Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 252329 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
529 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Issued at 525 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 225 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

So far today, not much pcpn has fallen over the CWA. This may
change overnight as a more robust wave per sat imagery/model pv
charts drops southeast across the region. This wave will produce a
weak sfc wave that is expected to track across southern North
Dakota overnight. Latest UVM progs are not particularly strong and
jet involvement over my area looks somewhat meek, so will keep
pops at chc levels vs likely. It`s also pretty obvious per sat pix
that daytime heating has contributed to a fair amount of
convective looking clouds over western South Dakota, some of this
will die off with the setting sun. However, more consolidated pcpn
looks to be taking shape over the Black Hills, and this should
spread east this evening.

Sunday looks dry and perhaps a touch cooler in the east vs today
behind weak cold front. The southwest CWA will probably recover
enough to match Saturday`s high temperatures given fairly decent
mixing in the low levels per model soundings.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Multiple storm systems should progress across the region in the long
term portion of the forecast. While the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian all
show these storm systems about the same time frame, they differ on
intensity and thus pcpn amounts. An inverted surface trough crossing
the region Monday night through Tuesday should bring the best
potential for pcpn. With the dominant P-type being snow, minor
accumulations could be possible.

A fairly pronounced upper level trough will slide across the region
on Wednesday with pcpn possible. Northwest flow aloft beyond
Wednesday will bring additional, clipper like systems across the
region. The upper level flow pattern could take a brief, drastic
change on Saturday as a strong surface low crosses southern Canada.
Both the GFS and ECMWF show very warm temperatures surging into this
CWA with 925 mb temps possibly reaching the mid teens C. Highs on
Saturday could certainly be warmer than current forecast indicates.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Scattered areas of light to moderate snow bursts will track across
the eastern half of the CWA through the evening hours. Brief
periods of MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys are possible with the stronger
snow bursts. The snow showers will dissipate after sunset, with
VFR conditions then expected overnight and through the day Sunday.




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