Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 140723
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
223 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Early morning thunderstorms possible in southeast Kansas into
  west central and central Missouri. Some large hail and
  damaging winds possible.

- Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of 5) for severe storms this
  afternoon into the evening. Hail up to the size of baseballs
  and damaging wind gusts up to 60-70 mph are possible. There is
  also a low chance for a tornado or two. The greatest threat
  is along and south of I-44.

- Generally dry weather through the remainder of the period.
  Some near freezing to sub freezing temperatures possible
  Monday morning and Tuesday morning.

&&


.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Current conditions and synoptic overview: A cluster of
thunderstorms has developed just east of Wichita shortly after
midnight in advance of an upper level shortwave over western
Kansas and dryline in the vicinity. This activity is shifting
northeast and will push into southeast Kansas and west central
Missouri overnight. An area of surface low presssure was located
over eastern Kansas with a warm front extending east across
northern Missouri. Temperatures across the warm sector over our
CWA were in the mid 60s with dew points in the upper 50s. Water
vapor imagery and upper air analysis showed a cutoff low over
the Great Basin with broad diffluent flow out of the southwest
across the area.

Rest of the overnight into this morning: HREF progs continue to
transition the convection over eastern Kansas to the northeast
which may affect a small portion of our CWA which is currently
under a severe thunderstorm watch until 6 AM. Hail to the size
of golf balls and 60 mph winds will be possible with the
stronger storms which will likely be confined in our area to
southeast Kansas into west central and central Missouri.
Weakening should take place towards sunrise as it moves into
central Missouri.

This afternoon and tonight: Morning heating ahead of a
dryline/cold front in eastern Kansas will increase instability
over the area by the early afternoon. This combined with a broad
area of upper level diffluence should lead to convective
intitiation by early to mid afternoon over the area with the
main area expected along and southeast of the I-44 corridor.
Initial potential for supercells during the afternoon and early
evening with all modes of severe weather possible. The highest
risk will be with large hail to the size of baseballs. 60 to 70
mph winds and isolated tornadoes will also be possible. More
mixed mode storms with storm clusters and line segments will be
possible for the late evening into part of the overnight as this
convection shifts out of the area. Any repeat convection over
the same areas could lead to some localized isolated flooding.

Friday: A drier air mass will build into the area on Friday with
surface high pressure and all convection likely shifted
southeast of the area by Friday morning. Highs will be cooler in
the mid 50s to low 60s.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Friday night - Sunday: Upper level cutoff low over the southwest
U.S. will not move much during this period as it remains caught
underneath a high amplitude ridge axis. On the front side of the
ridge, a northern stream jet will dive south into the plains.
Another cold front will push through the area late Saturday into
Saturday night, but this front should come through dry.

Sunday night - Tuesday: A Canadian air mass will then push into
the area behind the cold front. Lows by Monday morning will be
in the upper 20s in central Missouri to the low 30s near
freezing over far southern Missouri. Highs on Monday will only
be in the upper 40s to low 50s. Lows by Tuesday morning will be
coldest in the east to mid to upper 20s and low to mid 30s in
the west. The surface high will shift to the south of the area
on Tuesday with warmer conditions then building back into the
area from the west.

Wednesday: The cutoff low will begin to open up and shift
eastward by the middle of the week and may bring some showers to
the area late in the day Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

For the 06z TAFS, newly forming convection just east of Wichita
should stay north of the TAF sites as it shifts northeast into
southeast Kansas and west central Missouri overnight. Convection
initiation on Thursday is expected in the early to mid afternoon
hours and will continue through the evening hours. Gusty
southerly winds of 15 to 25 kts will be possible through the
day, with the front shifting the winds to the northwest during
the evening. Some strong to severe convection will be possible
and any severe convection could produce variable wind gusts up
to 60 mph with large hail also possible. We are expecting some
stratus to develop towards morning in the MVFR category. Within
the convection some MVFR to IFR conditions are expected.
Clearing will take place late in the TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg


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