Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 190836

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
336 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Southwesterly flow aloft and southerly flow at the surface will
bring Gulf moisture into the Ozarks through today as a cold front
approaches the region. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to
spread north into the area and slowly increase in coverage through
the day today and into tonight in the warm sector. Rainfall
amounts initially will be light with around quarter inch potential
through this evening.

A low level jet will begin to push into western Missouri this
evening and overnight which will aid storm development. While an
isolated strong storm may occur, no severe weather is currently
expected. The cold front will move into the Ozarks overnight
tonight into early Saturday morning with precipitation expected
across the region in advance of the front. Rain amounts are
currently expected to be from a half and inch to an inch though a
few locations may see slightly higher amounts.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

THe cold front will move through the region during the morning
hours Saturday and will move south into Arkansas by early in the
afternoon. Some post frontal showers may linger into Saturday
afternoon, but improving conditions should occur by Saturday
evening with a rather pleasant airmass moving into the area behind
the front for Satruday night and into Monday.

A cool and dry surface high, originating in north-central Canada
will move into the plains and the Ozarks behind the cold front and
bring fall-like weather to the area for Saturday evening through
the start of next week. Highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s will
be common across the region.

The surface high will move east of the region through the day
Monday as a shortwave upper level ridge moves over the area. This
will be in response to a storm system that will move across the
rockies and into the plains Monday night. Rain is expected to
spread across the region Tuesday morning as a warm front lifts
north through the area into Wednesday.

Additional showers and storms will then continue into the end of
next week as another cold front approaches the area towards the
end of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

It looks to be a messy next 24 hours for aviation interests. Low
cigs and some fog have already started to form late this evening,
with SGF and BBG likely to spend a good portion of the night
bouncing between low end MVFR and IFR. JLN looks to be on the
northern edge of stratus for much of the night, and have taken
that site to MVFR, though IFR is certainly not out of the
question. Some fog will also be possible at BBG toward morning.

Cigs look to stay MVFR for much of the day on Friday, as a more
moist airmass builds north into the region, and frontal boundary
begins to approach. This combination will likely keep scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the area for much of the day on
Friday. As is often the case, lower cig/vis can be expected in and
around thunderstorms.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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