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000
FXUS63 KABR 160846
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
346 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION/SEVERE CHANCES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.

A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. WHILE CAPE VALUES ARE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE FOR MUCH OF THIS
CWA...THERE IS DECENT ML-CAPE VALUES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 AFTER 18Z. WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF
SOME THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THIS CWA BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH AN INCREASING LLJ
TONIGHT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE I-29
CORRIDOR. PCPN SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BETWEEN 15-18Z FRIDAY WITH
THE REST OF THE DAY BEING MOSTLY DRY AND WARM. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. WARM TEMPERATURES AT H7 OF 9C WILL CAP OFF
CONVECTION UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. BASED ON THE
NAM12...STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A DRY
LINE OVER THE BLACK HILLS. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE DUE EAST ALONG
AN INSTILITY AXIS WHICH WOULD CLIP THE SOUTHWEST CWA.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
WAA ALONG WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
WITH HIGHS LIKE REACHING THE MID 80S. THIS WARM AIR ALONG WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL PRODUCE ML-CAPE VALUES OVER 4000 J/KG.
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KNOTS PLUS OVER 1000 J/KG
IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...LARGE HAIL SEEMS HIGHLY POSSIBLE. BASE
ON THE VGP AND 0-3KM HELCITY...TORNADOES COULD BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL. MAY NEED TO ADD SEVERE MENTION INTO THE FORECAST IN THE NEAR
FUTURE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES WHEN THE PERIOD
STARTS...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING UP THE EAST SIDE OF IT AND
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TROUGH BECOMES A CLOSED LOW THAT
WILL SPIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY BEFORE GETTING PUSHED EAST AHEAD OF A BUILDING RIDGE.

AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS SATURDAY
EVENING...THEN PUSHES EASTWARD AND SPINS UP OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WIDE OPEN GULF WILL
ALLOW FOR AMPLE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH FAIRLY POTENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ENTIRE CWA IS CURRENTLY
IN THE DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK. WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AROUND...A 40-45 KT LLJ NOSING ITS WAY OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE CWA...AND H7 TEMPERATURES ONLY AROUND
+8...EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE STORMS AROUND SATURDAY
EVENING. GENERALLY LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
AFTER THAT WITH THE GFS KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF DROPS HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY CONDITION OVER THE REGION. WILL STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES...WHICH BEGIN TO TAPER OFF DRASTICALLY BY
TUESDAY NIGHT.

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES OCCURRING ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WHEN ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION LOOK TO HINDER
WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN