Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
000
FXUS63 KSGF 132036
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
336 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms
late this afternoon into this evening, mainly across central
Missouri. Hail up to the size of golf balls and damaging wind
gusts up to 60 mph are possible.
- Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of 5) for severe storms Thursday
afternoon into early Thursday night. Hail up to the size of
baseballs and damaging wind gusts up to 60-70 mph are
possible. There is also a low chance for a tornado or two. The
greatest threat is along and south of I-44.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
Attention in the short term is with severe weather potential
this afternoon/evening and again Thursday afternoon into early
Thursday night.
A warm front is across central Missouri where moisture is
increasing. Some convection has started to initiate in this
area in an environment with around 2,000 J/kg of SBCAPE and
30-40 kts of effective shear. Over the next few hours, an
increase to around 3,000 J/kg of SBCAPE and 35-45 kts of shear
is expected. Wind profiles are supportive of supercells, which
supports large hail to the size of golf balls and 60 mph winds.
Depending on exactly where storms develop, they may not be over
the area very long as steady movement to the northeast is
expected.
Plenty of convection is expected north of I-70 this evening and
tonight, which may result in outflow pushing south into the area
overnight into early Thursday morning. Lots of uncertainty with
this, but even if convection impacts the forecast area, storms
should be below severe limited.
For Thursday, a cold front will move NW to SE through the area
in the evening to early overnight hours Thursday night. Ahead of
the front, models shows the cap weakening and convection
initiating around the early afternoon time frame and persisting
into the early evening hours (perhaps 6 PM or so). Primary area
of concern for this is along/S of I-44. SBCAPE of 2,500-3,500
J/kg and strong deep layer shear of 40-50 kts will support
severe storms. Splitting supercells are expected given a nearly
unidirectional shear profile, which will enhance the already
substantial hail threat in left moving cells. As a result, we
increased the hail size to baseballs in our messaging. Damaging
wind gusts of 60-70 mph are possible. Low level wind fields are
not supportive of a substantial tornado threat, but a tornado or
two will be possible where ideal boundary interaction occurs.
Additional storms are expected to form along the cold front over
the western portions of the area Thursday evening. 60 mph winds
are the primary concern with these storms as they move southeast
through the area. Severe concerns should wrap up around midnight
Thursday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
With attention on the short term and no actionable targets of
opportunity, no changes were made to the NBM initialization in
the long term. We could see some elevated fire weather concerns
this weekend into early next
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
Gusty southerly winds will continue through the short term with
LLWS also expected late tonight into early Thursday morning.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop on Thursday afternoon.
Some of the storms may be severe with hail up to the size of
baseballs. The greatest hail risk will be at KBBG and KSGF.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus