Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 220809
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
309 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Thursday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A sfc ridge axis has passed east of the area with light winds from
the e-ese overnight. Looks like a pretty quiet day weather wise
with continued pleasant autumn conditions.

A shortwave over the Rockies will move into the eastern
Plains/Corn Belt region by 12z Thu. Moisture return ahead of the
system is sparse right up until the shortwave passage Thursday
morning, so deeper moisture is really not present very long while
stronger lift is present. Expect just some light and/or brief
precip, with the best overall chances and amounts over the western
and northern cwfa.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A high amplitude and somewhat progressive mid level flow pattern
will continue over the CONUS late in the week with a large upper
ridge moving from the Rockies into the Plains Fri-Sunday with
unseasonably warm temperatures. High temperatures well up into the
70s and some 80s seem like a good bet for a few days Fri-Mon.

Medium range guidance in general brings a shortwave and associated
sfc front into the region late Mon/Tue. The ECMWF is stronger
versus the GFS and GFS ensembles with this system, but in general
the timing is about the same (GFS just a bit slower and with less
qpf). Carrying the highest rain/tstm chances for Mon night for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday evening. There is a
low potential that MVFR fog could develop late tonight around
Branson. We elected not to include fog in the TAF given the low
confidence and the likelihood that any fog will be very shallow
and patchy. Mid and high level clouds will increase on Wednesday
as an upper level trough moves out into the Plains. Winds will
generally remain light out of the southeast. However there may be
a period of brisk and gusty winds around Springfield during the
mid to late morning hours.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Schaumann
CLIMATE...Lindenberg







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