Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 210832
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
332 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

Quite a contrast across SD, from the 50s dewpoints across much of
the state to mid 70s over the far southeastern corner. Cooler and
breezy conditions will set up over our area today. Temperatures will
be 7-13F lower today that what was observed Tuesday afternoon. The
weather map early this morning features a sfc low across western and
central NE, with a trough extending up through southeastern SD and
southern MN. The main focus for showers through tonight will remain
over our eastern SD and west central MN counties. Looks like the
stratus will hold off until later this afternoon/evening, with
plenty of moisture settling in below 800MB through at least Friday
morning. While it will be difficult to get rid of the slight chance
of thunderstorms, severe weather is not expected through the period.
Low pressure will become better organized across eastern CO/western
NE on Friday, with a warm front riding up across our southern
counties. This will result in the best chance of at least some
clearing over central SD Friday afternoon.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

Mid level ridging will be over the area at the beginning of the
extended period, with a deep trough over the Rockies. Shortwave
energy will begin to swing toward the Northern Plains Friday night,
then settles in over the central part of the country through the end
of the period, keeping shortwave energy over the region.

Friday evening, surface low pressure will be over the western high
plains, with precipitation likely ongoing over parts of the CWA.
There may be a break in the precipitation before the low pushes
northward late Friday night and Saturday, with an elongated band of
precipitation likely developing and tracking across mainly the
central and eastern CWA late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night.
The models differ some on what the low does after that, with the
ECMWF keeping wrap around showers north of the area, while the GFS
keeps the low a bit stronger and drops wrap around precipitation
over the eastern CWA Monday and Monday night. Will stick fairly
close to Superblend during this time. High pressure moves back in
and bring dry conditions on Tuesday.

Saturday will be the warmest day of the period, with highs in the
70s. Cooler air then moves in, with highs in the 60s through the
rest of the long term. After a couple of mild nights with lows in
the upper 50s to mid 60s Friday night, and in the 50s Saturday
night, lows will be the 40s through the rest of the period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

Most locations should experience VFR conditions through the taf
valid period. The exception, KATY. Patchy MVFR/IFR cigs are possible
late tonight and Wednesday morning before lifting to VFR. Rain
showers, and few thunderstorms, are possible across the eastern
CWA beginning late this afternoon and continuing into the evening.


&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Parkin



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