Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 280459
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1159 PM CDT Wed May 27 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Showers and thunderstorms have been locked in over
Douglas...northern Howell and northeast Shannon Counties for the
past few hours along a weak surface front and along the southern
edge of the Ozark Plateau. The heaviest rain has been over Douglas
County and we have a flash flood warning remaining over that area
until 4 am.

To the west...the remnants of severe storms over the central and
southern Plains will weaken as they move eastward toward the MO
border. However expect some of this precip to make it into at
least our western counties before sunrise.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Fairly quiet weather is occurring early/mid afternoon over the
cwfa. Cumulus field is popping in weak sfc convergence south of a
sfc front over the northern cwfa. High res guidance (throwing out
the NAM with poor handing of sfc dew points) develops some isold-
sct convection this afternoon in the area of best sfc moisture
convergence over far southern MO/se KS. By and large however, weak
shortwave ridging is helping to suppress widespread convection
despite some decent instability. Seeing some better updrafts over
northern AR, so will need to watch our area while we still have
the sfc heating/instability.

We will see a transition back to a familiar pattern as a longwave
upper trough moves into the Rockies and High Plains Thu/Thu night
and sw flow aloft becomes reestablished over the area. We should
see better chances for diurnally driven showers/tstms Thursday
with deeper moisture expected (but weaker instability), but the
bulk of more widespread rain is expected to remain off to the
west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

The aforementioned upper level trough will weaken as it moves east
through the Plains Fri/Sat. Small scale ripples in the sw flow and
then eventually convergence along the approaching relatively
diffuse sfc trough will increase rain chances Fri/Sat. Progged
synoptic forcing is fairly weak, but overall better moisture and
the potential for more efficient rain producing convection will
give us better overall chances for precip. Two-three day rainfall
totals will again mount over time, but at least for now we are a
bit too far out for any hydro watch related headlines, but
guidance trends will need to be watched.

It still looks like a period of drier weather early next week as
sfc high pressure noses south from the Midwest. A weakness/upper
level cutoff is expected to meander nearby over the mid/lower MS
Vly which may kick off some spotty diurnally driven convection,
but overall the pattern does look drier through Wed/Day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

The main adjustment to the 06Z tafs will be to account for
decaying complex of storms to the west of our airports during the
overnight and early morning hours. Distance speed tool estimates
the storms reaching the Joplin area around 9-10Z with an hour or
two lag before reaching Springfield and Branson if they can
maintain themselves.

Otherwise will continue the trend of keeping mainly VFR ceilings
with vicinity thunderstorms through the remainder of the forecast
period as we remain in the warm sector ahead of an advancing upper
level trough and deepening surface front.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Terry
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Terry







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