Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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507
FXUS63 KABR 212124
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
324 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

1030mb high pressure over Montana will continue to slowly slink into
the CWA through the evening. This will set us up for ideal
radiational conditions this evening and into the early overnight
hours. We will see some return flow towards morning, and there is
some wispy high clouds noted upstream but with temperatures in the
mid 20s and dewpoints in the single digits we should have no problem
radiating into the low teens and single digits (the only true
inhibiting factor is the lack of snow cover).

A weak wave, and a nose of mid level warm advection, still appears
in BUFKIT soundings for Wednesday. Still, only around 5 microbars of
lift and intermittent saturation within the dendritic growth zone.
There is also a dry subcloud layer to overcome with any falling
precipitation. Should be little more than a band of mid level clouds
and flurries changing to sprinkles. Did expand low POP coverage a
little but there should be no hazardous impacts with this feature.

As for temperatures, that warm advection push comes with increasing
sunshine west of the James by the early afternoon. Mixed
temperatures from the James yield highs in the upper 40s/low 50s but
readings to the west are closer to mid 60s. The northeast has the
benefit of a lack of sunshine and being the location where the
coldest air lingers the longest, and highs will suffer.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

A mean mid level pattern featuring a west conus ridge/east conus
trof will continue through the long term. Energy coming off the
Pacific does occasionally knock down the ridge, but it has been re-
bounding quickly after the passage of those waves.  The main wave to
affect the Northern Plains over the 2 to 7 day forecast will come
through on Friday. PV anomaly charts indicate a decent looking wave
as does H5 vorticity. Moisture profiles aren`t particularly great,
but likely enough mid level moisture to support some light pcpn.
Temperature profiles indicate a mostly rain event.

The remainder of the long term looks dry until perhaps early the
next work week. Temperatures, overall, will favor above to much
above normal through most of the period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals. Strong northwest
winds will diminish through the day, becoming light overnight,
and shifting to southerly for Wednesday.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Connelly



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