Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 221928
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
228 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Another day with abundant sunshine across the area with an upper
level ridge axis centered across the Mississippi valley region.
Surface ridge has shifted off to the east and we saw a return to a
southeast wind last night and today across the area. Temperatures
were ranging from the low 60s east to low 70s west.

Forecast will focus on shower/thunderstorm chances late tonight
into Thursday, the significant warm up for Friday through the
weekend, and the chance of showers and thunderstorms returning for
Monday-Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper level ridge currently in place over the area will be quick
to exit to the east tonight with shortwave energy pushing across
the area late tonight into Thursday. The shortwave will bring
increased cloud cover and a chance of showers/isolated thunder,
mainly to the western CWA with decreasing moisture availability as
you head further east. There will be a lower temperature range
tonight/Thursday than we have seen the past couple of days with
increasing cloud cover as the shortwave moves in. The coolest
readings will be over the eastern CWA which will see the onset of
the cloud cover the latest and will hold on to the cloud cover the
longest on Thursday. This won`t be a big rainmaker, even for the
western CWA where the higher pops exist as this will be a quick
moving system and moisture content looks to be lacking.
Instability looks to be enough to support some isolated thunder in
the far western CWA, but no severe storms are expected.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Rain chances will come to an end by Thursday night and another
upper level ridge will begin to build back into the area from the
west. This ridge will be more amplified and will linger a bit
longer across the area from Friday through the weekend, also
advecting in some low level fairly warm air. Looks like the
extended init tools may be slightly cool Saturday and Sunday and
have adjusted slightly higher. Have continued to include current
record highs for the period Friday-Sunday in the climate section
below as a reference, but it appears we are still going to be shy
of the records at this point.

Ridge will begin to shift off to the east Sunday night and Monday
with a return to southwest flow aloft and a good Gulf moisture
feed into the area in the lower levels ahead of the next trough.
This will set up a much better opportunity for widespread
showers/thunderstorms heading into Monday night/Tuesday. New ECMWF
bring main upper level energy into the area Tuesday night and
continues convective precipitation chances then as well, while GFS
pushes this system through more progressively during the day
Tuesday. For now will leave things dry for Tuesday, but we may
need to start adding pops for Tuesday night if this trend continues.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...Surface high pressure is over
the great lakes region early this afternoon. Behind the high,
south to southeasterly winds are occurring and some scattered
cumulus clouds are spreading east into the area. These cumulus clouds
will dissipated around sunset with just scattered high clouds
over the area this evening.

Overnight into Thursday morning, mid level clouds will increase
from west to east as an upper level disturbance pushes across the
plains and into the region. A few light showers will be possible
around the Joplin area Thursday morning. A very dry airmass is
currently in place across much of the area, and this system will
not pull a lot of moisture into the area. Therefore, the rain
chances will really start to decrease as the system moves east
into the drier air closer to the Springfield and Branson areas.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise
CLIMATE...Lindenberg






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