Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 302331 AAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
631 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015
...00Z AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
An upper level ridge is currently located over the western U.S.
this afternoon with an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. The
area remains in between, in an upper level northwest flow pattern
and will remain this way into the weekend. An upper level
disturbance is currently pushing southeast into the northern
Plains this afternoon. These features will continue to dive
southeast tonight and across the area on Wednesday.
A complex of storms is expected to develop across northeastern
Kansas/northwestern Missouri late this evening and track southeast.
The exact track of this complex of storms will depend on exactly
where it develops. A Theta-E gradient will setup across central
Missouri and we feel the complex will track very close to this
gradient, which corfidi vectors would also support. Therefore,
expect the complex to track generally along and east of a Warsaw
to Salem Missouri line tonight into Wednesday morning. Instability
will be increasing from the south but will be more elevated in
nature ahead of this complex. A few strong storms with hail to the
size of nickels and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible, but the
widespread severe risk is on the low side overnight.
The complex of storms will continue to track across the eastern
Ozarks and weaken during the morning hours Wednesday. The upper
level disturbance will continue to track south into the area on
Wednesday. Redevelopment of storms is expected Wednesday
afternoon/early evening ahead of the disturbance and along any
outflow boundaries from the overnight storms generally along and
south of I-44. Moderate instability will develop with heating of
the day and deep layer shear will increase with the approach of
the upper level disturbance. This will allow for the potential of
severe storms Wednesday afternoon/evening generally south of I-44.
These storms will push south of the area Wednesday evening. Low
level shear will be weaker in nature so the main severe risk with
these storms will be damaging straight line winds and hail to the
size of quarters. Another complex of storms is then expected to
develop and track southeast across central and south central MO
Wednesday evening and night.
Precipitable water values will be around 2 inches, so heavy
rainfall will occur with these storms tonight into Wednesday night.
The heaviest rainfall totals are expected across central
Missouri as they are expected to be impacted by heavy rain both
tonight and Wednesday night. Therefore, will issue a Flash Flood
Watch for central Missouri for tonight through Wednesday night.
Depending on the exact track of the complexes the watch may need
to be expanded a little farther south and west Wednesday night.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at
320 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
A complex of storms should be pushing out of the area early
Thursday morning with just a few lingering storms possible across
southern Missouri during the morning hours.Scattered storms will
be possible Thursday afternoon, mainly across southern Missouri.
The region will remain in a northwestern upper level flow pattern
late this week through the weekend. Several weak disturbances will
bring chances for scattered storms to the area everyday. However,
not expecting total washouts each day as this activity will be
scattered in nature.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
VFR conditions will prevail through the majority of the forecast
period at all three TAF sites. A complex of thunderstorms will
form over Northwest Missouri and slide southeast overnight
possibly affecting SGF after 09z. JLN and BBG will likely remain
dry. There is some uncertainty in the track of this complex of
Winds look to remain light and variable throughout this evening
before becoming more southerly overnight. Low level wind shear
looks possible at all three TAF sites overnight. A break will
occur during the morning and early afternoon hours Wednesday
before other thunderstorms develop along a front and enter the
area. Winds tomorrow will become quite gusty out of the southwest.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 1 AM CDT Wednesday through Thursday
morning FOR MOZ055>058-069>071-083.