Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 052012
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
312 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM ABOUT
PIERRE TO ABERDEEN TO GRAND FORKS. DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND CURRENT ML CAPE VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO OVER 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT...A 100+ KT JET STREAK
IS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MODERATE TO STRONG
VORTICITY ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 500 MB
TROUGH...WITH THE BEST FORCING BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. STORM MODE STILL
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HODOGRAPHS SHOW NICE CURVATURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WHERE HODOGRAPHS BECOME MORE
STRAIGHTLINE. HI RES MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
FORM A MULTICELL LINE AND TRACK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA. MODEL DCAPE REMAINS QUITE HIGH...SO DAMAGING WINDS ARE
CERTAINLY A THREAT...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAIN ALSO REMAINS
A CONCERN GIVEN PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE GREATER THAN 2
INCHES. THE LESSER THREAT LOOKS TO BE ANY SORT OF TORNADIC
DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SPIN UP ALONG THE
LINE OF STORMS TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA...BUT A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. IN FACT...BL DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 40S
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS SLOWLY MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY...MARKING
THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. EC IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND SUGGESTING
A MORE ACTIVE SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE GFS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM
SUPERBLEND POPS WHICH LIMITS CHANCES TO THE WESTERN CWA. PERIOD THEN
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY UNTIL PERHAPS THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WHEN
MODELS TRY TO BRING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE AREA. 850
MB TEMPS GET RATHER WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO SATURDAY.
BUMPED UP HIGHS JUST ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WILL INCLUDE
VCTS MENTION AT THIS TIME UNTIL TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS
BECOME MORE CLEAR. MVFR CIGS/VSBY MAY DEVELOP IN OR NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSING THE AREA TODAY WILL
SWITCH SFC WINDS FROM A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TO MORE OF A
NORTH/NORTHEAST DIRECTION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT



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