to some showers spreading into the area tonight. There
will be some instability tonight into Monday as well and so we
will maintain our chance of embedded thunderstorms with the
showers. The overall pattern will not change much through Monday
and we should see an increase in moisture content across the area
with PW values increasing to around 1.40-1.60" range. Showers and
embedded thunderstorms will become more numerous in coverage,
however the better chances for heavy rain over the area will not
arrive until Monday night/Tuesday. The pressure gradient will
remain tighth across the area on Monday and we should once again
see some fairly gusty winds throughout the CWA.



.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 215 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

The cold front will begin to sharpen up to our northwest on Monday
night and especially on Tuesday. There continues to be heavy rain
signals with widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms ahead
of the approaching front. Models are in decent agreement with
heavy rain across the area, but have some differences with the
the placement of the axis of heaviest rainfall and with the timing
of the below freezing temperatures which will have an impact on
the timing of freezing rain across the area.

The colder air mass will be fairly shallow, so for areas which
drop below freezing the precipitation type will likely be freezing
rainfall from the Tuesday night through Wednesday night time
period. At this time, our axis of the most freezing rain will be
along the I-44 corridor where up to 0.20" of ice will be possible.
These ice accumulations will likely change over the next several
forecast periods as newer model data comes in and the surface
temperatures along with qpf can be fine tuned.

After a brief respite from the heavy rain and winter weather
during the day on Thursday, the next wave of showers and embedded
thunder will move in on Thursday night and continue into Saturday.
Model QPF are averaging from 2 to 6 inches of QPF (northwest to
southeast) across the area through the forecast period. Despite
the moderate to severe drought across portions of our area, the
amount of heavy rain forecast will probably bring some flooding to
the region during the course of the next 7 days.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

VFR conditions expected for the afternoon and early evening with
just some high clouds moving through. Gusty south winds will
continue Today with a few 40kt surface gusts possible, especially
at SGF. Clouds will thicken tonight and ceilings will drop to MVFR
and potentially IFR by tomorrow morning with rain moving in. There
will be potential for an isolated thunderstorm however confidence
is too low to put into TAFs. Low level wind shear is likely
overnight at all TAF sites.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ066-067-077>079-
     088>090-094.

KS...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Burchfield



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