Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 011704
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1204 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2015

...Short Term and 18Z Aviation Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

Have added a very low end chance for showers/thunderstorms across
central Missouri for this afternoon. A weak mid level impulse
will continue to move south across northern and northeastern
Missouri. Higher theta-e air is in place north of the Ozark
Plateau, and this combined with the mid level wave may be just
enough to kick off a couple of storms this afternoon. Activity
should be quite isolated and dissipate by sunset.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 254 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

It is a fairly quiet morning across the Missouri Ozarks with
mostly clear skies and temperatures rather pleasant in the lower
to middle 60s. Today will be almost a carbon copy of yesterday`s
weather. Temperatures will be in the lower 90s. Humidity values
will still be rather low which means the heat index will be near
the actual air temperature. The latest HiRes short term models
like the HRRR and ARW show a very small potential for a spotty
shower developing this afternoon across the central Missouri area
down into the eastern Ozarks. Not sold on this potential at this
time and will only leave in a silent 10 percent chance for this
happening this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

For the end of the weekend into early next week...The upper level
ridge remains west of the region with the center near the west
Texas area and the Missouri Ozarks region will be in a northwest
flow. Southerly winds at the surface will help bring back the
humidity and low level moisture. Temperatures will gradually
increase a degree or two each day with most areas reaching the
lower to middle 90s by Monday. The heat index will climb back into
the upper 90s to around 100 possible.

The weather pattern becomes somewhat unsettled by the middle of
next week. The first of a couple mid level shortwaves will move
across the top of the ridge over the western U.S. early next week.
This shortwave looks fairly decent and will impact the area on
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. The latest guidance has
moved up the timing a little bit since the previous runs. A weak
frontal boundary also will be stalled out across the Missouri
Ozarks for the middle of next week.

Another impulse will affect the area late Thursday into Friday.
Will not get too specific with timing this far out but it does
appear that there will be several rounds of thunderstorms possible
Tuesday through Friday for the area with a more active weather
pattern likely. Temperatures will also be slightly lower for the
middle and end of next week with highs in the middle to upper 80s.
Overall average rainfall will be in the 1 to 2 inch range for next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR conditions are expected at all three terminals through the
next 24 hours. Winds will remain light and variable through the
night at all terminals, with southwesterly breezes developing by tomorrow
morning at JLN.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Boxell
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Boxell





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