Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 192319 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
619 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 603 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Tornado Watch 487 remains in effect through midnight CDT.
Thunderstorms appear to finally be developing. Parameters
describing how severe storms can become are all rather healthy
this evening, so the concern for large hail, damaging winds and
tornados persists through late this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

The threat for severe storms over the next couple of hours will be
the main forecast challenge.

As of 20Z, an area of low pressure is located over NW North
Dakota with a cold front approaching the Missouri River Valley.
Pre-frontal thunderstorms have developed within the past hour.
This convection developed a bit sooner than expected. An
approaching upper level trough will erode the remaining convective
inhibition with more widespread convection developing within the
next hour or two. Very high 0-6 km bulk shear values and steep low
level lapse rates, very large hail will be possible with some
thunderstorms. 0-1 km bulk shear values, along with high values
over 0-3 km SRH, there is a threat for tornadoes as well with
discrete supercells.

Storms should consolidate into the line of storms after 0Z with
damaging winds and hail becoming the main threat. While PWATS are
exceedingly high, fast storm motion will limit locally heavy
rainfall. The convection should exit this CWA before 9Z with dry
conditions expected on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

The extended period starts off fairly quiet with the region between
high pressure to the east and a low pressure trough over the
Rockies. Dry conditions are anticipated until the trough/front
reaches the area Friday night. The boundary then looks to remain
nearly stationary from the western high plains to the western Great
Lakes through the weekend and into the day Monday, keeping
precipitation chances fairly high. Little in the way of instability,
so expect the precipitation to be generally just rain. High pressure
moves back in Monday night and Tuesday, bringing a return to dry
conditions.

Temperatures will be right around normal on Wednesday, with highs in
the lower to mid 70s. Warmer air moves in Thursday ahead of the
approaching boundary, with highs mainly in the 80s. Will be a fairly
tight temperature gradient on Friday as the front moves in, with
highs ranging from the mid 60s northwest to the mid 80s southeast.
Cooler air then settles in with the precipitation chances over the
weekend and with the high coming in behind it. Highs will be in the
upper 50s to mid 60s Saturday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

A cold front along the Missouri River valley will be picking up
speed here over the next few hours, working east into MN by late
tonight. The low stratus and areas of fog from earlier today have
dissipated and guidance shows that, outside of convection, VFR
conditions are forecast over the next 24 hours. Thunderstorms have
been slow to get going this afternoon in this forecast area, but
it appears that the storms are beginning to fire up in the James
River valley and also back along the cold front over the Missouri
River valley. Some of these storms should become severe, with
large hail, damaging winds and even a tornado or two.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Dorn



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