Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 230752

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
252 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

The Ozarks was positioned between the residual circulation of
Tropical Storm Cindy and an approaching frontal boundary to the
northwest. Other than a couple of sprinkles in Oregon County, most
of the Ozarks Region remained dry overnight. Temperatures were
generally in the 70s within high humidity.

For today, the cold front will surge across the region bringing
showers and thunderstorms. There is an instability - shear
combination in southwest Missouri for a marginal risk for
organized thunderstorms. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary
risk with the strongest storms. The window for severe storms will
occur between noon and 3pm. Otherwise the severe threat will shift
into Arkansas during the late afternoon and early evening hours.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)

Beyond this evening, the forecast appears to be quiet for the next
several days. Northwest flow will set up across the nations
midsection, bringing a dry continental airmass to the Ozarks. This
will keep Gulf moisture at bay, as temperatures stay cooler than
normal for late June.

The next signal for rain chances occurs Monday morning as a weak
baroclinic zone sets up across southwest Missouri. We could see
some weak convection along this feature through Monday.

We finally get into some zonal flow Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Weak shortwave troughs pass through the area, possibly sparking
off a few showers.

There are no indications of a summertime high pressure system
to build over the Ozarks anytime soon. Therefore temperatures in
the 80s and lower 90s are expected.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

The remnants of a tropical storm system will continue to move
north across the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. This will
result in lowering ceilings and some light fog potential across
southern Missouri. MVFR will be likely by late tonight across
much of southern Missouri, with IFR likely around Branson.

A cold front will then drop south into southern Missouri on Friday
bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. MVFR
and brief IFR conditions can be expected around storms. Winds will
shift to the northwest and increase behind that front.

VFR is expected to return to the region by Friday evening.




LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.