Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 201532 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1032 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MID LEVEL VORT MAX LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST SD THIS MORNING. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWING ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE IS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST SD. WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING...BEFORE GOING WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS APPEAR ON
TRACK AND NO CHANGES THERE. HAD TO TWEAK SKY COVER A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR LONGER DURATION OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING...BUT
STILL EXPECTING DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SHOWERS SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN
SD. SO FAR NO OBS IN OUR CWA HAVE REPORTED ANY
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONTOGENETIC
BAND THAT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA...STILL THINK
LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF POPS ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ALMOST THE ENTIRE REGION BACK INTO THE 60S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ABUNDANT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH AS
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WINDS WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DO SNEAK BACK INTO THE VERY FAR SOUTHWEST CWA BY
FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...BUT MODELS KEEP TRENDING
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS WELL...WITH
HIGH TEMPS BACK IN THE 70S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WHEN THE PERIOD
BEGINS. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS...PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AND OVER THE CWA
SATURDAY...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LESSEN ON MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A LOW END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BACK
TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
THE PRECIPITATION...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
WARMER AIR WILL THEN RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
BACK UP INTO THE 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN


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