Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 230447
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1147 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

The tenacious upper level ridge over easter Kansas and the slowly
departing surface high were working to keep the Ozarks under
sunny skies today and will continue to bring pleasant conditions
through this evening. Temperatures were in the middle to upper
70s with some location expected to climb to near 80 degrees.

Southerly winds will begin to pick up slightly overnight and start
to bring Gulf moisture into the region. This will allow for a few
showers or thunderstorms to move across eastern Kansas early
Monday morning and into the midday. A fairly strong cap, and
elevated mixed layer will work to suppress most if not all
convection through the day Monday as temperatures climb into the
lower 80s in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

The forecast for the coming week continues to look messy, with
overall low confidence in the particular timing and coverage of
thunderstorms. Despite daily chances for thunderstorms, it does
not appear that the week will necessarily be a washout, but
instead be characterized by daily rounds of scattered
thunderstorms, with occasional bouts of more organized activity.

With ample instability and shear in place, there will be a
conditional severe weather threat on nearly a daily basis with any
convection that does affect the forecast area. Much of the week
will feature a very unstable airmass-- including very steep mid
level lapse rates--and moderate shear. This would point toward
large hail (perhaps very large) as the most widespread threat.
Wind and tornadoes will also be a possibility.

By Monday night, the CWA looks to be on the eastern edge of a
strongly unstable (though also strongly capped) airmass which
will be in place across the Southern and Central Plains. The LLJ
is expected to overspread a low to mid level theta-e gradient
Monday night/early Tuesday across Central Kansas, with most medium
range model guidance in fair agreement in developing convection
and moving it south into the CWA Tuesday morning. Areas north of
I-44 will be most favored, though the entire area could see some
activity. Somewhat limited instability may keep the severe weather
threat with this activity under relative control, though a few
stronger line segments/bows could potentially yield a wind or
mesovort tornado threat.

A deep EML is expected to continue to advect into the area through
the day Tuesday, which should result in a strengthening cap aloft,
limiting convective chances following any morning activity.

We may see a relative lull in the convective activity Tuesday
night and Wednesday, with strong capping in place, and any surface
features or appreciable upper level support remaining well west of
the area.

By Thursday and Friday, there continues to be a broad signal in
the extended guidance of a more substantial shortwave ejecting
east over the Southern Plains. This feature would result in
increased lift and shear, along with an eastward movement to
synoptic scale surface boundaries, suggesting an increase in
severe weather potential. Of course, much of what happens at the
end of the week will depend on how things evolve day to day before
then; again, confidence in exact timing and coverage of
thunderstorms is quite low.

Once that shortwave lifts north through the area, global models
are in general agreement in maintaining mean troughing over the
West Coast, with upper level ridging building into the nation`s
midsection with time. This would point toward a continuation of
warm and humid conditions through the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Upper ridging was across the area late this evening with light
surface wind and high pressure to our east. Convection fired this
afternoon/evening in the high Plains ahead of a dryline/frontal
system and upper level wave. May see remnant convection towards
morning try to sneak into the western CWA. Not enough confidence
to include in TAFS right now, so will continue with mid/high level
clouds from the convective complex out west overnight and into
Monday. A strong thermal cap will advect into the area on Monday
and should help to suppress convection through the day. Will
maintain VFR conditions through the forecast for all 3 TAF sites.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Lindenberg



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