Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KABR 212337 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
537 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES...WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE
OVER A SNOW FIELD.

CURRENTLY...UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING
INTO THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS ALSO A
DOWN SLOPE WIND EVENT ONGOING ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LEE OF THE
PRAIRIE COTEAU...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS SHOWING UP ON SOME OF THE LOCAL OBSERVATIONS BETWEEN 40
AND 50 MPH AT TIMES. THIS IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU. TRAVELERS WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD BE ON
THE ALERT FOR SUDDEN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AND AREAS
OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

TONIGHT/SATURDAY...WITH A WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THE AUTOMATIC REACTION/RESPONSE IS TO THINK FOG WILL
FORM. BUT...FOG/LOW STRATUS HAS NOT DEVELOPED OVER THIS CWA EITHER
TIME IT WAS EXPECTED TO OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO WILL BE
BACK PEDDLING TONIGHT AND LEAVE THE OPTION ON THE TABLE FOR THE
EVENING SHIFT TO ADD IN SOME FOG MENTION...IF IT LOOKS LIKE IT`S
STARTING TO DEVELOP. ALSO...WILL BE LEAVING IN THE MENTION OF
BLOWING SNOW IN THE LEE OF THE COTEAU OVERNIGHT AS 0.5KM/925HPA
WINDS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE 20 TO 35 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD. NUDGED THE KABR
FORECAST TEMPERATURE DOWN A GOOD 5 TO 8 DEGREES COLDER THAN
SURROUNDING AREAS GIVEN ITS TENDENCY TO REGISTER COLDER AT NIGHT
IN THESE TYPES OF REGIMES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE
30S AND IN PLACES THE 40S AGAIN ON SATURDAY.



.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

WARM FRONT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
TRYING TO SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIP DURING THIS TIME...MAINLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA. COULD BE DEALING WITH MIXED PRECIP AS WELL AS SFC
TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING AS BETTER WESTERLY MIXING WINDS
DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT QUITE TRICKY AS WILL BE
DEALING WITH WARM AIR MOVING IN BUT ALSO HAVE TO ESTIMATE OVERALL
CLOUD COVER AND WIND SPEEDS WHICH WILL HAVE EFFECTS ON TEMPS.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH
COLDER AIR AND STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT. INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A BIT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...EVEN INTO MONDAY AS WELL.
MODELS DIFFER IN HOW MUCH WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOW THERE WILL BE
OVER EASTERN SD...WITH THE EC BASICALLY DRY AND THE GFS SHOWING
NEARLY AN INCH. STUCK WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AND ALSO INSERTED
SOME BLOWING SNOW GIVEN THE WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE LOW.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT AS EXPECTED THERE ARE STILL MANY
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO SPEED/STRENGTH ETC SO
PRETTY MUCH ACCEPTED SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW UNTIL TIME GETS
CLOSER. ALSO LOOKING AT ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVING IN
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A 1040 MB SFC HIGH SETTLES IN.



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LIGHT FOG AT ABR
AND ATY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.