Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 181205
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
605 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 155 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Cold front had pushed through the northern part of Kansas City and
through Wichita as of 07z this morning. Winds behind the front in
Kansas have been gusting 30 to 35 kts already. Some showers have
been developing across northern into central Missouri, but north
of the CWA. A strong upper level jet of 120-130 kts was located
from the Rockies into northern Missouri. There is some elevated
instability over the area as well.

Main focus with this forecast will be with 1) winds today behind
the front, 2) convective potential today and 3) clearing and
diminishing of wind later today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 155 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Front will start moving into the CWA by 10-11z with surface low
tracking northeast across the northern CWA through around 13z.
Most if not all of the precipitation will be post-frontal in
nature with the main stronger convection potential expected this
afternoon, but east of the CWA. Shower activity will be most
likely across the northern CWA over central MO this morning
through the mid afternoon. Can`t rule out an isolated lightning
strike or two with some weak instability, but most of the activity
will be showers.

The wind will be the main weather story today and we have a wind
advisory in effect from 6 AM to 5 PM. Sustained winds behind the
front of 25 to 30 mph and gusts to around 45 mph will be possible.
Wind should diminish fairly quickly by early evening as the
surface low races off to the northeast and high pressure builds
in.

Our temperatures will NOT follow the normal diurnal curve today
with strong cold air advection and cloud cover most of the day
causing steady or dropping temperatures. Western portions of the
CWA may see clearing earlier in the afternoon and have a
temperature rise for a bit, but highs will certainly be this
morning prior to the frontal passage.

We should clear out in most areas by 00z, with a clear sky and
diminishing wind tonight across the area. Temperatures should drop
down into the low 30s tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 155 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

The upcoming holiday week looks to be dry across the CWA. Another
cold front is expected to push through the area on Tuesday, but
very little moisture will be over the area for any precipitation
generation.

Temperatures will generally be in the 40s and 50s for highs and in
the 20s and 30s for lows through Friday.

Thanksgiving day will start off on the cool side with temperatures
in the upper 20s with temperatures rising into the low to mid 50s
with surface high pressure over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 552 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

A strong cold front will push through the region this morning
bringing lowering ceilings along with scattered showers and
pockets of drizzle. Flight categories will quickly drop to MVFR
behind the front with IFR likely around Joplin and Springfield by
late morning.

Ceilings will then quickly improve late this afternoon with
precipitation shifting east of the area. Skies will then clear by
evening with VFR expected overnight tonight.

Brisk and gusty southwest surface winds will become strong and
gusty out of the northwest behind the front this morning. Gusts
over 35 knots are expected. Winds will then quickly diminish
around sunset.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CST this afternoon for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CST this afternoon for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann



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