Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 031554
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1054 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM CDT MON AUG 03 2015

INTERIM FORECAST GRIDDED/PRODUCT UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ADDRESS
SUBTLE CHANGES IN SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS (SKY, TEMPERATURE,
DEWPOINT, WEATHER, ETC...) FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE AN EVOLVING AND SHARPENING THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENT/
BOUNDARY POISED NORTH OF A CEDAR SPRINGS TO EMINENCE MISSOURI LINE
FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE ZONE OF FASTER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
IN OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI. THE ZONE OF INSTABILITY AND
OVERTURNING OF THETA-E AIR WILL BE TIGHT ACROSS THIS AREA AND WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION
(THUNDERSTORMS) GIVEN THE CAPPING/DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AS YOU MOVE
FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO MISSOURI.

CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL ON POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT IN THIS GRADIENT
ZONE, SO DID A 20-50% BLEND WITH CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE
EXPLICIT HRRR AND CONSOLIDATED MODEL BLENDS. THIS STILL KEEPS HEAT
INDEX VALUES AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN LINE WITH CURRENT
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE OVERALL WEATHER IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT TODAY AND BECOME MORE
ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS REGION THIS WEEK. WE
WILL SEE ONE MORE VERY WARM DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 90S. HUMIDITY VALUES AND DEW POINTS ARE NOT
EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH SO THE HEAT INDEX THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ABOUT
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES...MAYBE
MIDDLE TO POSSIBLY UPPER 90S.

THERE IS CURRENTLY A WEAKENING COMPLEX OF CONVECTION NEAR THE
KANSAS CITY AREA WHICH IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. HIRES MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS AREA TO FURTHER WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. THIS
COMPLEX COULD LEAVE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSOURI INTO THE EASTERN OZARKS LATER TODAY.

THE HRRR AND THE 4KM WRF HAS BEEN INDICATING THIS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ALONG A FORT SCOTT TO SPRINGFIELD
TO WEST PLAINS LINE AND NORTHWARD. WITH THAT SAID...WILL LEAVE IN
A 20 PERCENT POP FOR THESE AREAS FOR A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AS THE MAIN THREAT. SPC HAS THIS AREA
HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL RISK TODAY FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

A LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND MAY INTERACT WITH
THIS STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE SOMEWHERE LOCATED
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI TONIGHT. THIS LLJ AND
BOUNDARY INTERACTING WILL DEVELOP ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSOURI AREA WITH A MOVEMENT TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN GETS GOING STARTING TUESDAY. THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVES OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS REGION UP AND OVER THE FLAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON TIMING AND MATERIALIZED
INSTABILITY. THE THREAT AGAIN WOULD BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASES LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE OZARKS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIKELY AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THIS WILL BE A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM.

WPC HAS THE AREA ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF I-44 HIGHLIGHTED IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR TUESDAY AND THE ENTIRE AREA
FOR A SLIGHT RISK ON WEDNESDAY. IF TRAINING OF STORMS
OCCUR...THERE WILL BE A LIMITED FLASH FLOODING THREAT ESPECIALLY
FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED OUT AND LINGER IN THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A STOUT LOW LEVEL JET THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ENHANCE
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT NEAR THAT FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI
INTO THE EASTERN OZARKS.

OVERALL AVERAGE RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AND TAPERING OFF
TOWARDS ARKANSAS BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER MID
TO END OF THE WEEK WITH THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES...HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
THE GFS HOTTER AND DRIER FOR THE OZARKS AND THE ECMWF STILL
KEEPING THE "RING OF FIRE" WEATHER PATTERN NEAR CENTRAL MISSOURI
AND THE EASTERN OZARKS. WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE...WILL MAINTAIN
INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS TO VEER
TO THE SW-W WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING...THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL THIS
AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN THE
KSGF/KBBG TERMINALS.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WFO PAH/SMITH
SHORT TERM...GRIFFIN
LONG TERM...GRIFFIN
AVIATION...RUNNELS


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