Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 281732 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1132 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Wednesday night)

It was a quiet night over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures dropped into the teens across the
Osage Plains, with readings in the 20s elsewhere where cloud cover
existed.

Northerly breezes were observed in the wake of a cold front that
moved through yesterday.

For today, look for mostly cloudy skies with highs in the middle
to upper 30s. All precipitation has shifted east of the region,
and dry weather is expected dominate middle America the next few
days.

Perhaps the next weather item to anticipate is a Canadian air mass
that will approach the Ozarks Tuesday. This will limit
temperatures from warming out of the 20s and 30s Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoons. Overnight lows will fall into the teens,
with single digit wind chills during the overnight hours. We will
mention this within this morning`s Hazardous Weather Outlook.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Saturday)

We`re still on track to experience some active weather starting as
early as Thursday night, and continuing into Saturday.

First of all, analyzing the dprog/dt of both the GFS and ECMWF is
worth a look. The mass fields are all over the place with the
storm track from run to run. I`m assuming more big changes are
expected with future runs, so determining precipitation type and
amounts from Thursday night into Saturday remains a big challenge
at this point.

When looking at the latest guidance, both the GFS and ECMWF shift
the storm track a lot further north, bringing warm air back into
the region by Friday. This would create more of a rain event from
Friday into Saturday, with a risk of some snow or sleet initially
Thursday night.

In the wake of the late week storm system, another shot of
Canadian air will spill into the Ozarks. Temperatures will drop
back into the teens Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours.
Large swath of high clouds will gradually exit the area from west
to east this afternoon. Surface high pressure moving into the
region will result in light/variable winds into tonight, with an
eventual shift to an easterly direction.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan





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