Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 050011
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
711 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

...Update to Aviation Discussion for 00Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Surface high pressure will build into the region tonight and
Thursday as the upper level trough transitions eastward. This will
result in lighter surface winds. Temperatures Thursday will be
near seasonal levels.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed May 4 2016

A warming trend will begin Friday and continue into Saturday as
500 MB heights rise and southerly winds return. Highs will climb
into the lower 80s at most locations by Saturday while southerly
winds increase.

The next upper level trough will begin to makes its way across the
southern Rockies this weekend while a front attempts to sink
southward into the region. A lead shortwave will makes it way
across the Plains Sunday and interact with deepening moisture to
produce at least a chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday and
more so Sunday night.

The increasingly unsettled weather pattern will continue into
Monday as the upper level trough and associated cold front push
slowly eastward across the Plains. Will have to monitor the
potential for severe weather on Monday if sufficient instability
develops in advance of neutral to negative tilted trough.

The forecast becomes more messy heading through next week with the
passage of disturbances and associated fronts every couple of
days. This makes pinpointing the timing and coverage of
precipitation difficult this far out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed May 4 2016

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: VFR conditions will occur at
the TAF sites this evening through the day Thursday and beyond, as
highs pressure moves over the region. The gusty winds that occur
this afternoon, will weaken fairly quickly early this evening
around sun set and will be light out of the northwest through the
overnight hours. Late Thursday morning and afternoon winds will
remain out of the northwest but will increase some and could see
gusts over 15kt at times, especially at the KSGF and KBBG sites.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise



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