Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 190523 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1223 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Issued at 854 PM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016

Isolated showers had dissipated early this evening. Otherwise, a
cold front had pushed into northern SD this evening and will bring
a cooler day for Wednesday. Also, the satellite was showing mid
level clouds spreading into central SD this evening. Made some
adjustments and updated the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 643 PM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016

00z aviation discussion updated below.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016

A surface cold front currently over southern ND will gradually
sinking southward across this CWA tonight. This front, along with a
broad upper level trough should bring slightly below normal
temperatures to the area through the short term portion of the

A weak shortwave will track southeast across the region late
Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. There is decent LLM
associated with this system which should result in light rain over
central SD. While temperatures may drop into the lower 30s, thermal
profiles suggest an all liquid event.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016

Mid level ridging will be dominant over the area through much of the
long term period. The ridge does begin to break down at the very
tail end of the extended as a shortwave trough tracks across the
Northern Plains on Tuesday.

A surface front will be just west of the CWA when the period begins,
and will track across the CWA Friday into Friday evening. A few
models indicate there could be some light rain showers with the
front, but the majority do not, and with no upper level support in
place, will leave that time period dry. The remainder of the period
that will be influenced by the mid level ridge looks to be dry as
well. A low pressure system will track across the Central Plains on
Tuesday, and with the aforementioned shortwave also moving through,
will see a better chance for some rain showers Tuesday into Tuesday

Generally looking at above normal temperatures through the period,
with highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s. Overnight lows will be in
the mid 30s to lower 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

For the most part VFR conditions are expected through the valid
taf period. However, there is a caveat. A deck of MVFR stratus up
north may sneak into the KABR/KMBG areas late tonight, but model
data is inconclusive at this time so will met-watch that deck.




LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...TDK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.