Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 241734
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1134 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Northwest winds will be a little breezy today, with gusts up to 30
mph, particularly in areas near the Kansas and Missouri border.
Otherwise expected a dry conditions with highs ranging from the
lower 40s to the lower 50s. The warmer temperatures will occur in
far southwest Missouri.
Temperatures will drop well below freezing tonight as another shot
of Canadian air spread across the region. Look for overnight lows
falling into the middle 20s in most locations.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
An extended period of dry weather is forecasted through the entire
work week and upcoming weekend.
Deep northwest flow will become established across most of the
United States. This pattern will stick for several days, shutting
down the Gulf of Mexico.
We could see a couple of frontal passages this week. This first
one occurring on Wednesday, and another late in the weekend.
Ultimately temperatures will be slightly below normal this week,
with readings warming into the 40s on an afternoon basis. Lows
will range from the 20s to the 30s.
Beyond our seven day forecast, a major pattern change is progged
by both the operational GFS and ECMWF models. Southwest flow
evolves bringing an unseasonable amount of moisture and warmth
back into the Ozarks. This could set the stage for some active
weather about 9 to 10 days from now. Much could change in the
models, but it`s something to monitor with time.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014
West to northwest winds gusting over 20 mph will affect area
airports through the afternoon. Will also see some cold air
stratocumulus developing mainly over Joplin and Springfield
through the afternoon east of the 500 mb trough axis. Have
included some tempo ceilings just above mvfr to account for this.
Once afternoon mixing subsides and the 500 mb trough axis shifts
east of the area...we should stay vfr through the rest of the
forecast period. Expect winds to stay up at 5-10 knots through the
night...but could see some fog develop around Branson if winds
drop out with saturated ground and strong radiational cooling.