Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 250542 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1142 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

REMOVED POPS UNTIL AROUND 10Z FOR PIERRE AND SOUTH. IF PRECIP
BEGINS BEFORE THAT THERE IS STILL A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT A WARM
AIR INTRUSION ALOFT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN DRY AND THEN FILL IN WITH
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS. SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

A SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION IS STILL EXPECTED
TO SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREAS OVERNIGHT AND FOR THE FIRST PART
OF WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE A MIX CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CWA WHERE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF KPIR. AS FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS...THE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST IN ALMOST ALL THE
MODELS...MATCHING BETTER THE LATEST TRENDS IN OMEGA/UVM FROM
A COUPLE APPROACHING WAVES. A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES LOOKS LIKELY
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA AND FAR NORTHEAST.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM IT WILL AGAIN TURN VERY COLD WITH HIGHS PROBABLY
ONLY REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS
COLD UNDER SFC HIGH. TNT TEMPS WILL BE TEMPERED A BIT BY CLOUD
COVER AND SHOULD NOT GET TOO COLD. BUT RECOVERY ON WEDNESDAY WILL
ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES AT MOST AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO BE RATHER QUIET WITH
TEMPERATURES BEING THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES. OVERALL THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LOOK TO REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY COLD PATTERN AND EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL. ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY
SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC OUTBREAKS AT THIS TIME. DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO SUPERBLEND TEMPERATURES AS THEY APPEAR FINE FOR THE
TIME BEING. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS DRY.
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND HAS TRENDED A TAD FURTHER SOUTH. THIS
LED TO REMOVAL OF POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

SNOW IS AFFECTING KABR/KMBG WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY. SNOW WILL SPREAD
TO ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 10Z. AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN ON
WEDNESDAY AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE VSBY COULD
FALL TO IFR IN BLOWING SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...WISE







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