Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 272018

318 PM CDT Wed May 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Fairly quiet weather is occurring early/mid afternoon over the
cwfa. Cumulus field is popping in weak sfc convergence south of a
sfc front over the northern cwfa. High res guidance (throwing out
the NAM with poor handing of sfc dew points) develops some isold-
sct convection this afternoon in the area of best sfc moisture
convergence over far southern MO/se KS. By and large however, weak
shortwave ridging is helping to suppress widespread convection
despite some decent instability. Seeing some better updrafts over
northern AR, so will need to watch our area while we still have
the sfc heating/instability.

We will see a transition back to a familiar pattern as a longwave
upper trough moves into the Rockies and High Plains Thu/Thu night
and sw flow aloft becomes reestablished over the area. We should
see better chances for diurnally driven showers/tstms Thursday
with deeper moisture expected (but weaker instability), but the
bulk of more widespread rain is expected to remain off to the

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

The aforementioned upper level trough will weaken as it moves east
through the Plains Fri/Sat. Small scale ripples in the sw flow and
then eventually convergence along the approaching relatively
diffuse sfc trough will increase rain chances Fri/Sat. Progged
synoptic forcing is fairly weak, but overall better moisture and
the potential for more efficient rain producing convection will
give us better overall chances for precip. Two-three day rainfall
totals will again mount over time, but at least for now we are a
bit too far out for any hydro watch related headlines, but
guidance trends will need to be watched.

It still looks like a period of drier weather early next week as
sfc high pressure noses south from the Midwest. A weakness/upper
level cutoff is expected to meander nearby over the mid/lower MS
Vly which may kick off some spotty diurnally driven convection,
but overall the pattern does look drier through Wed/Day 7.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

After morning storms, clouds have decreased across the region this
afternoon. Generally, VFR conditions expected through much of the
afternoon, evening, and overnight. That being said, we cannot rule
out a stray shower or thunderstorm, especially closer to the BBG
and SGF terminals.

Confidence in AM fog potential is left unchanged since the last
update. Decided to indicate some threat in the forecast, however,
cloud cover trends and precip this evening will likely influence
AM VIS forecasts.




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