Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 100901
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
401 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

Elevated convection developed/blossomed over central NEB/KS late
yesterday evening and overnight as a strengthening low level jet
increased lift ahead of subtle shortwave moving southeast into that
area. Have seem some radar reflectivity returns as far east as
eastern KS, but high based ceilings and low level dry air have
limited precip amounts there, if any has occurred at all.
Otherwise, it was a quiet night over the cwfa.

Could see some remnant elevated convection get into far western
sections of the cwfa this morning, but guidance trends don`t
support much in the way of measurable rain chances at this point.
More robust convection out over central Kansas may try to edge in
later in the day, but a continued lack of deep moisture fetch will
make that tough.

Convective redevelopment will likely occur again tonight farther
to the east and northeast, but an expanding mid level ridge may
make convective development as far south as central MO difficult.
Will still carry some small pops for areas north of KSGF, but
better chances for showers/thunderstorms will be well to the north
over the Corn Belt.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

Mid level warming will continue to push organized convection to the
north of the area Friday and Saturday. Isolated diurnal pulse
convection is a slight possibility, but that will be the exception
rather than the rule. We will see a warming trend Fri and Sat.
With fairly dry air and southwest winds, mid 90s for highs
Saturday look like a fair bet. Went pretty close to MOS guidance
for this time frame.

A pretty impressive pattern change will begin to make itself felt
just a bit on Sunday as a strong closed upper level low moves
southeast to an area between Hudson Bay and the western Great
Lakes by Sunday. A shortwave swinging southeast in the resultant
nw upper level flow will help push an initially modest cold front
into the area Sunday. With a continued dry low level west-wsw sfc and
low level flow, rain chances don`t look too good this far to the
west with better chances over the OH Vly and points northeast. It
looks like one more hot day Sunday before a cooling trend begins.

Monday-Monday night may be the best chances for rain as a stronger
cold front pushes south into the area as the upper low
swings/dumbbells south into the Great Lakes. The latest consensus
of medium range guidance pushes cold/cool air far enough south
that precip chances past Monday night don`t seem to be a big
concern.

Tuesday and Wednesday: A general consensus is that 850mb
temperatures will be anomalously cool, 9-12 deg C. This would
correspond to highs in the 70s for the most part. Lows in the 50s
in many/most areas.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

Only minor changes to the forecast with this TAF issuance.
Overall, still expecting mainly VFR conditions. The lone exception
being the JLN aerodrome where a few showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm will be possible after 10 UTC. Confidence in this
still isn`t high, so have transitioned the PROB30 group to a VCSH
and will update as needed. Otherwise, high and some mid level
cloud cover will increase with time with winds becoming
southeasterly.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Gagan






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