Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 161654
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1054 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Upper level ridging will be invoked over the Ozarks today as
strong cyclonic flow persists over the northeastern United States
and upper level low pressure slowly approaches southern Texas.
Brisk and gusty southwest winds will develop at the surface with
strong warm air advection commencing in the low levels of the
atmosphere. We went on the high side of temperature guidance
today with highs warming into the middle to upper 60s. An isolated
70 degree reading is not out of the question back towards I-49.

The gusty winds and low humidities will lead to critical fire
weather conditions today. Please see the Fire Weather Discussion
below for further details.

Winds will decrease a bit tonight, but not enough to go as cool as
most model guidance. We have therefore again gone warm with
temperatures with lows ranging from the upper 30s over the
eastern Ozarks to the lower and middle 40s over western Missouri
and southeastern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Friday will be another breezy and mild day across the region with
warm advection continuing. We have again gone on the warm side of
guidance with highs over most areas reaching the 70 degree mark.

Temperatures may then be slightly cooler on Saturday as that
aforementioned upper level low to our southwest pivots northeast
across the region. This will lead to increased cloud cover and
perhaps a few light showers from late Friday night into Saturday.
Any rainfall will be very light.

A return to temperatures at or above the 70 degree mark is then
expected for Sunday and Monday. Global models continue to
advertise an upper level trough sliding east towards the Ozarks
from late Sunday night through Tuesday. The trend also continues
for this trough to split as it reaches the Mississippi Valley
region. Thus, the best chances for showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms may occur over eastern Kansas and western Missouri.
We have therefore kept PoPs in the 30-50% range given these
uncertainties. Even behind this system, mild temperatures will
continue towards the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1053 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Main aviation hazard will be with some surface gusts up to the 25
to 30 kt range this afternoon and with low level wind shear
overnight at the 3 TAF sites. VFR conditions are expected through
the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A Red Flag Warning has been posted for locations along and north
of a Neosho to Hartville to Rolla, Missouri line.

Southwest winds will increase at the surface and become gusty
from later this morning into this afternoon. Gusts over 30 mph
appear likely, especially over the more open terrain of western
Missouri and southeastern Kansas.

An upper level ridge of high pressure will build into the region
today resulting in much warmer temperatures. High temperatures
will warm into the middle to upper 60s area wide.

Surface observations and sounding data from Oklahoma, northern
Texas, and Arkansas indicate that surface dew points this
afternoon should range from the 23 to 30 degree range. With
temperatures in the 60s, this will result in afternoon humidities
falling into the 20-25% range. We do believe that some locations
could fall into the upper teens over the eastern Ozarks and where
downslope is maximized.

With this being said, we have hoisted the Red Flag Warning for the
entire area that was previously under the Fire Weather Watch. We
decided to include Wright and Texas Counties in the warning. While
winds may be a bit more marginal, this may be where humidities get
the lowest.

We will also see elevated fire weather conditions over much of the
area Friday afternoon due to brisk southwest winds and low
humidities. At this time, we may see just enough of a moisture
increase to preclude fire weather headlines. However, models are
usually too quick to return moisture. Thus, interested parties
should also monitor fire weather forecasts for Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 518 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

We will be in range for more record high temperatures possibly
this weekend.

Record Highs/YearFeb 17th Feb 18thFeb 19th
Springfield 73/191174/194871/2004
Joplin77/191178/198675/2011
West Plains 77/1986 77/198673/1981
Vichy-Rolla73/201172/199170/2004

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>082-088>094.

KS...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Lindenberg
FIRE WEATHER...Schaumann
CLIMATE...Griffin



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