Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 191733 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

The current forecast for today looks good overall. The only
significant change was to increase sky cover this afternoon as
buffer soundings suggest cu development.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Northwest flow dominates today with weakly unstable profiles in the
northeast and deep mixing elsewhere. Despite this, temperatures will
remain close to average and wind speeds will only top out in the
teens/low 20mph range. A shortwave in west central Canada will
provide more widespread ascent across the northeast this
evening/overnight. There is only 1-200j/kg MUCAPE so not looking for
anything severe.

High pressure dominates Tuesday and we begin to see a gradient
develop in central South Dakota as winds shift to southeast ahead of
the next wave. With loss of daytime heating, this becomes a weak low
level jet across the central Dakotas Wednesday morning. Focus for
this jet is mainly in North Dakota, while the atmosphere across
central South Dakota may see better elevated instability with
upwards of 1500j/kg MUCAPE. Shortwave energy will remain well to the
north so expect only low chance POPs/coverage of convection.

The aforementioned wave continues east on Wednesday, with a plume of
higher 850mb dewpoints/temperatures extending into the CWA. A
surface front will move rapidly to the east. Convection may develop
across our east in the afternoon before moving off into Minnesota.
Low level turning is evident, with speed shear, and mid level flow
is mainly westerly so would expect anything that forms will move
rapidly east as well.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Pcpn chances are probably the main forecast challenge in the long
term. The period starts off with energy digging a broad trof into
the Northern Plains, with several pieces of energy crossing the area
during that time. This energy aloft will bring sct showers to the
area for Thursday through Saturday, but little if any severe weather
is anticipated. Conditions should dry out over the last half of the
weekend as ridging aloft translates into the forecast area. The
broad troffing should also serve to usher in a cooler airmass for
the weekend, with below normal temperatures expected at that time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

VFR conditions are expected for all terminals through the valid
taf period. Breezy northwesterly winds and afternoon clouds will
dissipate around sunset. A storm system tracking southeast across
the region tonight could bring thunderstorms and gusty winds to
the terminals of KABR/KATY. Thunderstorm confidence is low so will
leave vcts out of the tafs.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...SD



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