Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 050512

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1212 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 0316 PM CDT SUN OCT 04 2015

Low level stratus deck is in place across the much of the
forecast area except for extreme southeastern Kansas and
southwestern Missouri where skies are sunny. The stratus deck is
starting to thin some across south central Missouri and on the
western edge of the clouds. As a result some breaks in the clouds
will be possible late this afternoon in these locations.

Once the sun sets the clouds are expected to continue to build
west into southeastern Kansas, but fewer clouds will likely occur
across south central Missouri overnight.

The region is currently located between two upper level lows, one
across the southeastern U.S. and the other across the southwestern
U.S. The upper level low across the southeast will kick off to the
east early this week, as the upper level low across the southwest
very slowly pushes to the southeast through mid week. As a result
a southwest flow pattern aloft will develop over the region
resulting in a warming trend for the first half of the week. Highs
in the low to mid 70s are expected Monday with highs warming into
the lower 80s Wednesday and Thursday. The dry weather pattern will
continue as no rain is expected through Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 0316 PM CDT SUN OCT 04 2015

The upper level low will continue to slowly spread into Texas by
late this week. An upper level shortwave trough will spread out of
the Pacific northwest and across the central U.S. late in the
week. A cold front will move through the area Thursday into
Friday with cooler conditions occurring Friday into next weekend.

The front will also bring chances for showers and thunderstorms to
the area. Moisture will be somewhat limited so any rain will be
associated with the forcing of the front and shortwave trough.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT SUN OCT 04 2015

Confidence is high that IFR ceilings will impact portions of
southern Missouri overnight. Ceilings will slowly build down
through sunrise which will result in Springfield and Branson
falling into the IFR category. Ceilings at Joplin will be slightly
higher, but still may approach IFR. We are also expecting some
light fog to develop late tonight.

Ceilings will then slowly improve throughout the day on Monday.
While most of the day should feature MVFR ceilings, late afternoon
breaks are expected with an eventual return to VFR possible by
sunset. If skies can remain partly cloudy into Monday evening,
that will likely set the stage for fog later Monday night.

Winds through Monday evening will remain light out of the north to


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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