Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 150525

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1225 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Showers and thunderstorms were currently ongoing across
northeastern Kansas and northern Missouri in proximity to the
cold front. This activity is expected to move south this evening
as the cold front makes its way to the southeast and into the
Ozark region late this afternoon into this evening.

Low level moisture, a strong low level jet, frontal lift and some
instability will work to bring the potential for strong to severe
storms, however the timing of the frontal passage for the region
during the overnight hours may act to limit the severe potential.
Still, there is a concern for damaging winds along the front and
associated with and down bursts that may occur. Some isolated hail
to the size of quarters may also be possible with the strongest
storms as the freezing level will be fairly low.

Cool fall high pressure will be filtering into the region behind
the cold front through the day Sunday. Despite mostly sunny skies
afternoon temperatures will struggle to reach the 60 degree mark.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

With cold high pressure over the region, overnight temperatures
will fall into the lower 40s to upper 30s under clear skies.

Sprawling high pressure will then linger over the eastern half of
the country through the end of the week as upper level flow
remains northwesterly. With sunny skies expected through the week
a slow warming trend will occur with high by Friday in the middle
70s. The next chance of rain may come late next weekend or into
the following week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Cold front has pushed through KJLN and will be pushing through
KSGF and KBBG by 09Z with northwest winds gusting to 25 knots or
so. Expect showers and thunderstorms to accompany the front
through the region through at least 12Z. Some post frontal
stratus will likely lower ceilings in the MVFR category with
perhaps some localized IFR at times through 12Z. Flight
conditions will improve by mid to late morning as skies begin to
clear from the west as high pressure begins to build in. Clear
skies and a diminishing northwest winds are expected by late
afternoon and into tonight.




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