Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 250616
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
116 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

An upper level ridge of high pressure is over the southeastern
U.S. extending into the area. This has allowed a hot and  humid
air mass to spread over the region. Temperatures have warmed into
the upper 80s to the lower 90s with heat index readings in the 95
to 100 degree range this afternoon. These muggy conditions will
continue into early this evening then temperatures will slowly
cool into the lower 70s for overnight lows tonight.

The upper level high has pushed a front across south central
Kansas into northern Missouri. Showers and storms have developed
along the front across northern Kansas and will spread off to the
northeast and not affect the area. Additional storms are expected
to develop across central and south central Kansas late this
afternoon into early this evening. These storms will then track
off to the northeast into northern Missouri this evening into
tonight. Overall the better potential for being affected by this
activity will be to the north and west of the forecast area.
However, the track will be close enough to the area that they southern
edge of this activity may just clip the far northern portions of
the area, generally north of Highway 54. If the storms can make
it into the area there will be a strong to severe risk with hail
to the size of quarters and damaging wind gust the risk.

Thursday overall looks to be fairly similar to that of today, as
a hot and humid air mass remains over the region. Highs in the
upper 80s to the lower 90s with heat index values in the 95 to 100
degree range again across much of the area.

The front will be able to sag slightly farther to the south as the
upper level high sags slightly to the southeast. Additional
thunderstorms are again expected to develop Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night along the front and spread. With the front
moving more to the south and east this will allow the storm track
to move more into the area generally north of I-44. A strong to
severe risk will again occur with the stronger storms Thursday
into Thursday night, with hail and damaging wind gust the severe
risk.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

The front will continue to sag south into the area Thursday night
into Friday, but should not move all the way through the area. The
front will stall across the area and washout if not spread back
to the north into this weekend. Scattered storms will occur at
times Friday through this weekend and into early next week, as
several upper level disturbances track across the region. These
will not be all day rains so a complete washout is not expected.
However, scattered showers and storms are expected to develop each
day when a disturbance tracks through the area.

Slightly cooler temperatures will spread into the area,
but no huge cool down will occur. Highs in the low to upper 80s
can be expected each afternoon from Friday into early next week.
Heat index values in the middle to upper 90s will be possible
across extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwester Missouri
each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 108 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to primarily remain
northwest of the area into Thursday morning with VFR expected.
There will be low level wind shear conditions as a low level jet
stream shifts over the region.

A frontal boundary will then slide into the area on Thursday.
Showers and thunderstorms may develop along this feature, however
coverage of storms remains in question. We have kept storms out of
the TAFs for now, but they may need to be added to future TAF
issuances.

Surface winds into Friday evening will remain out of the south to
southwest and generally below 12 knots.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann



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