Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 191101
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
601 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Fair weather persisted over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were a little chilly this morning,
with readings in the 40s.

For today, a few high level clouds will stream overhead as a weak
upper circulation approaches from the west. No precipitation is
expected with this feature. Look for temperatures to warm into the
middle and upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

The upper pattern becomes more amplified early in the work week.
This will result in strong ridging gradually shifting over the
nation`s mid section. This is a fair weather pattern, that will
bring plenty of sunshine to the Ozarks, with temperatures warming
into the 70s on an afternoon basis through Wednesday.

The next decent chance for rain will occur Thursday. Both the GFS
and the ECMWF suggest weak troughing approaching from the west,
forcing some showers to develop. We have added anywhere from a 20
to 30 percent chance for rain on Thursday`s period. Would like to
keep values in check, since the Ozarks air mass will be fairly dry
through the week.

The dry air mass is a result of persistent northeast trajectories
across the Gulf, keeping Gulf moisture at bay the entire week.

Models all show the main belt of westerlies to remain positioned
over the northern Plains heading into next weekend. More quiet and
warm weather is likely if this regime materializes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. An upper
level disturbance will move into the region late in the taf period
with an increase in clouds with vfr ceilings. Some spotty light
rain may also occur, but chances are not high enough to include in
the tafs.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA






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