Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 311643
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1143 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...18z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

An upper level shear axis has shifted south of the Missouri Ozarks
overnight. This feature has been the focus for convection over the
past couple of days, including the flash flooding observed along Brushy
and Beaver Creeks yesterday morning.

The radar has been clear this morning, and we don`t believe there
will be much of a coverage for rainfall today with the upper
shear axis over Arkansas. Therefore, we will keep pops very low,
but not completely zero since afternoon instability does unfold
with little inhibition. Look for temperatures to warm into the
upper 80s and lower 90s.

Not much will change tonight with nearly all locations expected to
remain dry. Overnight lows will fall into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

Despite the upper level belt of westerlies taking a trip north
into Canada, a weakness persists underneath the mean ridge. Model
data continues to show quiet weather for the Ozarks Region,
although we will need to watch the weakness / shear axis through
the work week for any convective development. As of now, we`re
pretty bearish on precipitation chances this week, with afternoon
temperatures warming into the upper 80s and lower 90s on a daily
basis.

There are indications that that a deep trough develops across the
Pacific Northwest during the upcoming weekend. This will
strengthen the upper ridge of the nation`s midsection, creating
above average temperatures for early September for Saturday and
Sunday.

Overall quiet weather over the next week or so with above average
temperatures. Have a great week !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR will prevail through tomorrow morning. Skies will be mostly
clear and a light southerly breeze 10 knots or less.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Griffin


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