Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 162012
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
312 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

GustY winds will continue across the Ozarks into this evening.
After sunset, winds will begin to diminish as the surface
gradient weakens. Overnight temperature us will be a bit warmer
with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s expected.

The low pressure center over western Iowa and associated cold
front extending southwestward across Kansas and the OK/TX
panhandles will shift eastward into the forecast area on Thursday
with mainly post-frontal precipitation developing ahead of the
upper level trough through Thursday evening. Very dry lower
levels will take some time to saturate...so expect precipitation
amounts to remain on the lighter side...averaging around one
tenth of an inch.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Once the main upper trough shifts east of the Ozarks on Thursday
night and Friday...we will see a warming trend and dry conditions
through Saturday as a lee side trough deepens over eastern
Colorado. A surface high will keep Gulf moisture south of our area
through Saturday before shifting east and allowing a decent fetch
of low level moisture to stream northward from the Texas Gulf
Coast on Sunday. The models may be bringing in precipitation a
little fast but think overall moisture availability will be better
with this system. Model soundings show some modest instability so
will include isolated thunder potential for early Sunday through
early Monday.

Another round of upper level ridging commences on Tuesday and
Wednesday with upper level flow becoming more southwesterly by the
end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 110 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Windy surface conditions will be the primary concern for aviators
as surface winds gust to 35-40mph. Winds will begin to diminish
after sunset with no flight impacts expected during the overnight
hours. ceilings and visibilities will remain VFR through the
forecast.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

A Red Flag Warning will remain in effect through 7 pm this
evening for southeastern Kansas into southwestern and central
Missouri.

southerly winds will continue to be 15 to 25 mph gusting to
up to 40 mph at times. This will combined with minimum relative
humidity values ranging from 25 to 35 percent will produce
significant fire weather concerns into early this evening.

After sunset winds will begin to weaken. Areas generally along
and north of I-44 will have the greatest risk for significant fire
weather conditions through 7 pm.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>069-077>080-088>090-093-094-101.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TERRY
LONG TERM...TERRY
AVIATION...Hatch
FIRE WEATHER...Hatch









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