Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 311735
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1135 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2015

...Short Term Update and 18Z Aviation Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1049 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

Have updated PoPs this morning to account for a slower onset of
precipitation. Morning RAOBs from SGF, LZK, and SHV all indicate a
robust area of dry air between the surface and about 5 kft AGL.
With winds from the south-southeast in this layer, additional dry
air advection is occurring, off-setting (or at least slowing) top
down saturation.

Expect to see light rain showers gradually increase across western
and west central Missouri and southeastern Kansas heading into
this afternoon, with a gradual expansion to the west late this
afternoon and this evening. Rain will increase in both coverage
and intensity close to midnight, as the best lift arrives in the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Sunday night)

Lower Pacific moisture was streaming into the nation`s midsection
this morning in advance of a large upper level low centered over the
Desert Southwest.

Light precipitation resulted over Kansas and western Missouri. We
think this will continue to saturate the lower trop, setting up
additional rainfall later this afternoon.

Areas along and north of Interstate 44 will experience the best
chances for measurable rain today, with the lower chances in far
south central Missouri.

Perhaps the best coverage and heavier rainfall will occur tonight
with the approach of a shortwave trough translating through the
northern belt of westerlies. We increased POPS for tonight up
to 100 percent for all areas.

A cold front will shift across the region on Sunday, cooling
temperatures sufficiently for a brief change over to snow. Any
snow that falls looks to be light, and may have a difficult time
accumulating given the warm ground temperatures. Therefore on
Sunday, we think there could be a risk for minor accumulations up
in central Missouri. However, the deepest snow will occur up into
the corn belt of Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana.

All precipitation exits the Ozarks by early Monday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

Zonal flow aloft quickly evolves by Monday afternoon allowing for
southerly winds to return. This warm advection pattern will bring
dry weather and temperatures in the mid to upper 40s both Tuesday
and Wednesday.

By Wednesday afternoon, a Canadian front will shift across the
region, bringing cooler air and a chance for snow. Mid level
frontogenesis increases creating the best chances for snow during
the Wednesday night and Thursday morning period. Temperatures will
be cool enough for snow, and we could see widespread accumulations
across the region by Thursday morning.

Northwest flow resumes heading toward the end of the week with
an upper level ridge building in from the southwest. This will
bring more temperature swings to the Ozarks with unseasonably warm
weather likely next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

Flight conditions will deteriorate over time across the region as
widespread begins to move into the area later this afternoon and
evening. Ceilings should gradually lower to MVFR and then IFR
late tonight, with visibility dropping to around 3 miles or so in
the heaviest areas of rain.

A cold front will then arrive mid to late morning tomorrow, with
winds shifting to west-northwest and increasing significantly as
it passes. Lingering rain showers will likely begin to mix with
and perhaps eventually change over to all snow late in the TAF
period.  No accumulations are expected.



&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Boxell
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Boxell





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