Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 240522
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1122 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014
A few welcome peeks of sunshine have been observed today as the
area is nestled between two upper level storm systems. The main
upper low remains parked over Iowa, meanwhile, an upper low is
beginning to round the base of the longwave trough over southern
Texas. These features will play the main role in our forecast over
the next 24 hours.
The breaks in our overcast will not last long as moisture begins
to increase at multiple levels tonight. Mid/high level moisture
will quickly stream in from the south while lower level moisture
(in the form of a stratus deck) slowly enters from the northwest.
Model trends the past day or so continue to suggest that a band of
rain will clip south central Missouri tonight. The 12z consensus
continues with this idea, though south central Missouri looks to
be on the western periphery of the main axis of rain. With
temperatures slowly falling in the mid/upper 30s through the
night, things will remain wet and not white.
Attention then turns to the main upper level trough axis to our
west. This will begin to move east later tonight, more so on
Wednesday. A swath of precipitation coincident with the trough
axis will move west to east across the area. The big question
remains, what precip type(s) can we expect? Cloud ice looks to be
present and the vertical profile supports snow - up until you get
close to the surface (between the ground and say 500-1000 feet).
In this layer, temperatures will remain at/above freezing with
surface temperatures in the mid 30s common Wednesday morning. As a
result, some rain will mix with this snow.
Finally, the combination of light snowfall rates during the day
and temperatures in the mid/upper 30s through the day, any
accumulation is going to be tough to come by. A small scale,
localized band of brief moderate snow is plausible coincident
with the greatest lift, thus a dusting of snow on grassy/elevated
surfaces is plausible. But it will be fleeting. Once snow stops,
melting should quickly begin. Have gone with a dusting (less than
half an inch) for areas generally along and northwest of the I-44
corridor. A few slushy spots on roads cannot be ruled out, though
this should be the exception rather than the rule.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 137 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014
Snow flurries will wrap up early in the evening from west to east
across the Missouri Ozarks and skies will clear by late evening.
Temperatures will be colder down into the middle to upper 20s
especially where the clouds clear out quickest.
Christmas Day looks pleasant and milder but it will be on the
breezy side. Gusty southerly winds will return along with abundant
sunshine for Christmas Day. Temperatures will be above average in
the upper 40s to lower 50s. Clouds and moisture will begin to
increase on Friday ahead of the next weather system moving out of
the Four Corner`s Region. Showers will develop by Friday evening
and Friday night.
A cold front will slowly move through the area late Friday night
into early Saturday morning. The medium range guidance is different
among solutions on timing...temperatures...and precip from
Saturday morning through Saturday evening. The 12z GFS is the
quickest and driest of the solutions...while the ECMWF and GEM is
more bullish on QPF. There is differences on how fast the cold air
arrives and how thick it will be as well.
At this time will mention the potential for rain changing over to
a light wintry mix Saturday through Saturday evening. This system
will need to be watched over the next few days and for trends in
the models. We will have a better handle of this weekend system in
the next couple of days.
A deep trough develops over the central and eastern U.S. early
next week with much colder air moving in. There are signs that
some Arctic air will try to move southward out of Canada. Will
also have to watch for any disturbances in the upper level flow
that could bring precip to interact with that cold air middle of
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1117 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG airports: Lower ceilings will occur over
the next few hours with the approach and passage of an upper level
disturbance. Some drizzle/light rain/light snow will be possible
with IFR cat ceilings, and maybe briefly IFR visibility as well with
heavier drizzle or light snow. Conditions are expected to
gradually improve after 18z as the disturbance shifts off to the