Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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369
FXUS63 KSGF 160745
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
245 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Southwest upper level flow will continue through tonight as a rather
vigorous mid level trough rotates through the northern Plains and
into southern Canada by tonight. This will push a surface cold front
towards eastern Kansas late today and into the forecast area
tonight. Main forcing will remain well to the north of the area, but
expect enough convergence along the front to spawn scattered
convection towards evening to our west and north and then spread
into southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks through the overnight
hours. With instability waning as these storms move into the area,
do not expect anything severe at this point, but cannot rule out a
couple of strong storms over portions of southeast Kansas. However,
some badly needed rain looks to fall, with amounts generally between
one quarter and one half inch in areas north and west of a Lake of
the Ozarks to Joplin line, with lesser amounts further south and
east.

With the persistent low level southerly flow and pressure gradient
another warm and breezy day is on tap, with highs once again in the
upper 80s to around 90 and overnight lows just in the 60s to around
70.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

The front becomes somewhat diffuse over the forecast area on Sunday
and this combined with several weak impulse in the southwesterly
flow will continue the chances for showers/storms throughout much of
the day and into Sunday night and Monday morning.

In fact, the overall pattern changes little over the course of the
week with a persistent southwesterly flow all the way through
Friday. Medium range models all indicate periodic shortwaves
traversing through the flow bringing chances for showers/storms each
day. The models do diverge a bit towards the end of the week with
regards to another rather vigorous upper level trough that digs into
the northern Rockies so confidence levels lower beyond Wednesday.

A continuation of above normal temperatures are expected as we head
into the latter part of September with readings some 5 degrees
above seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Pilots can expect VFR conditions tonight through Saturday at area
terminals. Gusty southerly surface winds will resume on Saturday
with gusts to around 25 kts. The potential for storm development
will have to be monitored for late tonight into early Saturday
morning across eastern Kansas. It appears this activity will
remain west of the terminal sites if it develops.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Foster



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