Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 260830
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
330 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 255 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

Areas of fog had developed during the early morning hours across
portions of the Ozarks under clear skies. While the fog is not
expected to become dense this morning, some locations in valleys
and near area lakes could see visibilities fall to around a mile
at times.

Clear skies and mild temperatures will make for another
unseasonably warm and pleasant day across the Ozarks. The upper
level ridge that has brought the warmer weather to region this
weekend will continue to slide to the east through tonight. Like
Saturday some locations may see near record highs. See the climate
section below for today`s records.

The ridge will continue to shift east as an upper level trough
begins to move across the western CONUS. Surface low pressure will
develop across the plains and keep southerly winds and warm air
advection in place across the Ozarks overnight tonight.
Temperatures, as a result, will only cool into the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

The upper level system will begin to move across the northern
plains during the day Monday and slowly drag a cold front across
the Ozarks late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Current models
do show the potential for thunderstorms along the front as it
moves through the area. Models only have around 1000 J/kg of cape
but good amounts of shear available for the system. Current
thinking is that the potential for severe weather will be very
limited with an isolated strong storm or two possible. If any
storms can become strong the primary concern would be hail.

Behind the front, a more seasonable, cool airmass will move over
the plains and the Ozarks. A period of dry weather is then
expected for the remainder of the week into next weekend, though a
minor wave may bring a few sprinkles to the region on Thursday.

The cool airmass will be reinforced by the end of the week as
northwesterly upper level flow will develop as an enhanced ridge
moves across the western CONUS. This will allow a broad, cold
Canadian high pressure system to move into the area. There is the
possibility for the Ozarks to see temperatures fall into the lower
30s during the mornings next weekend. Will need to keep an eye on
this setup for the possibility of the season`s first frost or
freeze.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through Sunday evening. The
only minor change with this TAF update is to include a TEMPO group
from 10z to 14z in the morning for some MVFR 5sm visibilities
potential. Skies will remain clear through tomorrow night with
southerly winds becoming somewhat gusty for JLN and SGF midday to
afternoon on Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 328 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Record high temperatures:

           10/26
         Today(Sun)

SGF       86/1891
JLN       87/1950
UNO       84/1950
VIH       84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Griffin
CLIMATE...Hatch





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