Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 162251
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
551 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions today through Tuesday. Some
  significant fire weather conditions possible in south central
  Missouri on Monday and again on Tuesday.

- Sub freezing temperatures forecast for the entire area Monday
  morning and most of the area Tuesday morning.

- Rain chances return late Wednesday into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

An upper level trough is currently moving southeast out of the
Northern Plains this afternoon. The trough will push a cold
front south through the region this evening. A shortwave trough
is also moving east across the southern Plains this afternoon.
An area of rain is occurring across central Oklahoma this
afternoon ahead of the shortwave. A drier air mass is in place
across the area. As the shortwave trough continues to move east
this evening the area of rain will also move off to the east
across Arkansas. The drier air mass will limit rain across the
area but cannot rule out a few sprinkles for far southern
Missouri this evening but most locations will remain dry.

Ahead of the front, temperatures have warmed into the 60s with
humidity values in the 30 to 40% currently this afternoon.
Minimum humidity values will continue to drop into the 25 to
35% range this afternoon. Westerly winds around 10 mph with
gusts up to 15 to 20 mph will occur at times today. Breezy
winds combined with the dry conditions will lead to elevated
fire weather conditions this afternoon.

Cooler conditions will occur on Sunday as highs warm into 50s. A
drier air mass will remain over the area as afternoon humidity
values will again drop to around 25 to 35 percent again Sunday
afternoon. Northerly winds around 15 mph with gusts up to 20 to
35 mph will occur Sunday afternoon. The gusty winds and drier
conditions will again lead to elevated fire weather conditions
across the region on Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

A secondary upper level trough and area of surface high
pressure will move south through the region Sunday night into
Monday. This trough will bring a colder and drier air mass into
the region Sunday night into Monday night. Lows Sunday night
into Monday morning will drop into the middle to upper 20s as
highs warm into the middle to upper 40s Monday afternoon. Lows
in the upper 20s to lower 30s will occur Tuesday morning. A
very dry air mass will also move into the area on Monday as
afternoon humidity values drop into the 20 to 30 percent range.
Northerly winds will start to increase Monday afternoon as the
surface high pressure moves off to the south. Northerly winds of
15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph will occur and will lead
to elevated to locally significant fire weather risk Monday
afternoon.

Temperatures will start to warm back into the 60s on Tuesday
and Wednesday. West to southwesterly winds will increase on
Tuesday as winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 to 35 mph
will occur. Afternoon humidity values will drop into the 25 to
35 percent range and will again lead to elevated to locally
significant fire weather risk Tuesday afternoon.

The ensemble model members then show an upper level trough
moving through the region during the middle to end of the week.
There are difference in the models on the speed and timing of
this feature. Showers and a few storms will be possible with the
trough Wednesday into Friday but will not rain the entire period
and the overall better chances will be south of the area where
the better moisture return will be.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 548 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

No impactful weather or changes to VFR conditions expected
through the TAF period. A weak, dry cold front will move through
the region tonight, bringing some low-impact cloud cover and
switching the light winds to a more northerly direction in its
wake. Winds will become more westerly through much of Sunday,
with skies becoming clear by the end of the day.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Camden


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