Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 141127 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
627 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION.
A SHORTWAVE IS PASSING THROUGH MONTANA...BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS IN
THE MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM ARE STILL DRY BELOW 6-8KFT SO THINKING IS
THIS WILL BE LITTLE MORE THAN A BAROCLINIC LEAF...WITH MAYBE A
SPRINKLE OR TWO BUT THAT IS IT. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...H85 READINGS RANGE BETWEEN +2 AND +6C
TODAY...WITH WEAK MIXING. WARM ADVECTION DOES NOT KICK IN UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT...SO TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS PERIOD AS
H85 READINGS JUMP INTO THE +12 TO +18C RANGE.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
THE REGION WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH WAA BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH/FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING
EASTWARD AND LOOKS TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY
WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF HANGS ONTO PRECIPITATION SATURDAY.
THEREFORE...WILL STICK WITH THE SCHC/CHC ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW.
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE COMMON
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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