Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 210500
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1200 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2014

...06Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A cold front will push southward across the area tonight as a
potent shortwave trough swings across the Great Lakes region. This
front will generate isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
as it pushes into the Ozarks later tonight. Activity developing
across northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas could make into
central Missouri by early evening with convection making it into
far southern Missouri overnight. Organized severe weather is not
expected but a few stronger storms will be possible mainly this
evening across central Missouri before instability wanes with
sunset.

The cold front will push south into Arkansas early Sunday morning
bringing an end to any chance of convection. A dry and cooler
airmass will advect into the Ozarks Sunday as a sprawling area of
surface high pressure builds southward into the central U.S.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

The cooler weather will persist into early next week as the large
high pressure area shifts eastward. The upper ridge will rebuild
over the region next week resulting in a warming trend by the
middle and later part of the week. Medium range models continue
to show an upper level trough pushing into this ridge then weaken.
Will have to monitor this weakness in the ridge that could
generate a few showers the middle of next week.

However, overall it looks to be an extended period of dry and
seasonably mild weather as we head into the first week of fall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A cold front is making VERY slow progress south toward the area
early this morning. Have pushed back frontal timing by several
hours with this TAF update. Will maintain mention of VCTS during
the pre-dawn hours, though coverage may end up being rather sparse.
Winds will eventually become northerly mid to late morning as the
front passes.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Boxell





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