Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 251122
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
522 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015
...Update to Aviation for 12Z TAFS...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015
Milder temperatures are in store for one more day before the next
Arctic surge arrives late tonight. Southerly winds, considerable
sunshine and a shrinking snowfield over the Ozark Plateau will allow
temperatures to rise into the 40s with some lower and possibly
middle 50s from southeastern Kansas into far west central
The clipper system that has been advertised will slide quickly
southeastward into Missouri this evening and across southern
Missouri into early Thursday morning. Precipitation will arrive to
central Missouri by late evening then spread southeastward. The
best chance for light snowfall will be to the northeast of the
vorticity maxima and diffuse surface low that will push southeast
across the Missouri Ozarks late tonight. Areas of central Missouri
into the eastern Ozarks could see up to an inch of snow with
lesser amounts to the west.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015
Areas of light snow or flurries will linger Thursday morning as
the clipper exits to the southeast. Strong cold air advection will
follow the passage of this system will temperatures falling
through the 20s toward the teens by late afternoon. Lows Thursday
night will fall into single digits and may approach zero across
central Missouri. A steady northerly wind will produce wind chill
values in the single digits below zero and as cold as 10 below
late Thursday night into Friday morning. With 850 MB temperatures
around 15 degrees Celsius below temperatures Friday will struggle
to climb to around 20 degrees.
Models continue to advertise the potential for accumulating wintry
precipitation this weekend. While details in regards to precipitation
type, amounts and timing remain uncertain confidence is increasing
that the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas will see wintry
precipitation this weekend.
The upper pattern will become more zonal as a deep upper level
trough evolves out west. A series of disturbances will eject
northeastward from this trough across the region while a frontal
zone develops underneath the westerly to southwesterly flow aloft.
The first round of precipitation will arrive Saturday and Saturday
night. It appears that this initial round of precipitation will be
primarily in the form of snow as a deep Arctic airmass remains
entrenched. Precipitation types become more uncertain with time as
warm air advection develops over the cold dome. Precipitation may
transition to a wintry mix later Saturday night into Sunday and
Sunday night. Some areas of southern Missouri may even rise above
freezing Sunday. However it is too early to pin down precipitation
types and amounts given the complexity of this system.
For now closely monitor the latest weather information and forecasts
as we approach the weekend.
The unsettled pattern continues into early next with considerable
uncertainty remaining on precipitation types.
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015
For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...Mid level clouds are currently
spreading north into southern Missouri as a storm system tracks
east across the southern plains early this morning. This system
will continue to track east and remain south of the area and no
precipitation will occur with this system, as its only affects on
the area will be the mid level clouds.
Southerly winds will prevail across the TAF sites today and much
of this evening.
A cold front and upper level disturbance will then dive south
across the area late this evening into the overnight hours. Winds
will shift to the northwest and increase and become quite gusty as
an arctic air mass begins to spread into the region. Flurries or light
snow will also be possible early Thursday morning. The better
accumulation chance will be northeast of the TAF sites but light
accumulations of less than one half inch of snow will be possible
early Thursday morning at the TAF sites.