Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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988
FXUS63 KSGF 221725
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1225 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

...18z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Tropical storm "Cindy" was beginning to push onto the Gulf coast
near the TX/LA border. The tropical like airmass was extending
northeast of the low pressure center into the bootheel region of
MO with around 2.0 in. precipitable water values. Precipitation
with this system was making its way into southern AR and northern
MS. A surface frontal system was located well to the north of the
area early this morning across the upper MS valley region into the
northern plains. Both of these features will have an impact on the
upcoming weather today into Friday and will be the main short term
focus with this forecast package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Tropical storm "Cindy" will move inland by morning and will begin
to weaken as it lifts north along the TX/LA border during the day.
Tropical moisture will continue to lift north into the area with
PW values by the end of the day ranging from around 1.5 to 2.25
in. from northwest to southeast across in the CWA respectively.
Convection will be possible throughout the day, mainly across the
southeast 1/2 of the CWA, but the heaviest of the rain today will
be concentrated with the energy from the tropical low further to
the south across AR. The front to the north will drop into central
IA to a southwest KS line.

Tonight, the tropical low will meander more to the northeast with
tropical moisture still over the area. Best energy with the
system will remain south and southeast of the area, with the best
chance at convection in our CWA in the southeast portion across
south central MO. The cold front will begin moving into the
northwest portion of the CWA by daybreak Friday.

On Friday, the front will push through the area, interacting with
the tropical moisture still in place for the best chance area wide
of showers and thunderstorms. By days end, the tropical low will
be pushing into the TN valley and the surface front will have
pushed through the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Convection should come to an end on Friday evening with a much
drier air mass moving in from the north behind the front and in
the wake of the tropical low.

Models have differing solutions with respect to additional
precipitation chances through the extended period as we remain in
a northwest flow regime with generally weak impulses pushing
through via the northwest flow. While there may continue to be
nearly daily chances of precipitation, these don`t appear to be
total washouts across the entire CWA, more scattered in nature to
where most areas will likely remain dry on a daily basis.

Temperatures will likely be cooler than normal until late in the
week as we remain in northwest flow aloft. By the end of next
week, some upper ridging will begin to build into the area and we
should warm back up to near normal readings for the end of June.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Pilots flying in and out of the Missouri Ozarks region can
expected mainly MVFR conditions with a high potential of IFR
ceilings again late tonight into early Friday morning. There is
some potential for LIFR conditions for BBG late tonight but
confidence is not high enough to mention in TAFs at this time.
Light MVFR fog will be possible for SGF and BBB late tonight. A
few VCSH will be around today through this evening. Winds will be
breezy from the south and southeast around 10 knots today and this
evening. A cold front will move into the area Friday morning with
a wind shift to the northwest. Included a PROB30 for scattered
convection near the frontal passage Friday morning for all TAFs.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Griffin



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